--- title: "UBS targets USD 6,200 gold on Fed cuts and elevated geopolitical risk" description: "UBS forecasts gold prices to reach USD 6,200 per ounce, driven by elevated geopolitical risks, ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts, and tight supply. The bank anticipates continued US-Iran tensions and " type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276646188.md" published_at: "2026-02-23T21:20:15.000Z" --- # UBS targets USD 6,200 gold on Fed cuts and elevated geopolitical risk > UBS forecasts gold prices to reach USD 6,200 per ounce, driven by elevated geopolitical risks, ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts, and tight supply. The bank anticipates continued US-Iran tensions and two expected rate cuts by September, which will pressure real yields and enhance gold's appeal. Global gold demand is projected to exceed 5,000 tonnes in 2025, supported by central bank purchases and rising incomes in Asia. Supply constraints are expected as many mines will deplete by 2028. UBS recommends a mid-single digit allocation to gold in diversified portfolios as a hedge against risks. UBS sees gold climbing to USD 6,200 as geopolitics, Fed cuts and tight supply reinforce the bull case. Summary: - UBS lifts conviction on gold, targets USD 6,200/oz in coming months - Geopolitical risks seen staying elevated amid US–Iran tensions - Fed easing cycle expected to continue, pressuring real yields - Global gold demand tops 5,000 tonnes in 2025; central banks buying - Supply constraints emerging as mine depletion looms by 2028 UBS has reiterated an Attractive stance on gold, forecasting a rise to USD 6,200 per ounce in the coming months, arguing that the fundamental pillars behind the rally remain firmly in place. On geopolitics, the bank expects uncertainty to remain elevated. The US military build-up in the Middle East and a tightening deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran increase the probability of further volatility. While UBS notes that geopolitical shocks often have only temporary effects on broad markets, they tend to trigger sharp volatility spikes, conditions that typically boost demand for portfolio hedges such as gold. Macro conditions are seen as equally supportive. UBS expects the Federal Reserve to continue easing, forecasting two 25bp rate cuts by end-September. A softer US dollar and declining real yields would reinforce gold’s appeal, particularly if inflation continues to ease and the Fed’s policy mix turns more dovish later this year. Even with firmer recent jobs data and some hawkish signals in FOMC minutes, UBS believes the broader disinflation trend remains intact. Demand dynamics further strengthen the constructive view. According to the World Gold Council, total gold demand surpassed 5,000 metric tonnes in 2025 for the first time on record. UBS expects additional gains driven by stronger investment flows and sustained central bank purchases. Rising household incomes across Asia are also seen underpinning structural jewellery demand over the medium term. On the supply side, growth appears constrained. While elevated prices may incentivise exploration, consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates that around 80 mines will exhaust current production plans by 2028—suggesting limited near-term supply elasticity. Taken together, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, a supportive Fed easing cycle, robust demand, and tightening supply, UBS argues the strategic case for gold remains compelling. The bank recommends investors consider an allocation of up to mid-single digits within a diversified portfolio as an effective hedge against market and macroeconomic risks. ### Related Stocks - [UBS.US - UBS Group AG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBS.US.md) - [601899.CN - Zijin Mining](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601899.CN.md) - [GOLD.US - Gold.com](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.US.md) - [AEM.US - Agnico Eagle Mines](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AEM.US.md) - [600489.CN - ZHONGJIN GOLD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600489.CN.md) - [KGC.US - Kinross Gold](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KGC.US.md) - [600547.CN - SD-GOLD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600547.CN.md) - [GLD.US - SPDR Gold Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [82824.HK - EFUND GOLD MI-R](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/82824.HK.md) - [GDXY.US - YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXY.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 香港黄金交易所：金价稍调整后 有望第二三季挑战 6000 美元 | 香港黄金交易所主席张德熙出席港金所马年新春开市仪式时表示，近日美伊局势紧张，推动金价上升，而金价在过往一段时间已把根基打好，由每盎斯 3000 多美元一路升上逾 5000 美元，目前看金价仍处于牛市初中期，若最终发生战争，金价稍为调整后将再 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276553130.md) | | 星展：维持紫金矿业 “买入” 评级 目标价上调至 55 港元 | 星展维持紫金矿业 “买入” 评级，目标价上调至 55 港元。预计至 2027 年盈利复合年增长率达 44%，受益于铜、金价格的乐观情绪。公司在全球铜储量及产量分别位列第五及第四，黄金储量及产量第六，显示出强劲市场地位。预计 2026 年金价 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276581210.md) | | 爱德新能源拟斥资约 3950 万澳元认购澳洲黄金生产商 Horizon Minerals Limited 约 9.95% 股权 2 月 24 日复牌 | 爱德新能源计划以约 3950 万澳元认购 Horizon Minerals Limited 约 9.95% 的股权，认购价为每股 1.08 澳元。该交易将于 2026 年 2 月 24 日恢复买卖。Horizon Minerals Limi | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276617988.md) | | 美银：应对地缘需 “交易石油、持有黄金”，美股摆脱低迷需 “两大外部冲击” | Hartnett 的最新报告揭示了当前美股最尴尬的处境：基本面虽好但拥挤不堪，资金面开始松动且流向海外。面对地缘政治的迷雾与高位震荡的美股，投资者应当短期 “交易石油”，中期 “持有黄金”；而美股若想打破当前 “极度看涨却又滞涨” 的僵局， | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276558568.md) | | 潼关黄金发盈喜 预期 2025 年公司拥有人应占溢利约 8.2 亿-8.4 亿港元 同比增长约 289% 至 298% | 潼关黄金预计 2025 年公司拥有人应占溢利约 8.2 亿-8.4 亿港元，同比增长 289% 至 298%。该数据包含约 5500 万港元的非经营性支出，剔除后，预计经调整溢利为 8.75 亿-8.95 亿港元，同比增长 315% 至 3 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276587268.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.