--- title: "How ConocoPhillips’ (COP) Norway Reinvestment and Capital Returns Have Changed Its Investment Story" description: "ConocoPhillips reported lower Q4 2025 earnings but affirmed a $0.84 per share dividend and updated production guidance. The company committed $2.10 billion to restart production at three oil fields in" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276094548.md" published_at: "2026-02-17T05:03:23.000Z" --- # How ConocoPhillips’ (COP) Norway Reinvestment and Capital Returns Have Changed Its Investment Story > ConocoPhillips reported lower Q4 2025 earnings but affirmed a $0.84 per share dividend and updated production guidance. The company committed $2.10 billion to restart production at three oil fields in Norway's Greater Ekofisk area, emphasizing its focus on large, capital-intensive projects. Despite the earnings decline, the investment narrative remains dependent on global oil demand and project execution. Analysts project $57.6 billion in revenue and $10.4 billion in earnings by 2028, with a fair value estimate of $114.74 per share, indicating a potential upside. - In early February 2026, ConocoPhillips reported lower fourth-quarter 2025 earnings year over year, affirmed a first‑quarter 2026 ordinary dividend of US$0.84 per share, updated production guidance, and disclosed further progress on its multi‑year share repurchase program. - The company also committed US$2.10 billion to restart production at three oil fields in Norway’s Greater Ekofisk area, highlighting a sizable long‑term upstream growth project with planned new wells and subsea infrastructure. - Next, we’ll examine how this US$2.10 billion Greater Ekofisk investment fits into and potentially reshapes ConocoPhillips’ existing investment narrative. Uncover the next big thing with 29 elite penny stocks that balance risk and reward. ## ConocoPhillips Investment Narrative Recap To own ConocoPhillips, you generally need to believe in the long term resilience of global oil and gas demand and the company’s ability to turn large, complex projects into cash flow. The latest results show lower earnings year over year but unchanged production guidance and continued buybacks, so the most immediate swing factor still looks like commodity prices, while large project execution risk remains the biggest business challenge. The decision to commit US$2.10 billion to the Greater Ekofisk restart sits squarely in that large project bucket, alongside developments like Willow and LNG ventures. It reinforces how dependent the investment case is on delivering multi year, capital intensive projects on time and on budget, which can amplify both the upside if things go well and the downside if costs creep or timelines slip. Yet behind the steady dividend and new Norway spend, investors should be aware of how concentrated ConocoPhillips still is in large, capital heavy oil and gas projects... Read the full narrative on ConocoPhillips (it's free!) ConocoPhillips' narrative projects $57.6 billion revenue and $10.4 billion earnings by 2028. This implies a 1.0% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $1.2 billion from $9.2 billion today. Uncover how ConocoPhillips' forecasts yield a $114.74 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price. ## Exploring Other Perspectives Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see fair value for ConocoPhillips between US$114.74 and US$286.45 per share, a very wide span of opinion. Set against this, the company’s reliance on major, capital intensive oil and gas projects means execution setbacks could materially affect how those valuation views play out over time. Explore 4 other fair value estimates on ConocoPhillips - why the stock might be worth just $114.74! ## Build Your Own ConocoPhillips Narrative Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd. - A great starting point for your ConocoPhillips research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. - Our free ConocoPhillips research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate ConocoPhillips' overall financial health at a glance. ## Seeking Other Investments? Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now: - AI is about to change healthcare. These 25 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early. - Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 85 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution. - The future of work is here. Discover the 32 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation. *This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. **We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.** It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.* ### **New:** AI Stock Screener & Alerts Our new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities. • Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield) • Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying • High growth Tech and AI Companies Or build your own from over 50 metrics. Explore Now for Free ### Related Stocks - [USO.US - United States Oil Fund LP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [IEZ.US - iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [OIH.US - VanEck Oil Services ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [IXC.US - ISHRS S&P Glb Engy](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [IEO.US - iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [XES.US - SPDR O&G Equip](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [XOP.US - SPDR O&G Ex & Prd](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [XLE.US - SPDR Energy Select](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [COP.US - ConocoPhillips](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/COP.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 为什么康菲石油在一月份实现了两位数的上涨 | 康菲石油因委内瑞拉和伊朗的地缘政治动荡导致油价上涨而上涨 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275434432.md) | | 康菲石油批准了海底天然气开发项目，并批准了一个价值 18 亿美元的项目 | 康菲石油已批准在挪威大埃科菲斯克地区进行 18 亿美元的投资，用于先前生产的油田（PPF）项目，目标是 11 口井和 4 个海底模板，预计在 2028 年第四季度首次产气。该项目将于 2026 年提交监管审批。最近的财报显示每股收益下降至 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275923899.md) | | 花旗银行指出，地缘政治因素将在短期内支撑油价，而和平协议可能会导致价格下降 | 花旗银行预测，由于地缘政治紧张局势，特别是涉及俄罗斯和伊朗，油价在短期内可能会保持支撑。然而，潜在的和平协议可能导致今年晚些时候油价下降，布伦特原油预计将跌至每桶 60-62 美元。该银行指出，近期的制裁和供应中断促成了价格上涨，并预计 O | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276077208.md) | | Expand Energy 的盈利前景展望 | Expand Energy（纳斯达克代码：EXE）定于 2026 年 2 月 17 日公布季度财报，分析师预测每股收益（EPS）为 1.88 美元。投资者对积极的指引抱有希望，尤其是在之前的每股收益超预期后股价却下跌的情况下。目前，股价为 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276067452.md) | | 康菲石油及其合作伙伴计划投资 20 亿美元用于大埃科菲斯克的天然气和凝析油项目 | 康菲石油及其合作伙伴计划投资约 21.1 亿美元，在 2028 年底之前重新启动大埃克菲斯克地区三个油田的生产。该项目名为 “先前生产的油田”（PPF），旨在从 2019 年停产的阿尔布斯基尔、维斯特埃克菲斯克和汤梅利滕伽马油田中提取碳氢化 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275867716.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.