--- title: "Unexpected warming! The U.S. January core PPI recorded the fastest growth in a year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy" description: "In January, the U.S. PPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, while the core PPI rose by 0.8% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, both significantly exceeding market expectations." type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277220965.md" published_at: "2026-02-27T15:18:29.000Z" --- # Unexpected warming! The U.S. January core PPI recorded the fastest growth in a year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy > In January, the U.S. PPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, while the core PPI rose by 0.8% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, both significantly exceeding market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of the core PPI reached its fastest pace since March 2025. The surge in service costs was the main driver, with profit margins in wholesale and retail trade services jumping by 2.5%. Commodity prices fell due to energy drag, but core commodities rose by 0.7% month-on-month. The PPI exceeding expectations may push up core PCE, further dampening expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for January rose across the board, exceeding expectations and highlighting persistent inflationary pressures. This unexpected uptick was primarily driven by soaring service costs. **Both the month-on-month and year-on-year increases in core PPI, excluding food and energy, significantly surpassed market expectations, marking the fastest growth rate in nearly a year.** On the 27th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing: > U.S. January core PPI year-on-year at 3.6%, expected 3%, previous value 3.3%. > > U.S. January PPI month-on-month at 0.5%, expected 0.3%, previous value 0.5%. > > U.S. January core PPI month-on-month at 0.8%, expected 0.3%, previous value 0.7%. > > U.S. January PPI year-on-year at 2.9%, expected 2.6%, previous value 3%. The strong rise in producer prices has prompted a reassessment of the inflation trajectory in the market. Analysts believe that **the unexpected performance of the PPI may lead to upward pressure on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors.** **Persistently high inflation data may further complicate the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy choices**, causing investors to remain cautious about recent market trends. ## Service Costs Drive PPI Increase The U.S. January Producer Price Index (PPI) rose unexpectedly, **but the core driver came from imported services, with no direct correlation to tariff transmission pressures.** The final demand services component rose 0.8% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase in recent times. Among these, the wholesale and retail trade service profit margin indicator surged 2.5%, and transportation and freight service prices increased by 1.0%. In contrast, the goods component showed a different trend. The final demand goods prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in January, primarily dragged down by energy prices—energy components decreased by 2.7%, and food prices fell by 1.5%. However, core goods prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.7% month-on-month, one of the largest single-month increases since early 2022. ## Core Indicators Reach Nearly One-Year High After excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, **the increase in core PPI is even more pronounced, indicating strong momentum for potential inflation.** The U.S. January core PPI surged 0.8% month-on-month, far exceeding the expected 0.3%, with the previous value at 0.7%. Year-on-year, **the January core PPI climbed to 3.6%, not only surpassing the market expectation of 3.0% but also higher than the previous value of 3.3%.** According to Bloomberg, this is the fastest pace of price increases since March 2025. ## Core PCE Faces Upward Pressure PPI data is often viewed as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, with its various component data directly used to calculate the PCE price index. The comprehensive warming of producer prices in January indicates that inflationary pressures still exist at the supply chain level Market analysis indicates that the bottom line is that **the strong performance of the January PPI may directly lead to the core PCE price index being higher than expected.** As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the potential upward movement of the core PCE will become a key focus for policymakers in their future decision-making ### Related Stocks - [QQQM.US - Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [NDAQ.US - Nasdaq](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NDAQ.US.md) - [QQQ.US - Invesco QQQ Trust](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [.DJI.US - Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [.SPX.US - S&P 500](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [.IXIC.US - NASDAQ Composite Index](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [ONEQ.US - Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [TQQQ.US - Proshares UltraPro QQQ](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [QLD.US - ProShares Ultra QQQ](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QLD.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 美 30 年期按揭利率 2022 年来首破 6%，业内：今春楼市销售或创多年来最佳 | 美国 30 年期固定按揭贷款平均利率首次跌破 6%，为 5.98%。这一变化可能刺激春季房屋销售，业内人士认为销售将是多年来最佳。尽管购房负担能力有所改善，但市场仍需更多房源上市以维持增长。当前，约 70% 的借款人利率低于 5%，借贷成本 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277105242.md) | | 美联储理事米兰：认为我们今年需要降息大约一个百分点 | 美联储理事米兰：认为我们今年需要降息大约一个百分点。风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277055540.md) | | 特朗普暗示违法征收的关税不退了，美财长称今年关税收入将 “基本保持不变” | 美国总统特朗普暗示不会退还被最高法院裁定违法的关税，预计 2026 年关税收入将保持不变。特朗普计划签署行政令，对全球商品加征 10% 进口关税，取代被推翻的关税。财长贝森特表示，政府将利用替代法律权力维持关税收入，强调国家安全和财政收入不 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276494362.md) | | 如何应对新的 15% 全球关税：这对美国消费者的影响是什么 | 将于 2026 年 2 月 24 日实施一项新的 15% 全球关税，此政策由总统唐纳德·特朗普提出。该政策将影响多种进口商品，引发美国消费者和小企业的担忧。对于家庭，特别是西班牙裔家庭来说，了解哪些产品将受到影响以有效管理预算至关重要 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277086558.md) | | 创纪录资金涌入，却换来 15 年最差相对表现！美股光环褪去，美元警报响起？ | 德银称，2025 年美股获得相当于 GDP 约 2% 的创纪录资金流入，但却跑输全球创下 15 年来最差相对表现。随着估值溢价仍高、非美盈利动能回升，海外资金可能重新评估对美股超配；若资金净流入降温甚至反转，美元或面临类似 2000 年代初 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276976336.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.