--- title: "Cathay Securities and Haitong Securities: The supply-demand gap will drive the upward movement of silver price center, resource-based enterprises will benefit more" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276708157.md" description: "CITIC Securities released a research report indicating that silver prices are expected to rise due to supply and demand gaps, especially in the context of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improvements in global liquidity. The investment demand for silver is positively correlated with price increases, and resource companies like SDR will benefit more from rising prices. In the short term, silver inventories are declining, and market leasing rates are high, posing a risk of \"warehouse squeezing.\" It is expected that by 2026, the London spot silver price will exceed $118 per ounce" datetime: "2026-02-24T09:07:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276708157.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276708157.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276708157.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276708157.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276708157.md) # Cathay Securities and Haitong Securities: The supply-demand gap will drive the upward movement of silver price center, resource-based enterprises will benefit more According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that against the backdrop of rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar and improvement in global liquidity, silver possesses strong financial attributes and has a long-term supply gap. The bank expects that the persistent supply-demand gap will drive the upward movement of silver prices. The rise in silver prices will directly translate to profits for silver mining companies, with resource-based enterprises owning high-grade silver mines benefiting more from the increase in silver prices. Related stocks: SDR (000603.SZ). ## Guotai Junan's main viewpoints are as follows: **Short-term inventory disturbances intensify, silver prices significantly rise and then fluctuate more sharply** In the past five years, global visible silver inventories have shown a downward trend, with COMEX inventories continuously declining in the short term and LMBA inventories decreasing by about 10,000 tons compared to the peak in 2021. At the same time, silver inventories in the Chinese market have also fallen to low levels. In the short term, the leasing rates in the London silver market remain high, posing a certain "warehouse squeeze" risk. By 2026, the spot silver price in London is expected to break through USD 118 per ounce, setting a historical high, before subsequently retreating, leading to sharp fluctuations in silver prices in the short term. **Silver has both financial and commodity attributes, with its price direction mainly determined by financial attributes, while commodity attributes provide price elasticity; the gold-silver ratio exhibits "wide fluctuations and mean reversion"** Historical data shows that since 2000, the central value of the gold-silver ratio has been around 68. The core reason for the significant decline in the gold-silver ratio is mainly due to loose monetary policy, explosive industrial demand, and the resonance of multiple factors in capital rotation. Reviewing several instances of significant declines in the gold-silver ratio since 2000, it has been found that during periods of continuous decline in the gold-silver ratio, gold and silver often rise together, with silver's increase typically being 3-4 times that of gold. In a macro environment of economic recovery or ample liquidity, silver's industrial attributes become prominent, providing greater elasticity compared to gold. **Independent silver mining capacity accounts for less than 30%, mining costs are rising, and supply growth is weak** According to data from the United States Geological Survey, global silver reserves are expected to reach 640,000 tons by 2024, with overall growth being slow. From the supply side of mined silver, Mexico, China, and Peru together account for 50% of global production in 2024. Global silver production is mainly derived from associated minerals, with over 70% coming from by-products of copper, lead, and zinc smelting. The proportion of independent silver mining capacity is low, and the production of mined silver is growing slowly due to declining ore grades, sluggish capital expenditures, and stricter environmental policies, while recycled silver accounts for less than 20%, indicating weak growth in silver supply in the future. **Silver is an indispensable AI metal, with industrial attributes driving demand growth** According to the World Silver Association, a supply-demand gap for silver has persisted globally since 2021. Emerging industrial demands represented by photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence continue to grow, with silver being an indispensable metal in the AI field. Silver's high electrical conductivity, high thermal conductivity, and low contact resistance determine its strategic position in the AI era. Additionally, in the context of strong precious metals, silver investment demand is positively correlated with price increases, making investment demand a source of incremental growth for silver demand. **Risk Warning** The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy fluctuates, macroeconomic conditions vary, changes occur on the supply side, and the development of de-dollarization technology continues to advance ### Related Stocks - [abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SIVR.US.md) - [SilverCrest Metals Inc. 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