--- title: "HSBC \"Contrarian Statement\": Software will devour AI, now is a good time to bottom fish" description: "HSBC believes that enterprise-level software will not be disrupted but will instead \"devour and tame\" AI. The non-deterministic flaws of large models cannot meet the enterprise's requirements for zero" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/276806089.md" published_at: "2026-02-25T00:34:59.000Z" --- # HSBC "Contrarian Statement": Software will devour AI, now is a good time to bottom fish > HSBC believes that enterprise-level software will not be disrupted but will instead "devour and tame" AI. The non-deterministic flaws of large models cannot meet the enterprise's requirements for zero errors and high reliability, while traditional software giants like Microsoft and Oracle are embedding AI into their platforms, leveraging their deep data and architectural barriers. Compared to the previously overheated hardware semiconductor sector, the current valuation of the software sector is at a historical low, and 2026 will be the inaugural year for monetizing AI in the software industry Can AI coding disrupt SaaS? HSBC's answer is quite the opposite. According to the Wind Trading Desk, on February 24, HSBC's Head of U.S. Technology Research, Stephen Bersey, and his team released a report titled "Software Will Eat AI Stocks," throwing out a "counter-market statement." In the current climate of "AI disruption and panic trading," HSBC clearly pointed out that software will not face extinction; rather, it is the key way for the world's largest enterprises to "control and utilize AI." HSBC summarized its judgment with a contrasting statement: "**Hardware/semiconductors are strong enough, but software will be better.**" The logic is that what enterprises truly need is not a "talking model," but a system capability that is **controllable, auditable, and repeatable**, which is precisely the strength of software platforms. > - **Enterprise software will not be threatened by AI; on the contrary, AI will be embedded into software platforms.** > - **Enterprise software vendors have already completed heavy lifting work such as design, intuitive programming, and embedded intelligent agent testing.** > - **The valuation level of the software sector is at a historical low, even though the industry is poised for large-scale expansion.** ## The "Inherent Defects" of Large Models and Enterprise Barriers The biggest concern in the market currently is that AI writing code (Vibe-coding) will significantly lower the software development threshold, allowing startups to easily disrupt existing SaaS giants. HSBC firmly refuted this. The report pointed out that **from a technical perspective, foundational AI models have "inherent defects." AI is essentially non-deterministic and may provide different answers or even make mistakes when faced with the same problem.** This is fatal in enterprise applications. "The world has become accustomed to software platforms that are repeatable, auditable, and error-free in daily operations, while foundational models lack these attributes." HSBC emphasized that it is unrealistic to expect "overall migration and replacement" using AI for high-fidelity enterprise-level platforms. Moreover, **enterprise software has reached extremely high throughput and reliability after decades of evolution.** Behind this lies a vast amount of critical and proprietary intellectual property (IP) that cannot be trained on AI in the public internet. HSBC bluntly stated: "If you don't know what code you are writing, Vibe-coding is almost useless." It's like a pharmaceutical company wouldn't design chips or smelt steel for its own use. **Enterprises abandoned writing their core IT systems decades ago** because it contradicted basic economic principles. These companies quickly realized that developing and maintaining these systems internally and staffing them is very expensive; spending huge sums to write a massive platform that only spreads costs across one use case (i.e., for their own use) is extremely uneconomical. In contrast, purchasing products from software vendors with expertise in development, maintenance, and staffing is much more economical, as these costs can be spread across thousands of customers ## Who Will Write the Best AI Software? It's the Traditional Software Giants Since startups and large model providers lack the experience to build "enterprise-level" complex architectures, who is best suited to use AI to generate better software? HSBC provides a very definitive answer: "Of course, it's the software vendors themselves." **The logic is very clear: Established software giants like Salesforce, Oracle, ServiceNow, and Microsoft have deep domain expertise, solid sales channels, and customer trust. More importantly, they have been embedding refined intelligent agents into their extensive platforms using the same AI programming tools.** The role of AI is to be "dimensionalized" and "tamed." HSBC made a vivid analogy: AI is responsible for creatively analyzing and producing intelligent data, but this data must be processed, stored, checked, and executed by deterministic software technology stacks. "The vast majority of enterprise software will not be threatened by AI; instead, AI will be domesticated within the application technology stack through agents, creating tremendous value in the process." ## 2026: The Year of Software Monetization, Valuations at Historical Lows From an investor's perspective, the technological logic ultimately needs to translate into performance guidance and market space. HSBC provided a clear timeline: Major software giants will have begun the heavy work of designing and beta testing embedded AI agents by 2024, and the technology is now mature and starting to be promoted to large global clients. "We believe that 2026 will be the kick-off for monetization of software," HSBC pointed out, noting that this will be the main mechanism for the world's largest enterprises to consume AI, driving exponential growth in AI inference demand. Regarding the investment rhythm of the market, HSBC made a resounding conclusion: "As good as Hardware/Semi has been, Software will be better." HSBC believes that AI is a technology, but "enterprises rarely buy technology; they buy solutions to business problems," and these solutions can only come from an infinitely flexible software technology stack. In this ecosystem that creates over $100 trillion in global GDP, traditional software giants are the core beneficiaries of unleashing AI's value potential. **Currently, the total addressable market (TAM) of the software industry is on the eve of a large-scale expansion cycle lasting 5-10 years. However, the misalignment in market perception has led to the software sector's valuations currently being at historical lows.** HSBC suggests that now is the right time to establish or expand positions in the software sector before a valuation reassessment. ### Related Stocks - [MSFT.US - Microsoft](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [ORCL.US - Oracle](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCL.US.md) - [MSFU.US - Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFU.US.md) - [ORCX.US - Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ORCX.US.md) - [MSFO.US - YieldMax MSFT Option Income Strategy ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFO.US.md) - [MSFX.US - T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFX.US.md) - [IGV.US - iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IGV.US.md) - [MSFL.US - GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFL.US.md) - [XSW.US - SPDR S&P Software](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XSW.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | DeepSeek 连更 GitHub，华尔街回想起被支配的恐惧：“DeepSeek 第二时刻” 要来了 | DeepSeek 在 GitHub 上进行了一系列更新，引发了市场对其新版本 V4 的期待。更新主要集中在与 DeepSeek API 集成相关的项目，包括 AI 应用、开发工具和企业解决方案。市场对 DeepSeek V4 的发布感到紧张 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276700026.md) | | “OpenClaw 之父”：当 “实验项目” 变成 “全球爆款”，软件开发本质已变——代码已死、意图永生 | OpenAI 访谈 OpenClaw 之父 Steinberger。他靠 AI 一年提交代码 9 万次，验证了 “一人成军” 的爆发力。他指出 AI 已具备自主解决问题的能力，开发本质已变为 “定义意图” 而非写代码。他预言 2026 年技 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276823883.md) | | 白宫发布会一年后仍未实质启动，OpenAI 的 5000 亿美元” 星际之门” 计划陷入僵局 | 据知情人士透露，这个由 OpenAI、Oracle 和软银三方组建的合资企业至今未配备人员，也没有开发任何 OpenAI 的数据中心。项目宣布后的数周内，三方在领导权、职责分工和合作结构等关键问题上陷入分歧，导致” 星际之门” 计划迟迟无法 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276587846.md) | | 从工具到生产力，OpenClaw 引领 Agent 范式变革 | OpenClaw 正在推动 Agent 从 “生产力工具” 升级为 “持续运转的生产力”，实现从被动响应到主动智能的转变。其核心亮点在于高度拟人化的 AI 秘书形态，具备高效交互、持续记忆用户偏好及系统级操作权限。OpenClaw 通过引入 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276664110.md) | | 期权热点｜周一 ORCL 跌 4%，部分看跌期权大涨 91% | 美东时间 02 月 23 日，甲骨文期权总成交 332495 张，看涨期权占比 47%，看跌期权占比 52%。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276681502.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.