--- title: "Trump Tariffs Have Been Outlawed, But Crypto Punters Don't See Clear Path To Refunds — Here's Why" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276569057.md" description: "Cryptocurrency bettors are skeptical about the likelihood of refunds for U.S. importers after the Supreme Court struck down Trump-era tariffs. Polymarket odds dropped to 18%, with over $145,000 wagered on the outcome. The court ruled that the Trump administration misused the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but Trump plans to implement new tariffs. Trade lawyers suggest refunds may take 12-18 months, while market analysts believe tariffs will not be fully refunded. Trump announced an immediate increase in the global tariff rate from 10% to 15%." datetime: "2026-02-23T03:42:52.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276569057.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276569057.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276569057.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Trump Tariffs Have Been Outlawed, But Crypto Punters Don't See Clear Path To Refunds — Here's Why Cryptocurrency bettors see only a small chance that the Trump administration will be forced to refund U.S. importers, even though the Supreme Court struck down the emergency-law tariffs. ## Polymarket Crowd Not Convinced Yet **Polymarket** odds tumbled to 18% as of this writing, down from 39% on Friday. Just over $145,000 has been wagered on the outcome. It will resolve to "Yes" if previously collected tariffs are repaid in any form, such as direct payments, credits, or offsets from U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury, by June 30. Polymarket, based on **Polygon** (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in **USDC** (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution. ## Tariff War Heats Up The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 on Friday that the Trump administration improperly used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, reaffirming Congress’s constitutional authority over taxes and trade policy. But even as the refund issue lingers, Trump has tried to circumvent the court’s limits by pointing to other legal tools, including Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows for a temporary global tariff that could run up to 150 days. He also said his administration would spend the next few months setting new tariff schedules he views as legally defensible. Additionally, market commentator **The Kobeissi Letter** cited the Supreme Court’s ruling that stated President **Donald Trump** “must point to clear congressional authorization” to impose tariffs. This means that Congress can still enact legislation to legitimize these taxes. “The base case assumption remains that tariffs will not be entirely refunded,” The Kobeissi Letter added. Trade lawyers believe importers will eventually get refunds, but it won’t happen fast. **TD Securitie**s estimated a 12-18 month timeline before companies see the money. Meanwhile, Trump said he will raise the global tariff rate to 15% from 10% in response to the ruling, adding that the change takes effect immediately. *Photo courtesy: Shutterstock/ Jack\_the\_sparow* ### Related Stocks - [ABTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ABTC.US.md) - [RIOT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RIOT.US.md) - [HSDT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSDT.US.md) - [COIN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/COIN.US.md) - [GLXY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLXY.US.md) - [MARA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MARA.US.md) - [BITF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITF.US.md) - [ETHE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHE.US.md) - [HUT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HUT.US.md) - [ETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETH.US.md) - [EZBC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EZBC.US.md) - [BTCW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCW.US.md) - [MRAL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRAL.US.md) - [ETHA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHA.US.md) - [EETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EETH.US.md) - [FETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FETH.US.md) - [EZET.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EZET.US.md) - [BTCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCO.US.md) - [ETHV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHV.US.md) - [BLOK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BLOK.US.md) - [FBTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FBTC.US.md) - [GSOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GSOL.US.md) - [IBIT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBIT.US.md) - [HODL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HODL.US.md) - [BSOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BSOL.US.md) - [BRRR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRRR.US.md) - [BITB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITB.US.md) - [LMBO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LMBO.US.md) - [QETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QETH.US.md) - [BITO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITO.US.md) - [CETH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CETH.US.md) - [WGMI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WGMI.US.md) - [BTF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTF.US.md) - [ETHW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ETHW.US.md) - [ARKB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ARKB.US.md) - [KEEL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KEEL.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [The Buffett Indicator Is Flashing Red. These 3 Dividend Stocks Could Be Safe Havens.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304985751.md) - [What's Going On With Trade Desk Stock Tuesday?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304999508.md) - [Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck Says 'Critical Minerals' Remain 'a Challenge for a Number of Industries' While Trump Pushes Greenland Exploration](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304998311.md) - [Nvidia couldn't derail the stock market's rally. Hot inflation might.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/305011705.md) - [‘The Worst May Not Be Over,’ Says Investor About Rocket Lab Stock](https://longbridge.com/en/news/304905914.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**