---
title: "Goldman Sachs: The Iran conflict will lead to an oil risk premium of $18 per barrel"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277373282.md"
description: "Goldman Sachs expects the Iran conflict to lead to a risk premium of $18 per barrel for crude oil, reflecting the impact of six weeks of disrupted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. This premium corresponds to the market pricing for a daily disruption of 2.3 million barrels in global supply. Goldman Sachs noted that although the risks are to the upside, history shows that price spikes triggered by geopolitical shocks are usually short-lived"
datetime: "2026-03-01T22:50:26.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277373282.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277373282.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277373282.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277373282.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277373282.md)


# Goldman Sachs: The Iran conflict will lead to an oil risk premium of $18 per barrel

Goldman Sachs has set the real-time risk premium for crude oil prices at $18 per barrel, which corresponds to the bank's assessment of the impact of a complete disruption of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for six weeks. In its report, it stated that this risk premium is equivalent to the market pricing a daily disruption of 2.3 million barrels of global supply over the course of a year. The premium assessment is based on a 15% increase in the WTI retail price from IG Group Ltd. over the weekend. Goldman Sachs stated, "While our forecasted risks tend to be upward, history shows that price spikes driven by geopolitical shocks and/or temporary supply disruptions may be short-lived."

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