U.S. oil surges 5%! The U.S. and Israel may jointly attack Iran, the White House says negotiations have made progress, but key issues remain far apart

On Wednesday, reports indicated that the U.S. and Israel may launch a joint attack on Iran. The White House stated that progress has been made in U.S.-Iran negotiations, but there remains a significant gap on key issues. WTI crude oil rose by 5% during the day, trading at $65.38 per barrel. According to CCTV News, U.S. sources reported on the 18th that there are currently no signs indicating a breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Meanwhile, increasing evidence suggests that U.S. military action against Iran is "imminent." Insiders revealed that if the U.S. launches military action against Iran, it is likely to be a large-scale operation lasting several weeks. The U.S. and Israel are likely to act jointly, with the scale being much larger than the "12-day war" in June last year, posing a greater "existential threat" to Iran and having far-reaching impacts on the entire region. Analysts noted that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran took place in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 17th. Although both sides stated that the talks "made progress," significant differences remain. Currently, the likelihood of reaching an agreement seems low. Additionally, President Trump has been ramping up military and rhetorical pressure, making it difficult for him to back down before Iran makes significant concessions. Trump's advisors also believe that a large military deployment in the Middle East is not merely "bluffing." Currently, the U.S. has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group in the Middle East, with a second carrier strike group being deployed. Reports indicate that the U.S. military has also deployed more than a dozen other types of warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems in the region, utilizing over 150 military transport aircraft to transport weapons and ammunition to the Middle East. White House: U.S.-Iran negotiations have made progress, but there remains a significant gap on key issues According to CCTV News, on February 18 local time, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt stated regarding the Iran issue that U.S.-Iran negotiations have "made some progress," but the two sides are still "far apart" on key issues. Iran is expected to submit a more specific proposal in the coming weeks, and President Trump will continue to assess the progress of the negotiations. The White House declined to make a clear statement on whether to set a deadline for negotiations or consider military options. Levitt stated that President Trump has always maintained close communication with the national security team, prioritizing U.S. national interests and the safety of military personnel in any military decision-making matters. Officials: The "timeline is shortening" for a U.S. military strike on Iran According to Israeli sources on the 17th, Israel believes that U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered a "critical phase," and due to the "obvious differences" between the U.S. and Iran, Israel is preparing for a "breakdown in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran." According to CCTV News, on the 18th local time, a senior Israeli official stated that the "timeline is shortening" for a U.S. military strike on Iran. Due to the lack of substantial progress in the new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations, it is assessed that President Trump is very likely to "approve" an attack plan in the near future. The senior Israeli official confirmed that if the U.S. launches an attack, Israel will join the military action against Iran. Although the actions may not be completely synchronized, the level of military coordination between the two countries is currently very high. The Israel Defense Forces and security agencies have fully raised their alert levels. The Israeli rear command and other emergency agencies have been clearly instructed to "prepare for war." Israel assesses that once the U.S. and Israel launch a large-scale attack, Iran is highly likely to retaliate with long-range missiles against Israeli territory. It is reported that various levels in Israel are conducting intensive consultations. The Israeli security cabinet meeting originally scheduled for the 19th has been urgently postponed to this Sunday (22nd), which is seen as a tactical adjustment to respond to the sudden situation. According to CCTV News, two Israeli sources stated that due to signs indicating a possible joint attack on Iran in the coming days, Israel has raised the national alert level and is accelerating relevant military preparations. A military source revealed that despite the announcement of progress in the second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations, Israel has remained skeptical about the negotiations for weeks and has continued to accelerate its combat plans and defensive deployments According to sources, once U.S. President Trump authorizes it, the scale of the possible military action will exceed the "12-day war" that occurred in June 2025, during which the U.S. and Israel will conduct coordinated strikes. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has held multiple special security meetings this week to assess the IDF's readiness and the U.S.-Israel coordination capabilities. On the 18th, Israeli sources reported that due to Iran's refusal to accept U.S. demands during negotiations, Trump is inclined to launch a large-scale military strike against Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Discusses Latest Developments in U.S.-Iran Negotiations with IAEA Director General Earlier that day, according to CCTV News, IAEA Director General Grossi and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi spoke by phone to discuss the latest developments in the new round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran held on the 17th in Geneva, Switzerland: Araqchi emphasized that Iran's focus is on drafting a preliminary framework to advance future dialogue. Grossi gave a positive assessment of the negotiation outcomes and noted that the IAEA is willing to provide support in the process of forming the negotiation framework. The two sides also exchanged views on the mechanisms and requirements for drafting the negotiation framework. The second round of indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran took place on the 17th in Geneva, Switzerland, at the Omani diplomatic mission. Russia and Iran Conduct Naval Exercises in the Gulf of Oman According to CCTV News, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated on the 18th that the Russian frigate "Strong" conducted exercises with the Iranian Navy in the Gulf of Oman, aimed at ensuring the safety of civilian shipping. Russian naval personnel replenished fuel, fresh water, and food supplies at Iran's Abbas Port. On the 17th, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Baltic Fleet's frigate "Strong" had been informally visiting Iran's Abbas Port since February 14 and, after the informal visit, conducted the "Pasex" naval exercise with Iranian naval vessels in the Gulf of Oman It is reported that after the vessels departed, the naval personnel of Russia and Iran also practiced coordinated maneuvering elements and conducted training on communication and civil shipping safety assurance. The command of troop movements was alternately held by both Russia and Iran. The main task of the "Pasex" exercise is to strengthen naval cooperation between Russia and Iran