--- title: "Tesla Sales In Freefall—Here's What Prediction Markets Say About The Company's Robotaxi Lifeline" description: "Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has experienced its 13th consecutive month of declining sales in Europe, with registrations down 17% year-on-year in January. Meanwhile, BYD Company (OTC:BYDDY) has more than d" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277084111.md" published_at: "2026-02-26T18:28:22.000Z" --- # Tesla Sales In Freefall—Here's What Prediction Markets Say About The Company's Robotaxi Lifeline > Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has experienced its 13th consecutive month of declining sales in Europe, with registrations down 17% year-on-year in January. Meanwhile, BYD Company (OTC:BYDDY) has more than doubled its market share. Globally, Tesla's deliveries have fallen for two years, dropping 8.6% in 2025. Predictions for Tesla's robotaxi launch are low, with Polymarket showing skepticism about milestones. Despite challenges, some analysts maintain bullish projections for Tesla's future, citing potential catalysts like the Optimus robot. **Tesla Inc** (NASDAQ:TSLA) has posted its 13th consecutive month of declining sales in Europe while rival **BYD Company** (OTC:BYDDY) more than doubled its market share. ## Tesla’s European Collapse Tesla’s new car registrations across the EU, UK and EFTA fell 17% year-on-year in January to just 8,075 units. Market share slipped to 0.8%, down from 1% a year earlier. But registrations only capture one month’s snapshot. Actual sales tell a darker story. Across 13 European markets, Tesla’s sales volume has dropped roughly 50% since January 2024. That means the decline is accelerating. UK registrations alone plunged 57%. This isn’t an EV problem. Battery electric car sales across the EU climbed nearly 14% in January, and the segment now accounts for almost 20% of the market. BYD shifted 18,242 cars in the same period, a 165% year-on-year jump, giving it more than double Tesla’s European market share. Morningstar’s **Michael Field** told CNBC that Chinese automakers have a cost advantage that may prove insurmountable. Tesla’s problems don’t end in Europe. Globally, deliveries have now fallen two years running, dropping 8.6% in 2025 to 1.64 million. BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s top EV brand last year. The stock is off roughly 11% year-to-date, trading around $409. ## Polymarket Isn’t Buying The Robotaxi Pivot Much of Tesla’s $1.5 trillion valuation rests on autonomous vehicles eventually eclipsing the car business. **Elon Musk** told investors in January 2025 that robotaxis would be “the largest asset value increase in human history.” Traders on **Polymarket** are skeptical this increase will happen anytime soon. A contract on Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30 sits at 26%. A market on selling a Cybercab for $30,000 or less this year is at 28%, despite **Elon Musk** touting an April production start and a sub-$30K price tag. A contract on Robovan preorders before 2027 trades at 20%. Volume on all three is relatively thin, about $95,000 in total, so the signal is directional, not definitive. But the consistency is notable: bettors are pricing every major robotaxi milestone as unlikely. ## Meanwhile, Waymo Just Hit 10 Cities **Alphabet Inc** (NASDAQ:GOOGL)-owned Waymo expanded to 10 U.S. cities this week, adding Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando. It’s logging over 400,000 driverless rides per week and targeting 1 million by year-end, backed by $16 billion in fresh capital. Tesla’s Austin fleet has roughly 44 active vehicles. A Jefferies note released today found that Tesla offered just 2 of 15 test rides without a safety driver and failed to book a ride over 25% of the time. Musk predicted 500 robotaxis in Austin by the end of 2025. He said half the U.S. would be covered. Neither happened. ## Bulls Aren’t Flinching Wedbush’s **Dan Ives** maintains a $600 base case and $800 bull case, calling 2026 the “most important year” for Tesla. ARK’s **Cathie Wood** has projected $2,600 by 2030 on the robotaxi recurring revenue thesis. Bulls also point to Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, as another long-term catalyst. But Polymarket gives a consumer release by year-end just a 21% chance, and Musk himself has warned that early production will be “agonizingly slow.” *Image: Shutterstock* ### Related Stocks - [TSLL.US - Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [002594.CN - BYD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002594.CN.md) - [BYDDY.US - BYD Company](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BYDDY.US.md) - [TSLA.US - Tesla](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [01211.HK - BYD COMPANY](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01211.HK.md) - [TSLT.US - T-Rex 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [BYDDF.US - BYD Company Limited](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BYDDF.US.md) - [TSLR.US - GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSL.US - GraniteShares 1.25 Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [516380.CN - Hwabao WP CSI Intelligent Electric Vehicle ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/516380.CN.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | Tesla Rival Xpeng Expands Robotics Bet With Guangzhou Factory For Optimus Challenger IRON | Xpeng Inc. is set to build a new humanoid robot factory in Guangzhou, China, aiming for large-scale production of its IR | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276990047.md) | | Tesla set to activate long-awaited Cybertruck feature | Tesla is preparing to activate the long-awaited Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) feature for the Cybertruck, which has th | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276923701.md) | | Official Slate Truck Pricing Is Coming In Late June | Slate Auto is set to reveal pricing for its affordable electric pickup truck, the "Blank Slate," in late June. 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