--- title: "Guotai Haitong: The resonance of silver's commodity attributes and financial attributes is expected to drive the upward movement of silver prices due to a persistent supply-demand gap" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276595502.md" description: "Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the commodity properties and financial properties of silver resonate, and the ongoing supply-demand gap is expected to drive silver prices upward. As expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve heat up, the US dollar weakens, and global liquidity improves, the industrial demand and financial attributes of silver are enhanced, especially with increased demand in fields such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles. In the short term, silver price volatility is expected to intensify, and it is anticipated that the London spot silver price will exceed $118 per ounce by 2026" datetime: "2026-02-23T11:57:59.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276595502.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276595502.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276595502.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276595502.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276595502.md) # Guotai Haitong: The resonance of silver's commodity attributes and financial attributes is expected to drive the upward movement of silver prices due to a persistent supply-demand gap According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the two major attributes of silver are forming a strong resonance: in terms of commodity attributes, the industrial demand for silver has risen to nearly 60%, with emerging fields becoming the core of growth; in terms of financial attributes, in a global environment of loose liquidity, silver is linked with gold, becoming a preferred choice for capital risk aversion. From a long-term perspective, the increasing use of silver in fields such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence may lead to a persistent supply-demand gap, providing momentum for the rise in silver prices. Against the backdrop of rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the dollar and improvement in global liquidity, silver possesses strong financial attributes and a long-term supply gap. The bank expects that the sustained supply-demand gap will drive the upward movement of silver price centers. The rise in silver prices will directly translate to profits for silver mining companies, with resource-based enterprises owning high-grade silver mines benefiting more from the increase in silver prices. ## Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: **Short-term inventory disturbances lead to significant price increases and increased volatility in silver.** Over the past five years, global visible silver inventories have shown a downward trend, with COMEX inventories continuously declining in the short term and LMBA inventories decreasing by about 10,000 tons compared to the peak in 2021. At the same time, silver inventories in the Chinese market have also fallen to low levels. In the short term, the leasing rates in the London silver market remain high, posing a certain "warehouse squeeze" risk. Entering 2026, the spot silver price in London broke through USD 118 per ounce, setting a historical high, followed by a decline, leading to severe short-term fluctuations in silver prices. **Silver has both financial and commodity attributes, with its price direction mainly determined by financial attributes, while commodity attributes provide price elasticity, resulting in a "wide fluctuation and mean reversion" of the gold-silver ratio.** Historical data shows that since 2000, the central value of the gold-silver ratio has been around 68. The core reason for the significant decline in the gold-silver ratio is mainly due to loose monetary policy, explosive industrial demand, and the resonance of multiple factors in capital rotation. Reviewing several significant declines in the gold-silver ratio since 2000, the bank found that during periods of continuous decline in the gold-silver ratio, gold and silver often rise together, with silver's increase typically being 3-4 times that of gold. In a macro environment of economic recovery or abundant liquidity, the industrial attributes of silver become prominent, providing greater elasticity compared to gold. **Independent silver mining capacity accounts for less than 30%, with rising mining costs and weak supply growth.** According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey, global silver reserves are expected to reach 640,000 tons by 2024, with overall growth being slow. From the supply side of mined silver, Mexico, China, and Peru together account for 50% of global production in 2024. Global silver production mainly comes from associated minerals, with over 70% derived from copper, lead, and zinc mining by-products. The proportion of independent silver mining capacity is low, and silver production is growing slowly due to declining ore grades, sluggish capital expenditures, and stricter environmental policies, while recycled silver accounts for less than 20%, indicating weak growth in the silver supply side in the future. **Silver is an indispensable AI metal, with industrial attributes driving demand growth.** According to the World Silver Association, a supply-demand gap for silver has persisted globally since 2021. Emerging industrial demands represented by photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence continue to grow, with silver being an essential metal in the AI field. Silver's high electrical conductivity, high thermal conductivity, and low contact resistance determine its strategic position in the AI era In addition, under the strong backdrop of precious metals, the investment demand for silver is positively correlated with price increases, and investment demand is also a source of incremental demand for silver. **Risk Warning**: Fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy, macroeconomic fluctuations, changes on the supply side, and further development of de-silvering technology ### Related Stocks - [Baiyin Nonferrous (601212.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601212.CN.md) - [Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Kuangye Theme ETF (561330.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/561330.CN.md) - [China Southern CSI SWS Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (512400.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512400.CN.md) - [ChinaAMC CSI Subdivision Non-ferrous Metal Sub-Industry ETF (516650.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/516650.CN.md) - [ChinaAMC Gold ETF (518850.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Better investment to buy now with $1,500 and hold for 5 years: XRP vs. silver](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279163212.md) - [Power Metal buys into Chilean copper developer Next Minerals](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279899640.md) - [Cheapest way to buy silver: USA TODAY's guide for beginners](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279829594.md) - [Vatican launches project encouraging disinvestment from mining sector](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279946054.md) - [Việt Nam considers listing silver bullion on commodity exchange](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279916741.md)