---
title: "Treasury Bonds Elliott Wave Analysis: Poised For Rally"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/275696771.md"
description: "Treasury bond futures are poised for a significant rally, potentially lasting several months. The analysis suggests that the downward trend since 2020 may be complete, with a five-wave pattern indicating support near 82.00. If prices stay above the 2023 low of 82.42, a rally could test resistance levels between 94.60 and 95.20, with higher targets up to 118.90. Conversely, a drop below 82.42 could lead to further declines, with support levels at 75.40 and possibly 65.10 or 55.10."
datetime: "2026-02-12T03:57:42.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275696771.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275696771.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275696771.md)
---

# Treasury Bonds Elliott Wave Analysis: Poised For Rally

Treasury bond futures appear ready for a sizeable bounce that could persist for several months or longer.

Here we show how the same move might appear in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT).

Although we continue to believe the major high in bonds was set in 2020, the downward pattern since that time might be complete. It is possible to count a five-wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) impulsive move into the TLT support zone near 82.00.

If price remains above the 2023 low of 82.42, then a rally should take it to test initial resistance near 94.60 – 95.20, as drawn with the gray path. Moving above that level would serve as initial confirmation of the bounce scenario and would allow for a test of the higher areas shown: 102.50, 106.70 – 107.70, and our preferred upward target at 114.40. A stretch target for the move awaits near 118.90.

The most prominent alternative scenario is that bonds haven’t yet found a low. As shown with the red path, a break beneath 82.42 would allow for a run to the next support at 75.40 and might allow tests of lower supports.

If price declines, then 65.10 appears the most likely area for the downward move to finish, but even a test of 55.10 would be possible.

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