---
title: "Fed Rate Decision: Low Probability of March Rate Cut, CME Data Shows"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277686115.md"
description: "The CME's FedWatch tool shows a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, with a 97.4% probability of maintaining the current rate. By April, the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 14.4%, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%. For June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 37.1%."
datetime: "2026-03-03T22:07:16.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277686115.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277686115.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277686115.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277686115.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277686115.md)


# Fed Rate Decision: Low Probability of March Rate Cut, CME Data Shows

The CME's FedWatch tool indicates a mere 2.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, with a 97.4% chance of maintaining the current rate. According to Jin10, the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April stands at 14.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%. Additionally, there is a 0.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by April. Looking ahead to June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut increases to 37.1%.

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