--- title: "高盛 “逆市看涨” 的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在 5 天后恢复流通，两周内恢复 70%，四周后恢复 100%" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/277853570.md" description: "中东局势动荡之际，高盛逆势唱多，其策略团队认为强劲的经济和企业基本面意味着近期的市场回调是买入机会，这背后更有对霍尔木兹海峡流通短期内恢复的乐观预期。高盛首席石油策略师 Daan Struyven 预计，霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来 5 天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的 70%，并于四周后实现 100% 的全面常态化。" datetime: "2026-03-05T00:43:06.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277853570.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277853570.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277853570.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277853570.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277853570.md) # 高盛 “逆市看涨” 的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在 5 天后恢复流通，两周内恢复 70%，四周后恢复 100% Amid global market turmoil, Goldman Sachs remains bullish, believing that the recent market pullback is a buying opportunity rather than the beginning of a long-term bear market. This optimism is underpinned by the institution's positive expectations for the "restoration" of traffic around the Strait of Hormuz. As previously mentioned by Wall Street Insight, the Goldman Sachs strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a report on Wednesday that despite risk assets facing "significant headwinds" from concerns over the Middle East war and the disruptive impacts of AI, the resilience of economic fundamentals and strong corporate earnings growth mean that the depth and duration of this pullback will be limited. Goldman Sachs' optimism about the global market is largely based on expectations for a rapid recovery of the energy supply chain. Goldman Sachs' chief oil strategist Daan Struyven expects that **the disrupted oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at its current extremely low levels for the next 5 days, then recover to 70% of normal volume within two weeks, and achieve full normalization at 100% within four weeks.** ## Recovery Path of Strait Traffic and Storage Pressure Goldman Sachs has set a specific timeline for the recovery of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank assumes that oil exports from the Strait will remain at current levels (approximately 15% of normal) for an additional 5 days, then gradually recover to 70% over the next two weeks, and reach 100% in the following two weeks. In the context of disrupted exports, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are facing severe storage pressure. Goldman Sachs estimates that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran have a total of about 600 million barrels of available onshore crude oil storage, while idle capacity before the disruption was just over 300 million barrels. In a complete shutdown scenario, this idle capacity can only accommodate about 23 days of "stranded" crude oil. **The report emphasizes that even if Strait exports decline by 85%, substantial production cuts will occur before the 23-day deadline arrives.** As crude oil inventory levels begin to approach storage limits, production will be forced to gradually decrease. Countries with smaller storage buffers, like Iraq, will face systemic congestion and be the first to cut production. ## Supply and Demand Expectations Push Up Q2 Oil Prices Previously pessimistic about oil prices due to "structural oversupply," several investment banks have recently begun to raise their target prices. Daan Struyven also stated in the latest report that the market is digesting mixed signals, with the gradual restoration of Strait traffic providing some relief, but increasing evidence of production cuts has reignited concerns. Based on the above judgments, **Goldman Sachs has raised its average price forecast for Brent crude oil in the second quarter by $10 to $76 per barrel, and its WTI crude oil forecast by $9 to $71 per barrel.** The report notes that the upward revision is primarily based on two reasons: first, the disruption of Strait exports will lead to a significant decline in OECD commercial inventories, with an estimated reduction of 200 million barrels in Middle Eastern crude oil production by March; second, persistent geopolitical uncertainty will continue to support risk premiums ## Long-term Price Reversion and Bidirectional Risks Despite strong support for oil prices in the short term, Goldman Sachs' adjustments to long-term oil prices are relatively limited. The bank raised its forecast for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 from $60 to $66 and increased its 2027 forecast from $65 to $70. Goldman Sachs expects that as the impact of disruptions fades, the market will return to a state of oversupply, with Brent spot prices falling from the current $82 to $66 in the fourth quarter of 2026. This decline reflects the gradual fading of a $13 risk premium and a $3 decrease in fair value. Goldman Sachs warns that the risks to the current price forecast remain significantly skewed to the upside. For example, if traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low for an additional five weeks, Brent oil prices could reach $100 to prevent inventories from falling to critical levels through massive demand destruction. **However, the downside risks cannot be ignored.** Market analysis indicates that if Trump's escort plan or diplomatic efforts yield results, leading to a faster-than-expected recovery of traffic in the Strait, the current risk premium could evaporate quickly. 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