--- title: "$175 billion \"tariff refund\"! For U.S. stocks, it is \"fiscal stimulus\"; for U.S. Treasuries, it is \"increased debt\"; for gold and silver, it is \"uncertainty returning.\"" description: "A potential refund of $175 billion is a short-term benefit for U.S. stocks, with retail consumer stocks benefiting. However, this ruling leads to a loss of tariff revenue, potentially adding over $2 t" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276502057.md" published_at: "2026-02-21T03:31:27.000Z" --- # $175 billion "tariff refund"! For U.S. stocks, it is "fiscal stimulus"; for U.S. Treasuries, it is "increased debt"; for gold and silver, it is "uncertainty returning." > A potential refund of $175 billion is a short-term benefit for U.S. stocks, with retail consumer stocks benefiting. However, this ruling leads to a loss of tariff revenue, potentially adding over $2 trillion in burden to U.S. debt over the next decade. Trump has stated that he will impose tariffs through other means, increasing policy uncertainty. Gold surged 2% on Friday, breaking through $5,100, while silver rose 8%, indicating a rise in risk aversion. Analysts believe that policy chaos, fiscal pressure, and asset volatility will continue to impact the market After the Supreme Court abolished Trump's tariff authority, U.S. stocks briefly rose on Friday, but investors should prepare for a new round of economic uncertainty. On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, leading to expectations that corporate profit margin pressures would ease in the future. This risk appetite sentiment drove a midday rally in U.S. stocks, with all three major indices closing higher after significant fluctuations throughout the day. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.7%, accumulating a weekly gain of 1.07%, marking its best weekly performance since January 9. (U.S. stock benchmark index performance this week) On the other hand, the ruling intensified concerns about the U.S. government's fiscal situation, especially as bond investors have been questioning the continuously rising U.S. debt. On that day, U.S. Treasury prices saw yields hit daily highs, with the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.10%, while the dollar weakened. (10-year U.S. Treasury yield) Wall Street Journal mentioned that after the Supreme Court ruling, Trump utilized substitute tools to impose a 10% global tariff, stating that tariffs would be "much higher" than before. The combination of policy chaos and a weakening dollar led to gold rising over 2% on Friday, returning to $5,100. Spot silver surged by 8%. (Gold, silver, copper, and platinum rose this week) Analysts believe that in the coming period, the chaotic tariff policies and subsequent tax refund issues will trigger multiple market reactions, with debt pressures, policy uncertainties, and asset price fluctuations continuing to affect investors in the coming months. ## U.S. Stocks Face Short-Term Fiscal Stimulus **For U.S. stocks, the potential $175 billion tax refund is a short-term "fiscal stimulus." This money will directly flow into corporate profits, especially for retail and consumer companies with high import volumes.** On Friday, the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF rose by 0.7%. Jefferies analysts pointed out that companies with high import dependence should benefit in the short term, such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Victoria's Secret, Gap, and Birkenstock Holding, all of which maintained their early gains. **Emarketer's chief analyst Zak Stambor expects that this ruling will provide a moderate boost to retail sales starting this year, but this benefit will gradually fade before 2028.** He stated: > Although this decision provides some short-term relief, it does not eliminate the broader trade policy uncertainty faced by retailers and brands. Previously, while awaiting the judge's ruling, over 1,500 companies, including Costco, had filed tariff lawsuits with the trade court to seek tariff refunds. Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joe Feldman stated that it takes time for businesses to recover the funds they have paid, and that most prices of goods, once increased, typically do not decrease, except for everyday items like milk and eggs. Henrietta Treyz, head of economic policy research at Veda Partners, pointed out that if a new round of tariffs comes, it will again increase compliance costs for importers, cause chaos and confusion at the borders, and disrupt the unified tariff schedule. ## How to Fill the $2 Trillion Gap in U.S. Debt The impact of the Supreme Court ruling on the U.S. Treasury market is more profound. Trump and Congress originally expected tariff revenues to help pay for last year's massive tax cut plan. **According to estimates from the U.S. Federal Budget Committee, if this revenue cannot be replaced, the ruling could add more than $2 trillion to the existing $38.7 trillion national debt over the next decade.** Analysts believe that if Trump cannot obtain sufficient revenue through other tariff authorizations, or if new tariffs trigger greater economic turmoil, the U.S. Treasury market may face greater selling pressure. Wall Street Journal mentioned that on Friday, Bessent stated in a speech at the Dallas Economic Club, "No one should expect tariff revenues to decrease." He emphasized that the Trump administration would invoke alternative legal powers granted by Congress, including Section 122 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, to replace the tariffs imposed under the IEEPA that were overturned by the Supreme Court. According to estimates from the U.S. Treasury, the aforementioned Section 122 combined with potentially strengthened Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs will keep tariff revenues "essentially unchanged" by 2026. He reiterated this judgment during the Q&A session after his speech, showing the government's confidence in building a new tariff system. ## New Opportunities for Safe-Haven Assets like Gold **For safe-haven assets like gold, the Supreme Court ruling and its subsequent developments may reignite safe-haven demand.** **Trump stated on Friday, "Foreigners who have been taking advantage of us for years are cheering. They are so happy, dancing in the streets, but they won't be happy for long." This statement reinforced market expectations for ongoing trade conflicts.** However, tariff policies continue to face political resistance. Polls show that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe tariffs make everyday goods more expensive. Affordability has been a key weakness for Trump and the Republicans ahead of the midterm elections in November. Analysts believe that an unfavorable court ruling will not change Trump's "fondness" for tariffs. Beacon Policy Advisors analyst Owen Tedford warned that Democrats will seize the opportunity to try to frame new tariffs as "Liberation Day 2.0"—a reference to the tariff announcement in April 2025 that led to a global market crash **This dual uncertainty in politics and economics is precisely the soil for the prosperity of safe-haven assets like gold.** Ben McMillan of IDX Advisors points out: > The market recognizes that this will be a prolonged chaotic legal battle. The Supreme Court ruling did not clarify the details of the tariff refunds, pushing everything to lower courts, which means there will be a large number of individual lawsuits. **McMillan further adds that from a fiscal perspective, potential easing measures will maintain a low interest rate environment, which is "favorable for gold," as gold typically performs well in low interest rate environments and does not pay interest.** **Additionally, the latest U.S. actions against Iran are increasing global uncertainty, enhancing the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold.** Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven noted in their report that despite high volatility in December suppressing purchases, central banks remain keen on increasing their gold holdings as a tool to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, and the main driving force behind the rise in gold prices remains strong ### Related Stocks - [600547.CN - SD-GOLD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600547.CN.md) - [NEM.US - Newmont](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [SGDM.US - Sprott GLD Miners Etf](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGDM.US.md) - [GLTR.US - Abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLTR.US.md) - [GDXY.US - YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXY.US.md) - [GBUG.US - Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBUG.US.md) - [AGQ.US - Pro Ultr Silver](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AGQ.US.md) - [GOEX.US - GLOBAL X Gold Explorers](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOEX.US.md) - [IAU.US - iShares Gold Trust](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [82824.HK - EFUND GOLD MI-R](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/82824.HK.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 紐蒙特礦業｜8-K：2025 財年營收 227 億美元超過預期 | | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276377769.md) | | 達利歐家辦重倉黃金！徹底退出橋水後首曝美股持倉，規模升至 5 億美元 | 達利歐家族辦公室自疫情以來首次披露美國股票投資情況。截至去年年底，其在美股市場持倉約 5.03 億美元，較 2021 年初增長約三分之一。其中超過四分之三資金配置在黃金 ETF，其餘分散佈局美債及標普 500 指數等資產。分析稱，這一舉動顯 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276472669.md) | | CEO.CA 的董事會內部消息：Starcore 出售非洲資產，計劃專注於墨西哥的黃金和白銀生產 | CEO.CA 報道，Starcore International Mines Ltd. 已經剝離其非洲資產，以專注於在墨西哥的黃金和白銀生產。該更新包含首席執行官 Robert Eadie 的見解，並突顯了 CEO.CA 作為初級礦業股票投 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276338717.md) | | 紐蒙特礦業在圖表中顯示：黃金銷售和生產連續第四個季度下降，且降幅達到兩位數 | 紐蒙特礦業圖表：黃金銷售和生產連續第四個季度下降，降幅達到兩位數 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276416875.md) | | Avino 金銀礦預計將生產 100 萬至 120 萬盎司的白銀 | 2 月 19 日（路透社）- Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd (ASM.TO)：Avino Silver & Gold Mines 預計在 2026 年生產 100 萬至 120 萬盎司銀、5000 至 7000 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276334835.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.