--- title: "If oil and gas infrastructure is attacked, oil prices may surge to $120! The key moving forward lies in the Strait of Hormuz" description: "Citigroup raised its short-term Brent crude oil price forecast to $85 and warned that in the extreme scenario of oil and gas infrastructure being attacked, Brent crude could soar to $120. HSBC pointed" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277423154.md" published_at: "2026-03-02T07:42:32.000Z" --- # If oil and gas infrastructure is attacked, oil prices may surge to $120! The key moving forward lies in the Strait of Hormuz > Citigroup raised its short-term Brent crude oil price forecast to $85 and warned that in the extreme scenario of oil and gas infrastructure being attacked, Brent crude could soar to $120. HSBC pointed out that if the oil transportation route through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, OPEC+'s approximately 4.6 million barrels per day of idle capacity would become useless, as this capacity cannot be exported, which would put significant upward pressure on oil prices The shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is being obstructed, which is repricing the oil market as a "geopolitical shock priority" market. The common conclusion among several investment banks is that **the key risk is not whether OPEC+ has idle production capacity, but whether these increments can pass through the strait**. If the passage remains restricted, the upward space for oil prices will be quickly opened. Brent crude oil opened on Monday with a jump of 13%, surpassing $82 per barrel, and as of the time of writing, the price is $78 per barrel. The market is beginning to prepare for longer periods of volatility and supply chain disruptions. Over the weekend, as the U.S. and Israel's strikes against Iran escalated into regional conflict, **tanker traffic in the strait has nearly come to a standstill.** Iran claims that the waterway remains open but simultaneously stated responsibility for the attacks on three tankers on Sunday. After the U.S. designated a maritime warning zone, shipowners generally suspended passage through this "choke point," while **about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas is typically transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz**, making any delays potentially transform into risk premiums. In this context, Citigroup has raised its short-term Brent forecast to $85 and warned that if regional oil and gas infrastructure is attacked, **there is a tail risk for oil prices to surge to $120.** HSBC emphasized that the strait is the "main variable" for oil market risks; once closed, the idle capacity in the Gulf region will struggle to play a stabilizing role due to inaccessible transportation. ## **Citigroup: Short-term anchored at $80-90, infrastructure attack scenario could push to $120** Citigroup has raised its short-term Brent forecast by $15 to $85. The bank expects that with ongoing risks to energy infrastructure and disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent is likely to trade in the range of $80 to $90 per barrel this week. The "baseline scenario" provided by Citigroup is that the conflict will cool down within 1 to 2 weeks, triggered by factors such as changes in Iran's leadership or the U.S. choosing to de-escalate after observing changes in leadership and weakening Iran's missile and nuclear programs. In a more aggressive scenario, **if regional oil and gas infrastructure is attacked, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel, with Citigroup assigning a 20% probability to this scenario.** The latest news reports that the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia has been shut down following a drone attack. According to Xinhua News Agency, Al Jazeera reported on the 2nd that three British and American tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. According to Saudi Aramco, the Ras Tanura refinery is the largest refinery in the Middle East, with a daily refining capacity of 550,000 barrels. ## **HSBC: Risks are "asymmetric," if the strait is closed, idle capacity cannot enter the market** In a research report dated February 27, HSBC assessed that the risks related to Iran are "asymmetric" for oil prices, with most escalation scenarios pointing to upward price movements, where **the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is the "main concern."** HSBC pointed out that the idle capacity in the Gulf region is "significant," with OPEC totaling about 4.6 million barrels per day, distributed among Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran. However, if the Strait is closed, a large portion of this capacity will be unable to enter the market. Approximately 19 to 20 million barrels of oil equivalent liquids pass through the Strait daily, **and alternative routes are insufficient to fully offset the impact of a closure of the Strait**. The bypass capabilities listed by HSBC include Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline with a capacity of 5 to 7 million barrels per day, as well as the Adcop pipeline from the UAE to Fujairah, but overall, it is still difficult to cover the volume carried by the Strait. HSBC estimates that about 19% of global supply (crude oil and refined products) needs to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and any "brief" interruption could push prices higher. The bank mentioned that in a scenario of "military escalation and Iranian retaliation," **Brent could spike to $80.** ## **Secondary Impact on Shipping and Refined Products: Not Just Crude Oil, Risk Premiums Will Spread Along the Chain** HSBC warns that the risks in the Strait of Hormuz not only affect crude oil but will also transmit to the refined oil market. About 10% of global diesel supply and 20% of aviation fuel supply rely on crossing the Strait of Hormuz, **and the tense situation has already pushed up middle distillate prices. If the disruption extends, some varieties may be more prone to temporary shortages.** From the traffic data, the "volume constraint" of Hormuz explains why the market is particularly sensitive to shipping delays. Gao Mingyu, chief researcher in energy and chemicals at CITIC Futures Research and Development Department, stated that by 2025, the total amount of **crude oil and refined products** exported by Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be 18.672 million barrels per day, **accounting for 27.1% of the global total**, of which **crude oil and condensate** will be 15.007 million barrels per day, **accounting for 34.5% of the global total**. ## JP Morgan Warns: If the Strait is Blocked, Storage Limitations May Lead to a Complete Shutdown of Middle Eastern Crude Oil Production According to previous reports from Wall Street Watch, JP Morgan conducted a detailed assessment of the storage capacity of seven Gulf oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Iran. The bank estimates that the onshore crude oil storage capacity of these countries is about 343 million barrels, equivalent to accommodating about 22 days of retained production. Additionally, there are about 60 vacant oil tankers in the Gulf region that can provide extra offshore storage buffer, collectively capable of storing about 50 million barrels of crude oil, thus extending the production maintenance time by another three to four days. In total, under a complete blockade of the Strait, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries can **only maintain normal production for about 25 days at most**. Once this time limit is exceeded, storage facilities will become saturated, and oil-producing countries will have no choice but to forcibly cut or even stop production. This assessment means that if the situation continues to deteriorate, **the global energy market will face not only price shocks but also a physical interruption of supply.** ## **The "Excess Supply Base" Still Exists, But the Short-Term Trading Framework Has Been Rewritten** Despite the oversupply situation in 2026, the price center and fluctuation range have clearly shifted upward in the short-term trading level. Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven pointed out that **the current risk premium of about $18 per barrel corresponds to pricing in the impact of a complete shutdown for six weeks.** His calculations suggest that if the Strait is fully closed for a month, crude oil prices will rise by $15 per barrel; if all 4 million barrels per day of backup pipelines are utilized, the increase will narrow to $12 per barrel; if further coordinated with a daily release of 2 million barrels from the global Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the increase will drop to $10 per barrel. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, stated that **if the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for weeks or even months, a scenario of $100 per barrel is entirely possible**; the actual effect of OPEC+'s production increase plan may be extremely limited, as this additional output also needs to be transported through the Strait. Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals, and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, also pointed out that even if OPEC+ announces a production increase plan in April, as long as the waterways remain closed, **the incremental capacity and existing backup capacity cannot enter the market.** CITIC Construction Investment's Gao Mingyu indicated that the Brent crude oil price increase cycle may last about 2 weeks, 1 month, and 2-4 months, with target levels pointing to approximately **$77 per barrel, $80-85 per barrel, and $90-100 per barrel.** ### Related Stocks - [USO.US - United States Oil Fund LP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [BNO.US - Us Brent Oil](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [XLE.US - SPDR Energy Select](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [IEO.US - iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [OIH.US - VanEck Oil Services ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [XOP.US - SPDR O&G Ex & Prd](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 油价攀升今年油气股涨幅有限 分析师：市场供应充足 \| 联合早报网 | 受美国与伊朗关系紧张影响，布伦特原油价格今年反弹超过 18%，重回每桶 70 美元。然而，本地七只油气股同期平均涨幅仅为 6.4%，市场反应不及去年 6 月。分析师认为，投资者将此次油价上扬视为暂时，股价提振作用有限。相比之下，去年 6 月 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276622041.md) | | 若霍尔木兹全面封锁，油价冲击 200 美元？德银拆解三种情景 | 德银将霍尔木兹局势划分为三类情景：若两周内重开，油价将回落至 70 美元区间；若维持当前的 “模糊封锁”，油价将在 80 至 100 美元波动；若演变为大规模布雷的 “强制封锁”，导致 OPEC 增产失效，布伦特原油或飙升至 200 美元。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277434513.md) | | 国际油价短线拉升，报道称沙特阿拉伯 RAS TANURA 炼油厂遭无人机袭击后关闭 | 国际油价因沙特阿拉伯 RAS TANURA 炼油厂遭无人机袭击而短线拉升，WTI 原油涨幅达 9%，报 73.07 美元/桶；布伦特原油涨超 9%，报 79.55 美元/桶。另有报道称，三艘英美油轮在波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡遭到袭击。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277419395.md) | | 伊朗媒体称伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇害 | 据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇害。（新华社）风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277331884.md) | | 我驻伊朗大使馆：郑重提醒在伊中国公民密切关注安全形势变化 | 中国驻伊朗使领馆提醒在伊中国公民关注安全形势变化，增强防范意识，避免拍摄敏感场所，留意相关标识。出行人员需关注航班信息，遇紧急情况应报警并联系使领馆。提供了紧急联系电话和服务信息。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277241490.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.