--- title: "HSBC's Bank of China-linked dividends earn 70% without losing to gold; traditional stocks in Hong Kong and the U.S. are thriving. Lin Benli: It's a good opportunity to reduce positions" description: "Lin Benli predicts that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 23,000 and 30,000 points this year, suggesting that investors holding traditional financial and real estate stocks may take the oppor" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/275987801.md" published_at: "2026-02-14T22:06:36.000Z" --- # HSBC's Bank of China-linked dividends earn 70% without losing to gold; traditional stocks in Hong Kong and the U.S. are thriving. Lin Benli: It's a good opportunity to reduce positions > Lin Benli predicts that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 23,000 and 30,000 points this year, suggesting that investors holding traditional financial and real estate stocks may take the opportunity to reduce their holdings and shift towards large technology stocks. He pointed out that despite the rise in gold prices, the returns from holding HSBC and Bank of China are comparable to gold, with returns exceeding 70% over the past year. Lin Benli analyzed the performance of Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, believing that traditional stocks outperform technology stocks, especially in the U.S. oil and telecommunications sectors Lin Benli predicted in March last year in the Sing Tao Daily that once the Hang Seng Index breaks through 25,000 points, rising to 28,000 points would be considered the "minimum consumption." By September last year, he reiterated concerns about the Hang Seng Index rising above 28,000 points. The Hang Seng Index finally broke through 28,000 points at the end of January this year, and Lin Benli admitted that it was a month later than he had predicted. Recently, as the Hang Seng Index adjusted to the 26,000 point level, he reaffirmed his prediction from the end of last year, estimating that the Hang Seng Index would fluctuate between 23,000 and 30,000 points this year. If the United States continues to cut interest rates and the US dollar index falls back to around 90, it is expected that the Hang Seng Index could rise above 30,000 points. He first analyzed the recent situation of Hong Kong stocks, noting that the technology index has fallen more than 20% from its high in October last year, entering a technical bear market. The stocks that have performed well are mainly in traditional finance and real estate, such as HSBC (005), which previously reached HKD 141.5, and New World Development (016), which hit a high of HKD 135.7 last Friday. He mentioned that a similar situation has occurred in the US stock market, where oil stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), as well as telecom stocks like AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), have recently outperformed many technology stocks. ## Buy Large Tech Stocks at Low Prices for Profit Lin Benli openly expressed his preference for young investors who buy technology stocks, noting that in recent months, their investments have lagged behind those of "old investors" who favor traditional stocks. He suggested that students holding these traditional stocks might take the opportunity to "lighten their positions," selling a portion to secure profits, and wait for the market to decline before buying back, using some of the cash to invest in profitable large technology stocks. Additionally, with gold prices recently rising to USD 5,000 per ounce, Lin Benli admitted that even those who do not invest in gold need not feel envious, as compared to the non-yielding gold, holding HSBC and Bank of China (2388) in Hong Kong stocks has yielded substantial profits, with over 70% returns in the past year, comparable to the rise in gold prices during the same period. Looking ahead to the prospects for Hong Kong stocks, Lin Benli maintains his forecast of fluctuations between 23,000 and 30,000 points this year. If the United States continues to cut interest rates and the US dollar index falls, based on past performance, when the Hang Seng Index reaches 30,000 points, the US dollar index has typically been at levels between 89 and 90. ## Pay Attention to Over Ten Economic Indicators At the same time, he provided students with over ten economic indicators for reference, including the US dollar index, the CFETS index for the renminbi, Hong Kong's GDP, net inflows of Hong Kong Stock Connect, bank system balances, and one-month interbank offered rates. The more indicators that meet the targets, the stronger the support for the Hang Seng Index to challenge 30,000 points or even higher levels. **Indicator** **Latest (as of February 13)** **Lin Benli's Target** Hang Seng Index 26,567 30,000 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) 52.3 (January) Above 50 US Dollar Index 96.92 Below 98.5 Renminbi CFETS Index 98.34 Above 96 USD to HKD 7.8166 Below 7.8 RMB to HKD 1.1319 Above 1.144 1-Month HIBOR 2.51464% Below 2.5% HKD Banking System Balance 53.9 billion Above 100 billion Stock Connect (Shanghai and Shenzhen) 67.788 billion (January) Above 40 billion Total Retail Sales Value 35 billion (December) ↑ 6.6% Above 36 billion GDP Growth Rate (Year-on-Year) 3.8% (Q4) Above 2% Unemployment Rate 3.8% (October to December) Below 3% ### Related Stocks - [82824.HK - EFUND GOLD MI-R](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/82824.HK.md) - [517900.CN - China Merchants CSI BANK AH Price ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/517900.CN.md) - [00005.HK - HSBC HOLDINGS](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00005.HK.md) - [513750.CN - GF Fund CSI HK Connect Financials(ex Banks) Thematic ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/513750.CN.md) - [GDXW.US - Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXW.US.md) - [03115.HK - ISHARESHSI](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03115.HK.md) - [SGDM.US - Sprott GLD Miners Etf](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGDM.US.md) - [159920.CN - ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159920.CN.md) - [159887.CN - Fullgoal CSI 800 Banks ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159887.CN.md) - [512700.CN - China Southern CSI Banks ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512700.CN.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 利润向左，净资向右：拆解非上市人身险企业绩的 “面子” 与 “里子” | 2025 年非上市人身险公司净利润大幅增长至 666 亿元，但净资产却缩水近 100 亿元，显示出 “增利不增资” 的结构性背离。综合投资收益率中位数从 8.39% 降至 2.73%。多家险企如中银三星人寿、光大永明人寿等，尽管净利润创历史 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275639038.md) | | REG - 汇丰 GF Sukuk 美元 - 净资产价值 | 汇丰 GF ICAV 全球伊斯兰债券 UCITS ETF 报告截至 2026 年 2 月 11 日的净资产值（NAV）。该基金发行了 898,136,363 股，每股净资产值为 10.3898 美元。自上次估值以来没有股份被赎回。此信息由伦 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275724636.md) | | 股市低迷，印度投资者转而疯抢金银 ETF | 印度市场现 “弃股投金” 趋势：1 月黄金 ETF 资金流入首超股票基金，反映股市低迷下避险情绪升温。小盘股疲软及政府出售国有资产加剧股市压力。与此同时，商业地产 REITs 逆势上涨，而高估值 IPO 遇冷，显示资金正从增长资产向避险与结 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275586785.md) | | 黄金一度跌超 4%、白银暴跌 11%，美股大跌引爆算法交易贵金属卖盘？ | 周四，现货黄金一度下跌 4.1%，白银暴跌 11%。在外界再次担忧巨额 AI 投资能否真正大规模落地之际，美国科技股大跌。分析称，金属价格在疑似算法交易抛售下突然下跌，一些投资者不得不退出包括金银在内的大宗商品仓位，以获取流动性。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275815052.md) | | 西九龙艺术中心计划通过首次债券发行筹集 10 亿美元资金以支持运营 | 香港西九龙文化区管理局计划通过首次债券发行筹集高达 10 亿美元，以资助其运营，因为该局面临持续的财政赤字。指定的承销商包括汇丰银行和渣打集团。该管理局此前依赖门票销售和赞助，尽管面临高债券发行成本和缺乏政府担保等风险，但仍旨在实现财务可持 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275785577.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.