---
title: "Trump did not \"quickly resolve\" the situation! Global markets face the \"Iran impact,\" with the focus on \"duration.\""
description: "The Strait of Hormuz has not yet been \"physically blocked,\" but the sharp decline in shipping is due to traders actively avoiding risks, and a surge in oil prices may be inevitable. Goldman Sachs has "
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277382091.md"
published_at: "2026-03-02T00:55:59.000Z"
---

# Trump did not "quickly resolve" the situation! Global markets face the "Iran impact," with the focus on "duration."

> The Strait of Hormuz has not yet been "physically blocked," but the sharp decline in shipping is due to traders actively avoiding risks, and a surge in oil prices may be inevitable. Goldman Sachs has issued a deep warning that if the conflict evolves into a "protracted war" similar to that of 2022, high fiscal spending combined with energy inflation will force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates amid declining growth. At that time, the U.S. Treasury yield curve will accelerate its flattening, cyclical sectors of the U.S. stock market will be under pressure, and the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen will be the only safe havens for funds

"Trump says no ceasefire until goals are met! Iran states that the timing of the ceasefire will be decided by Iran." The latest statements from both the U.S. and Iran have completely shattered market expectations for a "quick resolution."

According to CCTV News latest report, U.S. President Trump delivered a video speech on March 1st local time, stating that the U.S. and Israel will continue military actions against Iran until all goals are achieved. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that Iran will decide when and how to end this imposed war of aggression by the U.S. and Israel.

Trump's latest statement marks a clear escalation from previous remarks. Recently, Trump claimed that Iran "is a major power," and that its military actions may take about four weeks to complete, "or even shorter." Additionally, regarding the conflict situation, Trump claimed that U.S. forces have sunk 9 Iranian vessels, "essentially destroying Iran's naval headquarters." The U.S. military stated that it destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, denying that the USS Lincoln was hit by Iranian forces. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that the counterattack "has caused 560 U.S. military casualties" and shot down more than twenty U.S. and Israeli drones.

As the duration of the conflict extends, Wall Street's pricing logic has instantly changed. Goldman Sachs warned in its latest research report that the **"duration of the conflict" has replaced "the outbreak itself" as the core variable determining the direction of crude oil, gold, and U.S. stocks.**

## Strait of Hormuz: "Proactively Avoided" Rather Than "Forced Closed"

After the outbreak of the conflict, global attention is focused on the "throat" of the oil market—the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway located in southern Iran is the chokepoint for approximately 20% of global oil transportation.

Bloomberg opinion columnist Javier Blas pointed out that despite extreme market panic, it is essential to clarify a key fact: **the disruption of shipping in the strait is the result of "commercial fear," not "physical blockade."** However, from a macroeconomic perspective, the energy market's landscape has not spiraled out of control.

**"Iran has not weaponized oil, nor has it closed the strait. Israel and the U.S. have also not attacked Iran's oil infrastructure."** Blas analyzed that the current significant decrease in shipping volume is more of a "self-imposed" pause by the market. At this stage, he describes the situation in two layers:

-   Significant decrease in shipping volume: He wrote that shipping traffic "has significantly decreased," but there are still a few oil tankers "safely passing through overnight."
-   No factual "closure of the strait": **"Despite the various sensational claims on social media, Iran has not closed the strait."**

Blas further added that **the current partial suspension is more like a "self-imposed" pause: on one hand, insurance companies have withdrawn coverage, and on the other hand, there is an industry pause "in response to requests made by the U.S. Navy in the initial hours of the conflict."** He also pointed out that some buffer comes from pre-emptive shipments before the attacks, "in February, oil exports from the Persian Gulf were nearly 10% higher than the previous month," with many goods having already left the regionBut he also warned that if Washington cannot quickly assure shipping companies of the safety of the Strait, a "self-imposed pause" could evolve into a real supply disruption.

Blas believes that when the market reopens, oil prices could jump by 10%-15%, with Brent crude potentially exceeding $80 per barrel. However, due to the U.S. shale oil revolution and the currently ample oil supply available, the global economy may not be severely affected.

**Currently, the two biggest concerns in the market—systematic strikes on energy infrastructure and the forced cutting off of tanker routes—“have not yet occurred, at least not now.”**

## **Goldman Sachs: The duration of the conflict determines asset direction, “2022 script” may replay**

If the Strait of Hormuz determines the magnitude of short-term price spikes, **then “duration” determines the paradigm of asset pricing. Goldman Sachs' strategy team pointed out in their latest report that only when crude oil supply disruptions evolve from a “temporary spike” to a “sustained blow,” will the market suffer substantial damage.**

Goldman Sachs specifically warns that investors need to be alert to the return of the “2022 energy shock script,” which is far more dangerous than a simple rise in oil prices: the current macro environment bears a striking similarity to the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and is even more complicated.

-   **Inflation is stickier**: Unlike a few years ago, the current underlying inflation dynamics have undergone a structural change.
    
-   **Dual drivers of fiscal and AI investment**: Current U.S. fiscal spending remains high, coupled with massive demand for AI infrastructure investment, which keeps inflation expectations elevated.
    
-   **Central bank's dilemma**: Once a persistent “cost-push” energy inflation erupts, **this cumulative effect will lock the Federal Reserve's space for rate cuts**. Goldman Sachs warns that if supply shocks persist, the market will be unable to ascertain the mid-term direction of interest rates, leading to **a sharp increase in rate volatility**, rather than simple fluctuations in rates.
    

**For various assets, Goldman Sachs assesses:**

**Crude Oil: The worst-case scenario is a “sustained complete interruption” of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz**

Goldman Sachs states that the key risk scenario provided by its commodities team is that the “most destructive” outcome is a “sustained complete interruption” of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The report also notes that “these interruptions have already begun,” but the core issue is “how long they may last.”

This aligns with Bloomberg's observation, focusing on the same market issue: even if oil prices spike at the opening, what truly determines whether the volatility extends is still the passage through the Strait, insurance and shipping recovery, and whether energy facilities are further included in the strike range.

**Gold, Silver, and Copper: Goldman Sachs places them in the “10% further increase” scenario assumption**

The report mentions that it uses the GSTOT framework to assess the spillover effects of commodity shocks and presents a scenario where gold, silver, copper, and crude oil prices each rise another 10%. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that if commodity shocks are “more persistent,” the distribution effects may “re-emerge” in the market.

Regarding gold, silver, and copper themselves, Goldman Sachs seems to be hinting at two points:

-   Once commodity prices rise from a "short-term spike" to a "sustainable increase," the weighting of asset pricing will shift from pure hedging to a more complex "inflation-growth-distribution" combination;
-   In this environment, market distribution will widen, and trading volatility and hedging demand will find it harder to return to pre-conflict states.

**U.S. Stocks: Predominantly negative, but "significant consequences" require more extreme and persistent oil supply disruptions**

Goldman Sachs stated that such risks and growth shocks are "clearly negative" for stocks and credit; however, only "severe and sustained" oil price disruptions (the report mentions scenarios like those in 1990 or 2022) will have a greater impact on the global growth outlook.

At the sector and style level, Goldman Sachs provides a clearer differentiation path:

-   "Cyclical industries" may come under pressure, especially consumer-facing sectors (including airlines) and large industrial oil consumers;
-   **Energy producers are relatively favored;**
-   Some cyclical sectors and markets that saw significant gains earlier in the year may be more vulnerable due to "position adjustments."

**Foreign Exchange Market: USD/JPY as the preferred safe haven**

In the foreign exchange market, negative supply shocks and growth risks will initially dominate the distribution effects of trade conditions (ToT). The report states: "In an environment of cooling risk aversion and rising oil prices, the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen may become the preferred safe-haven assets."

**U.S. Treasuries: Supply-driven oil price increases may lead to "more difficulty in cutting rates at the front end, and a flatter curve"**

In the interest rate market, Goldman Sachs emphasizes the "pull of rising inflation and declining growth." Their past research shows that a 10% increase in oil prices typically pushes the 2-year breakeven inflation rate up by 15-20 basis points; the impact on the 2-year nominal rate is smaller, around 5-10 basis points.

What traders should pay more attention to is the curve shape. Goldman Sachs noted that compared to the direction of interest rate levels, supply shocks more often lead to a "flattening of the front end of the curve": inflation limits short-term rate cuts, while growth risks constrain longer-term rates. Under this logic, Goldman Sachs states that the recent dynamics of the U.S. curve "flattening at the front end, with the 5-year segment relatively favored" may continue in the early stages.

Goldman Sachs also pointed out that if the market begins to price in a higher probability of "sustained conflict," rising volatility may put pressure on trades such as swap spreads; overall, the near term may face higher interest rate volatility.

**Europe Faces Hawkish Risks**

In Europe, although high energy prices represent negative trade condition shocks, Germany's fiscal expansion is entering the real economy.

Goldman Sachs believes: "This combination presents hawkish risks for the euro front end, and although it aligns with historical relationships, it may lead to a flattening of the curve, as negative risk sentiment helps anchor long-term yields."

Considering the lessons from the energy shocks of 2022, if cost-push energy inflation extends, higher fiscal spending may drive up inflation expectations. This makes it harder for the market to gain confidence in the directional view of mid-term interest rates, instead indicating higher interest rate volatility

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.