Morgan Stanley raises MINIMAX target price to 990 yuan, reiterates "Overweight" rating

Morgan Stanley published a report indicating that MINIMAX (00100.HK) is expected to achieve an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of over USD 150 million by February 2026, one month ahead of the originally set target of USD 300 million by the end of the year. The company anticipates that the M3 series products, set to launch in the first half of 2026, will further accelerate the growth of ARR for that year.

The report states that MINIMAX's management expects to achieve a super product-market fit in 2026, with key driving factors including programming, office automation, and multimodal generation. In terms of revenue, the open platform and generative media are expected to dominate growth and contribute significantly to earnings.

Morgan Stanley raised MINIMAX's target price from HKD 930 to HKD 990, based on a discounted cash flow valuation, projecting a price-to-sales ratio of 56 times for 2027, and reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating. The optimistic and pessimistic scenario target prices are set at HKD 1,240 and HKD 300, respectively.

The firm expects MINIMAX's revenues for 2026 to 2028 to be USD 240 million, USD 712 million, and USD 1.531 billion, respectively, with projected losses per share for 2026 to 2028 of USD 1.63, USD 1.66, and USD 1.16