--- title: "How much impact does the war in Iran have? Societe Generale: Oil prices rise by $20, but the impact is \"more controllable\" than before, and gold remains the most effective hedge" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277474805.md" description: "Société Générale pointed out that the Iran conflict may push oil prices higher in the short term, but the economic impact is more controllable than in the past. Oil prices could rise by $10-20 per barrel, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, global buffer measures can stabilize supply. Continued oil price shocks could raise global inflation rates by up to 1 percentage point and decrease global GDP by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. Despite the risks, this shock occurs during a phase of economic robustness, with fiscal support and private investment trends still driving economic growth" datetime: "2026-03-02T13:38:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277474805.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277474805.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277474805.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277474805.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277474805.md) # How much impact does the war in Iran have? Societe Generale: Oil prices rise by $20, but the impact is "more controllable" than before, and gold remains the most effective hedge According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Manish Kabra, a strategist at Société Générale, stated that new geopolitical oil shocks related to the conflict with Iran may temporarily drive up crude oil prices, but the broader economic impact may be more manageable than in previous events. Over the past fifty years, the world has experienced five major oil supply shocks, with oil prices typically remaining high for about three months, after which the long-term impact depends on Federal Reserve policy and the global economic growth cycle. Three of these shocks—most notably the three in the 1970s—coincided with aggressive tightening policies from the Federal Reserve and triggered or exacerbated recessions in the U.S. In contrast, the last two shocks occurred during periods of relatively strong economic conditions, resulting in less damage to the macroeconomy. ![19055aadde8d029ba4c5791c8798e2e6.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260302/1772457607535398.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Société Générale stated that the recent surge in oil prices includes an estimated geopolitical risk premium of $8 per barrel and is likely only temporary, provided that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and global buffer measures such as OPEC+'s remaining capacity, China's strategic reserves, and potential stock releases from the International Energy Agency can stabilize supply sentiment. Temporary supply disruptions could push oil prices up by $10-20 per barrel, while more severe risks—including export losses or a brief closure of the Strait of Hormuz—could further raise the fundamental price of oil by $20-25 per barrel. An extreme scenario of oil prices approaching $150 per barrel is considered highly unlikely. A sustained oil price shock (of $20 per barrel) could raise global inflation rates by up to 1 percentage point and reduce global GDP by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, with Europe and Asia being the most affected. Major central banks may initially overlook this temporary surge in oil prices, but a continued rise in oil prices could delay the implementation of easing policies. Despite the risks, Société Générale believes that this shock is occurring during a relatively robust phase of the economic cycle, with economic growth expanding, fiscal support still in place, and trends in private investment (including repatriation, power infrastructure, and artificial intelligence spending) providing momentum. The bank stated that for investors, gold remains the most effective hedging tool, noting that gold typically performs well during oil shocks and can serve as a robust diversification investment tool amid ongoing fiscal expansion. ![d768307f55a74445dfb388e02b39a5c3.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260302/1772457618713921.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Previously, Goldman Sachs also released a research report stating that the Strait of Hormuz typically carries one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply, which appears to have suffered significant disruption. With reports of multiple vessel damage incidents, many freight operators, oil producers, and insurance companies have adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach The bank is currently assessing the upward risks to energy prices arising from developments in the Middle East situation. At present, the baseline scenario for energy price forecasts remains unchanged, based on the assumption of no sustained supply disruptions. Based on a 15% increase in retail oil prices over the weekend, Goldman Sachs estimates an immediate risk premium of $18 per barrel in oil prices, which roughly corresponds to the impact of a six-week complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz on fair value, considering that spare pipeline capacity can partially offset the impact. If there is only a 50% flow disruption for one month, this estimated impact will ease to an increase of $4 per barrel. However, if the market demands a premium for the risk of more prolonged supply disruptions, oil prices could rise significantly ### Related Stocks - [ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [Zijin Mining (601899.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601899.CN.md) - [SD-GOLD (600547.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600547.CN.md) - [ChinaAMC Gold ETF (518850.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [United States Oil (USO.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDX.US.md) - [EFUND GOLD MI-R (82824.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/82824.HK.md) - [iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RING.US.md) - [abrdn Physical PrecMtlBsk Shrs ETF (GLTR.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLTR.US.md) - [Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [EFUND GOLD MI-U (09824.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09824.HK.md) - [iShares US Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [The Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF (XLE.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [EFUND GOLD MI ETF (02824.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02824.HK.md) - [Gold.com (GOLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.US.md) - [Stt Strt®SPDR®S&P®Oil &GasEqpmnt&SvcsETF (XES.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [SPDR GOLD TRT-U (09840.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09840.HK.md) - [iShares US Oil & Gas Explor & Prod ETF (IEO.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [China Universal CSI Oil & Gas Resources ETF (159309.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159309.CN.md) - [SttStrtSPDRS&POil&GasExplor&ProdtnETF (XOP.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [Invesco DB Precious Metals (DBP.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBP.US.md) - [abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AEM.US.md) - [VALUEGOLD ETF-U (09081.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09081.HK.md) - [SPDR GOLD TRT-R (82840.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/82840.HK.md) - [Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOEX.US.md) - [Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF (GDXW.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXW.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGDJ.US.md) - [US Global GO GOLD and Prec Mtl Mnrs ETF (GOAU.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOAU.US.md) - [iShares Gold Trust (IAU.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KGC.US.md) - [VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXJ.US.md) - [VALUEGOLD ETF (03081.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03081.HK.md) - [iShares® Gold Trust Micro (IAUM.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAUM.US.md) - [Newmont Corporation (NEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [ZHONGJIN GOLD (600489.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600489.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Stakeholder Gold Closes Two Tranches of Flow-Through Financing | SKHRF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279845301.md) - [Klondike Gold (CVE:KG) Trading Down 6.4% - Time to Sell?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279651800.md) - [Sylla Gold Retires Debt Through Insider-Linked Share Issuance](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279353381.md) - [Major gold trade group releases framework for tokenized gold](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279887043.md) - [SNAPSHOT-Vietnam dong, gold rates - March 19](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279714508.md)