---
title: "Zhitong Hong Kong Stocks Early Insights | Oil Prices Surge, Reviving Inflation Concerns, Global Central Bank Rate Cut Expectations Cool Across the Board"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277532672.md"
description: "Rising oil prices trigger inflation concerns, cooling global central bank rate cut expectations. The Middle East war drives up oil prices, leading the market to reduce bets on rate cuts in the US, UK, and Europe. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in 2026 has dropped from nearly 50% to 20%. The Bank of England's rate cut expectations have decreased from 80% to 60%. The increase in oil prices has a significant impact on the global economy and inflation trajectory, potentially delaying rate cuts. US stocks are mixed, with oil and gas stocks broadly rising"
datetime: "2026-03-02T23:34:04.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277532672.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277532672.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277532672.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277532672.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277532672.md)


# Zhitong Hong Kong Stocks Early Insights | Oil Prices Surge, Reviving Inflation Concerns, Global Central Bank Rate Cut Expectations Cool Across the Board

**【Today's Headlines】**

**Oil Prices Surge Renew Inflation Concerns, Global Central Bank Rate Cut Expectations Cool Across the Board**

Due to the Middle East war driving up oil prices and triggering inflation worries, the currency market on Monday reduced bets on interest rate cuts in the U.S., U.K., and Eurozone. According to swap trades linked to policy meeting dates, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in 2026 has dropped from nearly 50% last week to 20%. Traders no longer expect the Bank of England to cut rates three times this year, lowering the probability of a rate cut in March from over 80% to 60%. They also halved the probability of the European Central Bank cutting rates this year, pricing in only a 5 basis point cut. The rise in two-year yields in the U.S., U.K., and Germany, which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, has outpaced that of longer-term yields. This reflects a significant jump in inflation indicators driven by Brent crude prices posting their largest increase in four years.

Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Newven Investment, stated: "The sustained rise in oil prices will have significant spillover effects on the global economy and inflation trajectory. A more persistent energy pulse could complicate the disinflation process and delay further rate cuts."

**【Market Outlook】**

**U.S. Stocks Mixed Overnight, Oil and Gas Stocks Rise Broadly**

Overnight, U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 73.14 points from the previous trading day, closing at 48,904.78 points, a decline of 0.15%; the S&P 500 index rose 2.74 points to 6,881.62 points, an increase of 0.04%; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 80.65 points to 22,748.86 points, an increase of 0.36%. Most large tech stocks rose, with Nvidia up about 3%, Microsoft up over 1%, and oil and gas stocks broadly rising, with ConocoPhillips up over 4%, EOG Resources up over 3%, and Occidental Petroleum up over 2%. U.S. cryptocurrency concept stocks rose, with Figure up over 17%, Circle up over 15%, and Strategy up over 6%.

The leading index of Chinese concept stocks fell 0.95%. Among the constituent stocks, AHG fell over 8%, Yuchai International fell over 6%, and the Hang Seng Index ADR rose, closing at 26,118.36 points, up 58.51 points or 0.22% from the Hong Kong close.

International oil prices rose on March 2. As of the close that day, WTI crude oil futures for the current month on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $4.01, closing at $71.03 per barrel, an increase of 5.98%. COMEX gold futures for the current month rose by $88.00, an increase of 1.68%, closing at $5,335.9 per ounce. COMEX silver futures for the current month fell by $3.68, a decrease of 3.95%, closing at $89.61 per ounce.

**【Hot Topics Ahead】**

**Vessels Stuck in the Persian Gulf   Middle East Container Shipping Rates Surge to $6,000, Shipping Risks Must Be Considered**

The U.S. and Israel's raid on Iran has led to a temporary halt in the Middle East supply chain. On the afternoon of March 2, a reporter learned from a shipping service company in Shanghai that many vessels are currently stranded near the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, unable to enter or exit. Amid the tense situation, most shipping companies have announced a temporary halt on accepting Middle Eastern cargo, with some announcing significant rate increases to cope According to reports, the freight rate for each large container has risen to around $6,000, involving the container shipping sector.

**COSCO Shipping Lines: Closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East and evaluating follow-up disposal plans for all cargo on board**

COSCO Shipping Lines issued a service notice regarding updates on the situation in the Middle East, stating that in light of the ongoing evolution of the security situation in the region and the restrictions faced by maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, COSCO Shipping Lines is closely monitoring the developments in the area and maintaining close communication with relevant authorities and security agencies. To ensure the safety of all operations, the following reminders are provided regarding the current status of vessels and cargo: Vessels that have entered the Persian Gulf should, under safe conditions, complete their scheduled port calls and operations, and then either drift or anchor in safe waters. Vessels heading towards the Persian Gulf have been notified to pay attention to navigation safety, taking measures such as reducing speed, heading to safe waters, or designated sheltered anchorages awaiting further notice. The company is evaluating all follow-up disposal plans for cargo on board and will strictly adhere to the relevant provisions in the company's bill of lading terms and conditions.

**Naphtha Cracking Margin soars to a four-year high**

On Monday, due to concerns over supply in the Strait of Hormuz, the Asian naphtha cracking margin soared to $134.30 per ton above Brent crude oil, reaching a four-year high. The rise in the naphtha cracking margin indicates a significant expansion in the profit margin for refineries converting naphtha into chemicals such as ethylene and propylene. This typically occurs when concerns over crude oil supply (such as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz) lead to fluctuations in raw material costs, while downstream chemical prices remain strong or increase even more. This news directly benefits Hong Kong-listed companies with large integrated refining capacities, ethylene/propylene production capabilities, and naphtha processing capabilities.

**Ongoing tensions in the Middle East may lead to a global daily crude oil supply gap of 15 million barrels**

Analysts told CNBC that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively entered a state of closure. Analysts pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20 million barrels of crude oil transportation daily, accounting for approximately 20% of global supply. Although Gulf countries in the Middle East can still utilize land routes to export some crude oil bypassing the strait, it is expected that only about 4 to 5 million barrels can be bypassed daily. This means that once the strait is blocked, the global market may still face a supply gap of up to 15 million barrels per day. Additionally, regarding the production increase measures announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Sunday local time, analysts noted that the increase is still a drop in the bucket. If the current situation persists, analysts indicated that international oil prices could soar to triple-digit levels.

**Qianwen will launch AI glasses, headphones, and rings, as giants seize new AI entry points**

In the past month, after Qianwen brought in 200 million orders with its "one-sentence ordering" feature, Alibaba hopes to extend this approach beyond the mobile screen to more forms of hardware. According to insiders at Alibaba, the personal AI assistant "Qianwen" under Alibaba will enter the AI hardware field, with planned hardware forms including AI glasses, AI headphones, and AI rings set to be launched in the global market by 2026 Among them, the Qianwen AI glasses will be released at the World Mobile Communications Conference in 2026, with reservations starting on March 2. To further enrich the user experience of these terminal hardware, according to "Intelligent Emergence," functions such as food delivery and ride-hailing on the Qianwen APP will seamlessly migrate to many future terminal devices.

**Ticket prices for the China-Europe route soar, with Shanghai to Paris skyrocketing 5 times**

Journalists found that ticket prices for the China-Europe route have surged. Taking the Shanghai-Paris route as an example, the economy class tickets for direct flights on March 4 are sold out, and the economy class tickets for direct flights on March 5 have risen to 30,248 yuan, compared to around 5,000 yuan normally. This week, the cheapest economy class ticket price for the Shanghai-Paris direct flight is over 16,000 yuan. With two international airlines in the Middle East suspending all route operations and domestic airlines canceling flights to the Middle East, many travelers who previously transferred to Europe via Emirates and Qatar Airways are now opting for direct flights, leading to a significant increase in demand for the China-Europe route.

**Yadea (01585) completes phase one of its smart manufacturing plant in Vietnam, with an investment exceeding $100 million**

On March 1, Yadea announced that phase one of its smart manufacturing plant located in the new industrial zone of Bac Ninh Province, Vietnam, has officially been completed, with an investment exceeding $100 million. The initial design capacity of the plant is 1 million units per year, with plans to gradually increase to 2 million units per year in subsequent phases. The first phase is expected to create approximately 800 to 1,000 local jobs, and the number of employees will increase to 3,000 after the completion of the second phase.

**MINIMAX-WP (00100): Average daily token consumption of the M2 series text model in February 2026 has increased to over 6 times that of December 2025**

MINIMAX-WP announced that revenue from its open platform and other AI-based enterprise services is expected to increase by 197.8% from $8.7 million in 2024 to $26 million in 2025, mainly due to a significant increase in the number of paying customers.

In programming, M2.5 set a new industry record in the SWE-BenchVerified test, achieving a 37% efficiency improvement over the previous generation M2.1. The average daily token consumption of the M2 series text model in February 2026 has increased to over 6 times that of December 2025, with token consumption from the programming package increasing by more than 10 times.

As of December 31, 2025, MiniMax has served over 236 million users across more than 200 countries and regions, as well as 214,000 enterprise customers and developers from over 100 countries and regions.

**【Stock Highlights】**

**Tuya Smart-W (02391): Net profit of $57.89 million in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1058.5%**

Tuya Smart-W (02391) announced that in the fourth quarter of 2025, total revenue was $84.5 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.0%; the overall gross margin was 47.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year; net profit was $19.3 million (fourth quarter of 2024: $9.8 million) In 2025, total revenue was $321.8 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 7.8%; overall gross margin rose to 48.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year; net profit was $57.89 million, a year-on-year increase of 1058.5%. By the end of the year, the company's balance sheet remained robust, with cash and liquid investments exceeding $1 billion and no interest-bearing debt. A special dividend of $0.0605 per share will be distributed on April 15, 2026.

By the end of 2025, the number of registered AI+IoT developers on the platform reached 1.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The cumulative number of AI Agents developed on the Tuya platform has reached approximately 16,000. The penetration rate of AI capabilities in end products continues to rise, and the pace of commercialization is steadily advancing. AI is transitioning from a single function to replicable AI applications and sustainable revenue sources, driving the platform's value towards a higher quality structure upgrade

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