---
title: "Breakfast | The three major U.S. stock indices all fell, and the fear index VIX surged to its highest level since April 2025"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277692869.md"
description: "Trump's remarks scared the market, with all three major U.S. stock indices falling, and the fear index VIX soaring to its highest level since April 2025; precious metals retreated, with gold prices plummeting over 4%, briefly falling below $5,000; silver once plunged more than 12%"
datetime: "2026-03-04T00:09:54.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277692869.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277692869.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277692869.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277692869.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277692869.md)


# Breakfast | The three major U.S. stock indices all fell, and the fear index VIX surged to its highest level since April 2025

## Market Overview

**U.S. stocks fell more than 2% in early trading as Trump vowed to "spare no effort" on the Iran issue.** In the afternoon, news emerged that the U.S. would provide insurance and naval escort for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, **greatly alleviating market concerns, leading to a significant retreat in crude oil, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields from their highs, with the decline in U.S. stock indices narrowing.**

The Nasdaq is still down over 1%, and the S&P 500 is down 0.9%. **The VIX, or fear index, surged to its highest level since April 2025 during the session,** before retreating sharply.

**Crude oil once soared over 9%, but the gains narrowed significantly by the end of trading,** with U.S. oil rising 5% to above $74, and Brent oil around $81. European natural gas also spiked and then retreated.

U.S. Treasury yields initially followed the rise in oil prices, but the gains narrowed in the afternoon, **with the 10-year yield ultimately rising by 2.8 basis points and the 2-year yield up nearly 4 basis points.** The dollar surged sharply in the morning, reaching a new high since late November last year, before giving back some gains in the afternoon, ending the day up about 0.6%.

**Gold prices plummeted over 4%, briefly falling below $5,000. Silver once dropped over 12%. Bitcoin fell over 1%.**

During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell over 1%, with the "three oil giants" once again hitting the daily limit, while the semiconductor industry chain plummeted, and the Hang Seng Index fell over 2%. The large model stock MINIMAX rose over 9% against the trend.

## Key News

> **China**
> 
> **The agenda for the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference has been announced, with a session lasting 7 days.**
> 
> China urges Iran not to block the Strait of Hormuz? **The Ministry of Foreign Affairs** responds.
> 
> **Overseas**
> 
> **Trump** orders **dual measures to protect shipping in the Gulf region**, **Iran** warns vessels not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump meets with **Merkel** to "pressure" Europe, threatening **Spain** with trade cuts, denying being dragged into war, and predicting a sharp drop in oil prices. Iran claims to have hit U.S. "THAAD" system targets, with Iranian nuclear facilities damaged, and the U.S. Secretary of State states that strikes will escalate. **Both the U.S. and Iran are "spared no effort,"** with Trump boasting of "unlimited" ammunition and promising a swift response to the embassy attack.
> 
> **Qatar** continues to shut down the world's largest LNG plant, causing European natural gas prices to surge by 32%. **Iraq's** daily production cuts may reach 3 million barrels. London aluminum jumped, **Qatar Energy expands production cuts, with urea, methanol, and aluminum completely halted.** **The U.S.** states it has plans to "mitigate rising oil prices," starting to implement measures "in phases" on Tuesday. Reports indicate that the **IEA** plans to intervene rarely to stabilize the market, with **1 billion barrels of oil in reserve.**
> 
> The **U.S.-Iran** conflict reignites "inflation concerns," with the **probability of a second rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year dropping to 50%.** **New York Fed's Williams** states that further rate cuts depend on inflation progress, and tariff impacts are a "one-time shock." **Voting member Minneapolis Fed President**: The shadow of war looms over the economic outlook, and the **Federal Reserve can remain on hold.**
> 
> **Claude** experienced a brief "shutdown," with **demand being "unprecedented,"** and **Anthropic** reports a 60% growth in free users since January, with paid users doubling since October **ChatGPT** uninstallation surged by 295%, **OpenAI** admitted that the contract with the U.S. military was "too hasty" and urgently revised the contract.
> 
> **OpenAI** released a faster, more accurate, and more discerning model GPT-5.3 Instant, stating that GPT 5.4 will arrive faster than expected.
> 
> **Google** launched the fastest and most cost-effective Gemini 3 model, with response time improved by 2.5 times and output speed increased by 45%.
> 
> **Apple MacBook** lineup updated, with **Pro using M5 Max, AI computing power increased by 4 times, and Air featuring the M5 chip starting from 512GB**.

## Market Report

**U.S. and European Stock Markets**: The S&P 500 fell by 0.94%, closing at 6816.63 points. The Dow Jones fell by 0.83%, closing at 48501.27 points. The Nasdaq fell by 1.02%, closing at 22516.691 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed down 3.08%, at 604.44 points.

**A-shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.68 points, down 1.43%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.39 points, down 3.07%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3209.48 points, down 2.57%.

**Bond Market**: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose by 2.30 basis points, at 4.0575%. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury rose by 3.29 basis points, at 3.4999%.

**Commodities**: WTI April crude oil futures rose by 4.67%, at $74.56 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of 14.34% since the close on February 26 (over three consecutive trading days). Brent May crude oil futures rose by 4.71%, at $81.40 per barrel. COMEX gold futures fell by 3.98%, at $5099.40 per ounce. COMEX silver futures fell by 7.18%, at $82.470 per ounce.

## News Details

**Global Highlights**

**China**

The agenda for the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference is announced, lasting 7 days. According to CCTV News, the main agenda of the conference is: **to hear and review the work report of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the report on the proposal work; to attend the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress, to hear and discuss the government work report and other related reports, and to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development.**

China requests Iran not to block the Strait of Hormuz? The Foreign Ministry responds The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, pointed out that **China urges all parties to immediately cease military actions, avoid escalation of tensions, maintain the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent greater impacts on the global economy.**

**Overseas**

Trump orders dual measures to protect shipping in the Gulf region, Iran warns ships not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz**.** Trump stated that he instructed relevant companies to provide insurance for maritime trade passing through the Gulf region, and if necessary, the U.S. military will escort tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, without specifying the exact operational mechanism. U.S. oil prices briefly narrowed their gains to less than 0.7%. The Iranian military stated that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz may face risks from missiles or uncontrolled drones. **Commentators noted that if Iran continues to resist, even with these U.S. assurances, it will take weeks for shipping in the strait to fully resume.**

Trump meets with Merz to "pressure" Europe, threatens Spain with trade cuts, denies being dragged into war, expects a sharp drop in oil prices**.** Trump warned that Iran will face greater strikes, claiming that Iran's military capabilities have been almost completely destroyed; criticized Spain and the UK for lacking cooperation in actions against Iran; high oil prices will persist for a while, and after U.S. actions against Iran end, oil prices may even fall below pre-action levels. Spain stated that the U.S. must respect bilateral agreements with the EU. Merz stated that the EU will not accept any proposals that are worse than the existing trade agreement framework, having reached a critical point on tariff issues; the U.S. cannot impose prohibitive trade measures solely against Spain.

Iran claims to have hit U.S. "THAAD" system targets, Iranian nuclear facilities damaged, U.S. Secretary of State says strikes will escalate, Wang Yi talks with Israeli Foreign Minister. Iran stated that actions against the U.S. and Israel will be carried out on a deeper and broader scale, launching the 16th wave of strikes from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning, targeting multiple military sites in central and northern Israel; Iran's representative to the UN stated that now is not the time for negotiations. The body of Khamenei will be buried in Mashhad. The election for Iran's Supreme Leader is reportedly in its final stages. Trump stated that Iran wants to negotiate but it is too late. The U.S. Secretary of State stated that the U.S. and Israel will expand the scale and intensity of strikes against Iran in the coming hours and days. The Israeli military stated that it launched a "large-scale strike" against Tehran, killing a senior Iranian commander responsible for Lebanese affairs.

Both the U.S. and Iran are "uncompromising," Trump boasts of "unlimited" ammunition, and will soon respond to the embassy attack. The conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, with U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait being attacked by Iranian drones, while Israel simultaneously launched airstrikes on Tehran and Beirut, causing multi-front conflicts to suddenly intensify. Trump threatened that ammunition is "almost unlimited" and that he will complete the mission "at any cost"; Iran claimed it is prepared for a "long-term war." Qatar continues to shut down the world's largest LNG plant, European natural gas surges 32% again, Goldman Sachs significantly raises gas price forecast. Qatar's LNG export facilities were forced to shut down due to drone attacks from Iran, compounded by the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas futures surged over 60% in two days, with a single-day peak increase of 32%. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for European gas prices in April 2026 from €36 to €55, and a rush for supplies from Asian buyers has begun, undermining the logic of European summer replenishment. The most severe energy shock since 2022 is spreading.

-   With Qatar's production halt + Hormuz blockade, will this round of gas crisis be more intense than in 2022? Affected by the US-Iran war, Qatar's LNG production has come to a standstill and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, leading to a daily surge of over 50% in Asian gas prices. The potential supply gap is estimated to reach 120 billion cubic meters, exceeding the scale of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although current gas prices are still far below the peak in 2022, if the disruptions continue, the world will face severe impacts. It is generally believed that the trend will depend on whether the situation in Iran can calm down within two weeks.

London aluminum jumps! Qatar Energy expands production halt, urea, methanol, and aluminum completely suspended. After the drone attack on Qatar Energy's LNG export facilities, Qatar Energy announced a complete suspension of production for liquefied natural gas, urea, polymers, methanol, aluminum, and other products, with supply shocks rapidly spreading to the commodity market. Coupled with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the market is concerned about restrictions on both aluminum exports and raw material imports from the Middle East. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if the disruptions last for a month, aluminum prices could temporarily rise to $3,600.

Starting Tuesday, measures will be introduced "in phases," the US claims to have plans to "mitigate rising oil prices". US Secretary of State Rubio stated that US Treasury Secretary Basant and Energy Secretary Wright will announce a special plan to stabilize oil prices on Tuesday, introducing measures in phases. Following the US military strike on Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, raising market concerns about supply disruptions, with US crude oil futures rising over 6% on Monday.

Report: IEA plans rare intervention to stabilize the market, 1 billion barrels of oil reserves on standby**.** The conflict in the Middle East has led to the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil breaking $85 for the first time since July 2024. Reports indicate that the IEA plans to urgently mobilize 1 billion barrels of emergency reserves to stabilize the market, potentially initiating the sixth strategic reserve release intervention in history. Although supply is currently sufficient, the blockade of the strait has severely impacted LNG and crude oil exports, and a global energy defense battle is imminent Obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz and saturated storage, Iraq's daily production cut may reach 3 million barrels. According to CCTV News, on the 3rd local time, the Iraqi Ministry of Oil issued a statement saying that due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, international shipping has been interrupted, and oil tankers are obstructed from entering the Persian Gulf waters. There is a shortage of oil tankers at Iraq's southern ports, and the southern oil field of Rumaila has announced a suspension of production. In addition, affected by the regional situation, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq announced on the 3rd the suspension of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region to Turkey's Ceyhan port. If the blockade continues, daily production losses may reach 3 million barrels, equivalent to two-thirds of total capacity.

The renewed US-Iran conflict raises "inflation concerns," the probability of a second rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year drops to 50%. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude oil prices above $85, reigniting energy inflation risks. The surge in oil prices is being transmitted to end prices through transportation and fuel chains, and if maintained at high levels, it could cause overall inflation to jump by 0.7 percentage points. Under this pressure, traders are betting that the probability of a second rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year has dropped to 50%, significantly raising the threshold for rate cuts.

New York Fed's Williams: Further rate cuts depend on inflation progress, tariff impacts are a "one-time shock". New York Fed President Williams stated that if inflation continues to decline after the impact of tariffs fades, the Federal Reserve will have reason to further cut rates. He characterized the tariff shock as a "one-time price fluctuation," expecting peak impacts to fade within the year, with inflation returning to the 2% target by 2027. The labor market is showing a pattern of "low hiring, low layoffs," and household pessimism constitutes a warning signal. The current Federal Reserve remains cautious, and the rate cut window depends on data progress in the second half of the year.

Federal Reserve voter: The shadow of war looms over the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve can remain inactive. The President of the Minneapolis Fed compared the current situation to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, stating, "At that time, I was on the side of transience. It really is transitory, just more severe and lasting than we expected. Do we really want to experience transitory 2.0 again?" **The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" stated that the stabilization of the labor market and the hope to see more progress on inflation already made the possibility of a rate cut before summer unlikely, and the Iran war adds another reason to wait.**

Wash faces numerous challenges before taking office, Federal Reserve colleagues question the soaring oil prices, fearing it will make it difficult for him to fulfill Trump's rate cut dream. Given that US inflation remains high and the labor market seems to be stabilizing, most Federal Reserve officials believe there is no sufficient reason to rush further rate cuts. Some policymakers have expressed skepticism about Wash's vision for rate cuts, which is based on the belief that AI is about to bring low-inflation economic prosperity The ability of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates is facing significant obstacles, as the U.S. economy and its future Federal Reserve colleagues are moving in opposite directions, which could trigger potential conflicts with the White House.

Claude once “crashed,” demand is “unprecedented,” Anthropic claims a 60% growth in free users since January and a doubling of paid users since October. Behind the surge in users is the escalating dispute between Anthropic and the U.S. Department of Defense, which has listed Anthropic as a supply chain risk. This move is seen as unprecedented against domestic companies, while competitor OpenAI has chosen to contract with the Defense Department, unexpectedly accelerating the mass migration of users to Claude.

ChatGPT uninstallation surged by 295%, OpenAI admits that contracting with the U.S. military was “too hasty” and urgently revised the contract. CEO Sam Altman publicly acknowledged the mistake, admitting that the “hasty signing appeared opportunistic and reckless,” and added clauses prohibiting the monitoring of U.S. citizens.

Why did Claude crash, causing a global “circuit breaker” in AI? The global outage of Claude lasted over 24 hours, possibly pointing to attacks on Middle Eastern data centers triggered by geopolitical conflicts. This incident exposed the fatal vulnerabilities of AI infrastructure: a heavy reliance on a few computing nodes and physical networks. The more profound impact is that Claude has evolved from a tool into an “AI operating system” embedded in developers' workflows; under systemic reliance, a single outage can trigger a global productivity “circuit breaker.”

OpenAI releases a faster, more accurate, and more discerning model GPT-5.3 Instant, claiming GPT-5.4 will arrive sooner than expected**.** GPT-5.3 Instant was made available to ChatGPT users on Tuesday, emphasizing the enhancement of usefulness and accuracy in users' daily interactions, significantly reducing unnecessary refusals to answer and inefficient disclaimers, and optimizing the understanding of question context; compared to the previous version 5.2 Instant, it offers more precise filtering and synthesis of online information, with a more natural and focused conversational style; the previous model will continue to be available to paid users for three months, ceasing on June 3. OpenAI also released GPT-5.3-Codex and its derivative programming model versions.

Google launches the fastest and most cost-effective Gemini 3 model, response time improved by 2.5 times and output speed increased by 45%. Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite is designed for developers' large-scale high-frequency workloads, with a preview version available to developers starting this Tuesday, featuring a built-in “thinking layer”; Benchmark tests show that the model's first answer response time improved by 2.5 times compared to Gemini 2.5 Flash, with output speed increasing by 45%; scores for GPQA Diamond and MMMU Pro tests surpassed competitors like GPT-5 Mini; priced at $0.25 per million input tokens and $1.50 per million output tokens, with a maximum context window of 1 million tokens.

Apple MacBook lineup fully updated, Pro equipped with M5 Max, AI computing power increased by 4 times, Air first to feature M5 chip, starting at 512GB**.** The Apple MacBook Pro is equipped with M5 Pro and M5 Max, with AI performance improved by up to 4 times compared to the previous generation, and CPU performance increased by 30%; the MacBook Air features the M5 chip for the first time, with starting storage doubled to 512GB, and supports Wi-Fi 7 and Bluetooth 6. Both products run macOS Tahoe and integrate Apple Intelligence, focusing on local AI computing capabilities, and will officially ship on March 11.

**Research Report Highlights**

Investment Paradigm Shift! "New Bond King" Gundlach: Stay away from dollar assets and private credit, gold bull market extends to the entire commodity market. Gundlach warns that the dollar-centric asset pricing system is facing a historic turning point, and the reversal of foreign net investment in the U.S. will lead the dollar into a long-term bear market. AI hype has already exhausted expectations, and he suggests a complete exit from U.S. stocks, as private credit faces volatility cleansing. He remains bullish on gold, stating, "I won't sell gold at $5,000; my target price is higher."

Is the European natural gas crisis just beginning? Morgan Stanley: Currently only pricing for 1-2 weeks of interruption; if Qatar halts production for months, prices could double! Morgan Stanley predicts that in an extreme scenario, if the Ras Laffan shutdown extends to months, the European gas price benchmark TTF could surge to €100, approaching the squeeze market conditions of 2022. However, the European fundamentals are more robust than in 2022, and Qatari LNG only accounts for a small portion of Europe's total supply; if Middle Eastern disruptions continue, even if Europe turns to Asia for supplies, the supply-demand imbalance will not be as severe as in 2022.

"Buying Japan" is being liquidated. Nomura Securities points out that the U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices higher, revealing risks in private credit, and the market is concerned about deteriorating economic fundamentals. Previously, Japan attracted capital inflows due to AI semiconductor dividends, but as anxiety shifts towards energy shocks and recession risks, Japan's structural weaknesses—high dependence on oil imports and extreme sensitivity to cycles—are laid bare, causing its safe-haven function to fail. Overseas investors are accelerating the liquidation of "buy Japan" positions, leading to a market pattern of a weaker yen and pressure on Japanese stocks Chip "Preferred" Nvidia, Replacing Storage, Morgan Stanley's Reason: Stock Price Has Been Stagnant for a Long Time, and the "2026 Growth Peak" Theory Has Failed. Nvidia has been flat for two quarters, yet Morgan Stanley reaffirms it as the "preferred" semiconductor. The market is worried about its growth peaking in 2026, but the extreme purchasing actions of cloud giants with "three-year contracts and full prepayment" serve as the strongest counter-evidence. Morgan Stanley believes that a forward P/E ratio of only 18 times is a rare entry window. Regarding market concerns about a decline in market share, Morgan Stanley thinks that under the constraint of Nvidia's scale approaching "USD 80 billion per quarter," a slight increase in peer growth and a 1-2 percentage point share retreat is not unexpected.

"AI-Resources-Military" Survival Trinity - Global Asset Revaluation Under the New Debt Cycle. Soochow Securities believes that the world is currently entering a new cycle centered on "AI-Resources-Military" as a "survival trinity." Debt pressure is forcing technological leaps, and the implementation of technology will inevitably consume and compete for resources. The competition for resource sovereignty will ultimately bring security and military issues to the forefront. There are two major pricing expectation gaps in the market: a severe underestimation of the upward elasticity of geopolitical risk premiums, and as the mid-term election constraints increase and inflation stabilization demands strengthen in 2026, a strong dollar path is more likely to return.

Why Does Gold React Erratically in the Face of Crisis? As the US-Iran conflict escalates, why did gold unusually drop sharply? Deutsche Bank's latest research report breaks the illusion that "gold must rise in a crisis": the safe-haven premium of gold is highly uncertain and lagging. The real hard logic for going long on gold currently lies in its price resilience shown under a strong dollar trend, reflecting that there is demand support for gold independent of the dollar.

**Domestic Macro**

Shanghai Securities News: "14th Five-Year Plan" Starts with Development, Five Major Highlights of the National Two Sessions. The first highlight is how economic and social development targets are set, especially GDP, CPI, and employment targets. The second highlight is how macro policies can be more proactive, with experts stating that this year's macro policies need to balance "expansion" and "precision." The third highlight is what measures can be taken to expand domestic demand, with increasing income being the keyword for promoting consumption this year, and measures to "promote investment stabilization" are also expected to make multi-faceted efforts. The fourth highlight is where the focus of developing new productive forces lies, and the fifth highlight is how to advance reforms in key areas.

**Domestic Companies**

Review of the Spring Festival AI Battle: Doubao "Wins" Traffic, Qianwen "Occupies" Retention. Morgan Stanley's review of the Spring Festival AI battle shows that the four major platforms spent over 8 billion yuan to seize the "AI super entrance." ByteDance's Doubao topped the traffic list with its Spring Festival marketing, "winning" the short-term traffic battle. Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen has an advantage in retention dimensions, but its post-festival DAU running at a high level is mainly due to multiple extensions of coupons until March 3, and real retention still needs to be verified The report warns that burning money cannot buy a moat; victory or defeat depends on product strength and ecosystem integration.

Alibaba Desktop Agent QoderWork fully opens, an intelligent agent available for everyone. Alibaba Desktop Agent QoderWork supports Mac/Win with no deployment required. QoderWork integrates top global models and Agent frameworks, extending Qoder's Agent capabilities from the coding field to everyday work scenarios, allowing users to complete tasks such as document organization, data processing, and document generation through natural language dialogue.

**Overseas Macro**

The bond market has collapsed! The Iran conflict reignites inflation fears, global bond benchmarks see the largest drop since last May. Inflation concerns have once again dominated the global fixed income market, with government bonds facing widespread selling from Sydney to Tokyo. The global bond benchmark fell 0.8% in a single day on Monday, marking the largest single-day drop since May, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury surged by 10 basis points. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks, a new wave of "stagflation" is sweeping the global economy, with the ultimate impact depending on the duration and spread of the conflict.

One day before the U.S. airstrike on Iran, 12 Polymarket accounts made precise bets, is "Trump insider trading" resurfacing? Six hours before the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran, new accounts on the prediction platform made large, precise bets, raising suspicions of "insider players." Similar trading behaviors have occurred in past military actions. U.S. congressional members are calling for legislation to prohibit betting on military actions, with lawyers pointing out that trading based on improperly obtained information is illegal.

Eurozone February CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations; Iran risks push up oil and gas prices, market interest rate hike expectations rise. Eurozone inflation rose 1.9% year-on-year in February, rebounding beyond expectations; core inflation increased by 2.4%, and service inflation rose by 3.4%, exceeding the European Central Bank's 2% policy target. Coupled with the Middle East conflict causing a surge in European natural gas and crude oil prices, the "endogenous + imported" dual inflation pressure has surged. The European Central Bank's policy path is facing new uncertainties, with the market believing the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the ECB this year has risen to 50%.

Middle East situation impacts "this year's hottest stock market": South Korean stocks see the largest single-day drop in 18 months, U.S.-listed Korean ETFs plummet nearly 15% at one point, Samsung and SK Hynix drop about 10%. From "the strongest in the world" to a trading halt, the South Korean index Kospi plummeted over 7% in a single day! On Tuesday, U.S.-listed Korean ETFs also saw a sharp decline, dropping nearly 15% at one point before ultimately closing down over 10%. The U.S.-Iran conflict has driven up oil prices, combined with massive foreign selling of South Korean stocks, triggering profit-taking at high levels, leading to heavy losses for major stocks like Samsung and SK Hynix Market risk aversion is rising, the Korean won is weakening, and the shipping, defense, and energy sectors are strengthening.

**Overseas Companies**

NVIDIA "Believes in Light," invests $4 billion in Lumentum and Coherent. NVIDIA has invested $2 billion each in photonics technology giants Lumentum and Coherent, securing multi-billion dollar procurement commitments and future capacity rights. This move targets the core supply chain of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), aiming to solidify the optical interconnect foundation for the next generation of "gigawatt-level AI factories." Following this news, Lumentum closed up nearly 12%, and Coherent rose over 15%. NVIDIA increased by nearly 3% on the same day.

-   Paving the way for the release of new CPO solutions? NVIDIA bets heavily on optical interconnects to secure the supply chain for the next generation of AI architecture. According to Barclays, its demand is for "supply protection" for CPO. This timing is not coincidental, as NVIDIA "is likely to publicly discuss new CPO solutions at the GTC conference." The procurement commitments extend to 2030, with funds primarily supporting the domestic expansion of the two companies and the supply of key CPO lasers.

Report: SK Hynix is exploring new HBM4 packaging technology, aiming for NVIDIA's top performance targets. Core measures include increasing the thickness of DRAM chips and reducing the spacing between DRAM layers, with the technology currently in the validation stage. If commercialized successfully, this solution is expected to help SK Hynix achieve the top performance metrics set by NVIDIA for the sixth generation HBM4 and lay the foundation for performance improvements in subsequent products.

Following Blue Owl, Blackstone is also facing a redemption crisis, flagship credit fund sees a net outflow of $1.7 billion in Q1. The flagship fund Bcred, with $82 billion under Blackstone, saw a redemption request rate of 7.9% in the first quarter, exceeding the 5% warning threshold. To quell retail panic and ensure payouts, Blackstone unusually injected $400 million to stabilize the fund. Affected by asset impairment and peers suspending redemptions, these "semi-liquid" funds are facing severe liquidity mismatch challenges, marking a winter for new fundraising and investor confidence in this $2 trillion industry

## Today's News Preview

**The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) is held in Beijing.**

**China's February Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI.**

**February Services and Composite PMI for the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan, and India.**

**U.S. February ADP Employment Change.**

Eurozone January PPI.

Russia and Ukraine, along with the U.S., claim that a new round of trilateral talks will be held soon.

Federal Reserve Beige Book.

HarmonyOS Intelligent Driving Technology Renewal Launch Conference is held.

**Broadcom Earnings Report.**

U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change last week.

## Related News & Research

- [BREAKINGVIEWS-Revolut $100 bln price tag would set tough IPO bar](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277599042.md)
- [Honeywell Advances Breakup Plan As Aerospace Unit Files To Go Solo](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277652881.md)
- [Nvidia’s GTC Bombshell: Buy Now or Wait?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277697813.md)
- [AXT Inc Director Jesse Chen Disposes of Common Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277704386.md)
- [EXCLUSIVE-Walmart-backed PhonePe targets up to $10.5 billion valuation in India IPO, sources say](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277734421.md)