---
title: "Will The Iranian Regime Fall By June 30? Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying Amid US-Iran War"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277571311.md"
description: "The U.S. and Israel conducted strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders, escalating the conflict. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 36% chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30, down from a peak of 49%. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening vessels, while Trump warns of further military action. A separate Polymarket contract indicates a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely soon, with over $7.5 million wagered on the outcome."
datetime: "2026-03-03T05:39:25.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277571311.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277571311.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277571311.md)
---

# Will The Iranian Regime Fall By June 30? Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying Amid US-Iran War

The U.S. and Israel conducted strikes on Iran on Saturday, which killed Iran's Supreme Leader, **Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,** along with several other senior leaders.

Both sides continue to attack each other, with there being no signs of a ceasefire anytime soon. With the death of the Supreme Leader and several senior leaders, the regime's fate is unclear.

## **Here's What Prediction Market Thinks**

**Polymarket**, a **Polygon** (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the **USDC** (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, is currently betting on a contract "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"

Over $5.7 million has been bet on the contract so far.

As per bettors, the chances of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are 36%, up by 20%. It has, however, fallen from its peak of 49% on Mar. 1.

As of writing, a user “Curseaaaaaaaa” was holding 694,850 shares of “Yes,” and user “AML” was holding 383,000 shares of “No,” making them the biggest backers of each option.

## **Iran Closes Strait Of Hormuz**

Iran on Monday escalated tensions after it closed the Strait Of Hormuz, and said it would fire on any vessel attempting to pass.

The Strait of Hormuz is an essential trading route and around one-fifth of the global oil consumption passed through the waterway last year.

## **Trump Warns Of ‘Big Wave'**

President **Donald Trump**, in an interview with CNN, cautioned that a “big wave” of military action is still ahead in Iran.

## **When Will US-Iran Agree To A Ceasefire?**

A separate contract on Polymarket is betting on when the U.S. and Iran will agree to a ceasefire. The contract, which has seen action worth over $7.5 million, thinks that a ceasefire won't happen anytime soon.

**_Disclaimer_****:** _This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors._

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