---
title: "The U.S. Congressional Budget Office raises its deficit forecast for the next decade, warning that the fiscal path is unsustainable"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/275636806.md"
description: "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) of the United States has raised its deficit forecast for the next decade by $1.4 trillion, warning that the fiscal path is unsustainable. The main reasons include Trump's 2025 tax law and immigration policy, which are expected to increase the deficit by $4.7 trillion. Although raising import tariffs will bring in $3 trillion in revenue, net interest payments are expected to rise significantly due to increasing debt and interest rates, further pushing up the deficit. The CBO predicts that the deficit as a percentage of GDP will be adjusted to 5.8% in 2026"
datetime: "2026-02-11T16:42:29.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275636806.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275636806.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275636806.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275636806.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275636806.md)


# The U.S. Congressional Budget Office raises its deficit forecast for the next decade, warning that the fiscal path is unsustainable

**The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned again on Wednesday that the United States' fiscal path is unsustainable, raising its deficit projections for the next decade by $1.4 trillion, partly due to Trump's 2025 tax law and immigration policies.**

The CBO stated in its report that Trump's landmark fiscal plan from last July extended his 2017 tax cuts and implemented a series of new tax breaks, which are expected to increase the deficit by $4.7 trillion over the next ten years. The report also noted that the government's immigration enforcement actions are expected to increase spending by $500 billion.

This increase in the scale of the deficits is expected to overshadow the revenue impact from Trump's significant increase in import tariffs. According to economic research estimates, related measures will raise the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. to over 13%, the highest level since at least the 1940s. The CBO expects that the revenue increase from tariffs will reduce the deficit by $3 trillion.

Due to the large scale of debt and rising average interest rates, net interest payments are expected to rise from $1 trillion in 2026 to $2.1 trillion in 2036, which is also expected to push up the deficit.

If the CBO's predictions come true, it will thwart Treasury Secretary Yellen's goal of pushing the deficit toward 3% of GDP before the end of Trump's term. The CBO raised its estimate of the deficit as a percentage of GDP for 2026 from the pre-Trump prediction of 5.5% to 5.8%; the deficit rate for 2028 is expected to be 6%

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