--- title: "Overvalued net worth and redemption restrictions! Is the current \"PE private credit crisis\" a new round of \"subprime\"?" description: "BDC discount hits a new high post-pandemic, Blue Owl restricts redemptions, and market panic spreads. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the large drop in the stock prices of major listed private equity f" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276674258.md" published_at: "2026-02-24T02:41:39.000Z" --- # Overvalued net worth and redemption restrictions! Is the current "PE private credit crisis" a new round of "subprime"? > BDC discount hits a new high post-pandemic, Blue Owl restricts redemptions, and market panic spreads. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the large drop in the stock prices of major listed private equity firms is due to opacity and exposure to the software industry, but the conditions for systemic risk are not yet in place. Investors need to closely monitor four key indicators, including credit spreads and regulatory changes, and be wary of discounts evolving from sentiment into a fatal hard constraint on the financing chain A panic about the private credit market is spreading. Orlando Gemes, Chief Investment Officer of Fourier Asset Management, issued a stern warning: “**The danger signals we see today in the private credit space are strikingly similar to those in 2007.**” He specifically pointed out the deterioration of lender protection clauses and the complex liquidity terms that "mask the mismatch between the assets investors believe they hold and the assets they can actually exit." According to the Wind Trading Desk, on February 23, Deutsche Bank released a report titled "Private credit: Smoke, yes, but how much fire?" The report noted that the price-to-net asset value ratio of the S&P BDC Index component funds **has fallen to the largest discount since the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic**, while events such as Blue Owl's redemption restrictions and Breitling's valuation halving have further fueled the fire. Despite the recent decline in related stock prices, Deutsche Bank believes that **the conditions for a large-scale market contagion are currently not in place.** Investors need to closely monitor **credit spreads, corporate profits, government bond pressures, and regulatory changes** as the four key trigger indicators, while recognizing that **over $3 trillion in "dry powder" (uninvested capital) reserves may serve as a crucial buffer.** **** ## **BDC Discounts Hit Record: A Thermometer of Market Panic** Business Development Companies (BDCs) are becoming a barometer for the private credit crisis. Deutsche Bank data shows that these publicly listed institutions, which are highly allocated to private credit and software industries, **have seen their stock prices relative to net asset value reach the highest discount since the COVID-19 pandemic.** **** Panic further intensified last week. Blue Owl announced **redemption restrictions on one of its funds and asset sales**, and although this move was intended to bolster confidence, some investors took the opportunity to sell off private capital-related assets. Subsequently, the Financial Times reported that Breitling's **private equity owners have halved the value of their investments**, further stoking market panic. ## **Non-Bank Financial Institutions: Underestimated Systemic Risk** What is truly concerning is the **growing share of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) in the financial system.** Recent research from the New York Fed highlights the risks posed by the growth of NBFIs to banks. Key data shows that NBFIs currently account for more than 50% of global financial assets, and in the United States, this proportion is as high as 60% The risk transmission mechanism deserves attention: Although banks have reduced their direct exposure to the real economy since the financial crisis, they are still indirectly exposed through their obligations to Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs). Specifically, banks provide senior loans to NBFIs, which in turn issue junior credit loans to subsequent borrowers. This **multi-layered nested structure may trigger a chain reaction once problems arise.** Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman pointed out that before the financial crisis, banks issued 60% of mortgage loans, but this proportion has nearly halved since then, with borrowers turning to non-bank lending institutions. ## **$3 trillion in "dry powder": Lifeline or a drop in the bucket?** Deutsche Bank believes that **there is currently over $3 trillion in "dry powder" in the private capital market, which is sufficient to address recent financial issues**, as the vast majority of large private capital loans are issued by large institutions. These institutions are highly diversified and influential, and their investors are unlikely to refuse capital calls. However, the situation in the mid-market is entirely different. Many **mid-market institutions are heavily reliant on recent declines in software investments and lack sufficient diversification, making them the most vulnerable link currently.** ## **Four key indicators: The tipping point for crisis ignition** Deutsche Bank clearly states that for a negative scenario to materialize and trigger contagion to banks, a deterioration in the economic and market backdrop is required. Specifically, a certain combination of the following situations needs to occur: 1. **Credit spreads and/or interest rates rise sharply** 2. **Corporate profits experience substantial contraction** 3. **The government bond market faces concerning pressures, especially in debt auctions** 4. **Changes in bank regulations or capital requirements regarding exposure to the private market** The key conclusion is: **Currently, none of these four indicators have reached levels that pose a danger to the private capital market** in terms of their potential to trigger broader market contagion and disruption. ## **Current assessment: There is smoke, but the fire is not large** Deutsche Bank positions the current situation as "heavy smoke, but the fire is unclear," emphasizing **not to equate liquidity fluctuations directly with a credit collapse.** Additionally, investors often misinterpret specific issues with individual investments as broader market trends, which is a typical misjudgment of "correlation rather than causation." Although the AI sell-off is based on concerns about the long-term disruption of software companies, most software companies may still retain their customers and profits, thus having cash flow available to service creditors in the short term. More importantly, given the strong performance of the stock and credit markets, healthy corporate profits, a resilient U.S. labor market, and an overall robust economy, the conditions for a significant decline in confidence have not yet been met. For investors, it is crucial to closely monitor the four observation indicators listed by Deutsche Bank in the short term, as well as whether the "net asset value discount" of vehicles like BDCs continues to spread. **When the discount shifts from sentiment to a hard constraint in the financing chain, it marks the starting point for risk transmission from localized issues.** ### Related Stocks - [PEX.US - Pro Gbl Listed Pvt](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PEX.US.md) - [XLF.US - Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLF.US.md) - [OWL.US - Blue Owl Capital](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OWL.US.md) - [DB.US - Deutsche Bank AG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DB.US.md) - [IAI.US - ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAI.US.md) - [VFH.US - VG Financial](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VFH.US.md) - [FNCL.US - Fidelity MSCI Financials Index](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FNCL.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 私募市場面臨 08 年後最大信心危機 Blue Owl 禁提款爆恐慌 AI 顛覆軟件業成導火線 | 全球私募信貸市場面臨自 2008 年金融危機以來最嚴重的信心危機，因 Blue Owl Capital 因旗下基金贖回困境，永久限制投資者提款並啟動 14 億美元資產清償。該公司取消季度贖回政策，轉型為「資本返還」模式，引發市場對其資產估值 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276572219.md) | | QuickFund AI 擴大了獨立交易員獲取結構化資本的渠道 | QuickFund AI，一家專有交易資本平台，宣佈擴展其資金框架，旨在為獨立交易者提供結構化的資本獲取途徑。針對市場波動性增加，該平台強調通過基於規則的評估過程進行有序的資本配置，該過程評估風險管理和遵循交易參數。QuickFund AI | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276685459.md) | | 摩根大通發佈 2026 財年展望 | 摩根大通：摩根大通 2026 財年整體淨利息收入約為 1045 億美元；摩根大通：對實現我們的長期目標保持信心 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276649701.md) | | 2007 年的相似之處？Blue Owl Capital 凍結了零售私人信貸基金的提款 | Blue Owl Capital 已經永久停止了其零售私人信貸基金的提款，這引發了人們對 2008 年金融危機早期跡象的擔憂。經濟學家穆罕默德·埃爾 - 埃裏安質疑這是否是一個警告信號，他指出，儘管系統性風險並不像 2008 年那樣嚴重，但 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276335180.md) | | Blue Owl 的焦慮擾動了 1.8 萬億美元的私人信貸市場 | Blue Owl Capital 面臨重大挑戰，其股價因對 1.8 萬億美元私人信貸市場的擔憂而下跌 10%。該公司已限制從其 16 億美元的基金 OBDC II 中的提款，並正在出售資產以向投資者返還資本。對人工智能過度支出和貸款標準的擔 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276557485.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.