--- title: "AI \"horror story\" once again bleeds the US stock market: An \"imaginary\" essay from 2028 triggers panic, IBM plummets to a 25-year low" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276663662.md" description: "On Monday, due to concerns about the disruptive power of artificial intelligence (AI), the market experienced panic trading, leading to declines in the stock prices of courier, payment, and software companies, with IBM recording its largest single-day drop in 25 years. The sell-off was triggered by a pessimistic report released by Citrini Research, which set a hypothetical scenario for 2028, predicting that AI would lead to massive white-collar unemployment and economic contraction. The report emphasized that this is a scenario rather than a prediction, specifically mentioning that food delivery and credit card companies would face difficulties" datetime: "2026-02-24T00:52:06.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276663662.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276663662.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276663662.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276663662.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276663662.md) # AI "horror story" once again bleeds the US stock market: An "imaginary" essay from 2028 triggers panic, IBM plummets to a 25-year low According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Monday, the "panic trading" of artificial intelligence (AI) erupted again, with growing concerns about the disruptive power of AI dragging down the stock prices of courier, payment, and software companies, leading to IBM (IBM.US) recording its largest single-day drop in 25 years. The sell-off began with a pessimistic report released over the past weekend by a small institution called Citrini Research. The report outlines the risks that AI may pose to various sectors of the global economy by setting hypothetical scenarios for the future. It is reported that the report sets a hypothetical scenario for June 2028. In this scenario, the disruptive impact of AI leads to massive layoffs of white-collar workers, a decline in consumer spending, defaults on software-supported loans, and an economic contraction. The report states, "The sole purpose of this article is to model a scenario that has previously lacked in-depth exploration. We hope that after reading it, you will be prepared for the potential tail risks brought about by AI making the economy increasingly 'strange'." However, the report also clearly emphasizes, "The following content is merely a scenario assumption, not a prediction." It is worth mentioning that Citrini specifically named food delivery services and credit card companies as facing difficulties in the report. The report assumes that the dominance of delivery apps like DoorDash (DASH.US) and Uber Eats will be replaced by so-called "vibe-coded" alternatives, while AI agents will help users save money by eliminating transaction fees charged by payment processing companies like Mastercard (MA.US) and Visa (V.US). The stock prices of several companies named by Citrini in the report fell in response. DoorDash, American Express (AXP.US), KKR (KKR.US), and Blackstone (BX.US) all dropped by at least 6%, while Uber (UBER.US), Mastercard, Visa, Capital One (COP.US), and Apollo Global Management (APO.US) also saw declines of over 4%. ![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260224/1771894236846097.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) As the market has been repeatedly shaken in recent weeks due to concerns over AI disruption and geopolitical turmoil, the grim picture painted by Citrini adds more anxiety to the stock market. Thomas George, a portfolio manager at Grizzle Investment Management, stated, "Even if the final situation is not as severe as the worst-case scenario, the concerns about disruption raised in the report are real. After reading it, one certainly won't feel good, and I believe anyone holding these stocks will feel less confident." Subsequently, AI startup Anthropic stated in a blog post on Monday that its Claude Code tool can help modernize COBOL, an outdated programming language primarily running on IBM computers A significant portion of IBM's revenue is still related to its mainframe business, where large servers owned by clients run some COBOL-based applications. Anthropic stated that Claude Code can automate the most complex exploration and analysis tasks in the COBOL modernization process, noting that "AI excels at simplifying tasks that have historically made COBOL modernization costs prohibitively high." As a result, IBM's stock fell 13.15% on Monday, marking its largest single-day drop since 2000. This indicates that the company has become the latest to face heavy pressure due to concerns that AI will dampen the growth prospects of traditional businesses. The final warning comes from Nassim Taleb. Known as the "father of the black swan," Taleb stated that as the AI-driven rally enters a more fragile phase, investors should prepare for increased volatility and even bankruptcies in the software industry. Taleb believes that the market has underestimated structural risks while overestimating the durability of today's AI-leading companies. He warned that while AI will generate massive profits, history shows that early pioneers are often replaced. He added that with technological instability, intensified competition, and geopolitical shifts reshaping entire industries, the likelihood of bankruptcies among certain software companies is high. In recent weeks, investors have been anxious about the potential impact of new AI tools, entering a "shoot first, ask questions later" mode. Beyond the software industry, which has been hit hardest, insurance brokers, private credit firms, cybersecurity companies, and even real estate service stocks have all been caught up in the so-called "AI panic trading." However, some analysts, strategists, and investors have warned that many market reactions are exaggerated and that the risks associated with AI may currently be overestimated. Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jonestrading, stated, "This is a very astonishing market reaction. I have seen this market show incredible resilience in the face of actual negative news. Yet now, a fictional piece has sent the market into a tailspin." ### Related Stocks - [Franklin Exponential Data ETF (XDAT.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XDAT.US.md) - [International Business Machines Corporation (IBM.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBM.US.md) - [State StreetSPDRS&PSftwr&SvcsETF (XSW.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XSW.US.md) - [Global X Cloud Computing ETF (CLOU.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CLOU.US.md) - [iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sect ETF (IGV.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IGV.US.md) - [ProShares Big Data Refiners ETF (DAT.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DAT.US.md) - [Global X Data Center & Dgtl Infrs ETF (DTCR.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DTCR.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [International Business Machines Corporation $IBM Shares Bought by MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust FSB](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280020723.md) - [IBM's New AI System Helps Companies Find Insights Faster and Safer](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279996527.md) - [Quantum-computing technology may not be so futuristic after all, according to IBM](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278866325.md) - [Box CEO says companies will need to figure out how to budget for workers running up AI token bills](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279975092.md) - [IBM Confluent Deal Aims To Anchor Real Time AI Data Strategy](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279998234.md)