--- title: "U.S. January retail sales negative growth highlights economic chill alongside \"disappointing\" non-farm payrolls" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/278115729.md" description: "In January, U.S. retail sales recorded a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, marking the first negative growth since October 2025, primarily due to low consumer confidence and severe weather conditions. Auto sales fell by 0.9%, and revenues from clothing stores and gas stations also declined. Meanwhile, in February, non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Walmart forecasted earnings growth below expectations, as consumer concerns about the economy persist. Following the data release, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026" datetime: "2026-03-06T14:12:56.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278115729.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278115729.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278115729.md) --- # U.S. January retail sales negative growth highlights economic chill alongside "disappointing" non-farm payrolls According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the U.S. retail sales month-on-month for January recorded -0.2%, marking a return to negative values for the first time since October 2025, with market expectations at -0.3%. The U.S. core retail sales month-on-month for January was 0%, consistent with expectations and the previous value. Due to low consumer confidence and severe cold weather affecting various parts of the U.S., retail spending in January decreased. ![f6c52137f57b224f1c5d2138e30c349c.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260306/1772805314423976.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Retail plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy, with consumer spending accounting for a significant portion of economic activity. Continued weakness or decline in consumer spending poses a threat to the U.S. economy, as household consumption accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth. The decline in U.S. retail sales in January was primarily due to weak auto dealer business, with seven out of thirteen categories experiencing a downturn. Auto sales fell by 0.9%, and revenues from clothing stores, gas stations, and health and personal care stores also decreased. Overall retail spending in the U.S. at the beginning of the year has been moderate, accompanied by concerns about the job market and cost of living. While affluent households can afford to purchase non-essentials, middle and low-income consumers may become more cautious. Another report released on Friday indicated a "cold snap" in the U.S. non-farm employment market. The unemployment rate for February was recorded at 4.4%, the highest since December 2025, slightly above the market expectation of 4.3%. The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in the U.S. decreased by 92,000 in February, marking a return to negative values after October 2025, while the market had expected an increase of 59,000. As an economic bellwether, Walmart predicted last month that profit growth this year would be below expectations due to the sluggish U.S. job market. Home Depot and Lowe's pointed out that consumer concerns about the economy remain, and they also indicated that they expect tax refunds will not translate into home renovation spending. The only service category in the retail report—restaurants and bars—saw a 0.2% decline in revenue in January. Several restaurants, including Sweetgreen and Mexican barbecue, reported that sub-zero temperatures and winter storms hindered sales. Following the data release, traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at least once in 2026. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell more than 20 points in the short term, now reported at 99.14. Spot gold rose more than $40 in the short term, now reported at $5,112 per ounce. Spot silver rose $1.6 in the short term, now reported at $83.85 per ounce. According to the latest market pricing, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in June. Earlier government data indicated a decrease in U.S. job positions last month. The global oil price surge triggered by the Iran conflict has raised concerns about further inflation, with the current inflation rate already exceeding the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. Just minutes before the employment report was released, traders had lowered the probability of a June rate cut to only 35%, but after the data was published, the expected probability of a June rate cut quickly rose to about 50% ### Related Stocks - [WMT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WMT.US.md) - [XRT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XRT.US.md) - [IYK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IYK.US.md) - [EBIZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/EBIZ.US.md) - [XLP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLP.US.md) - [ONLN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ONLN.US.md) - [IBUY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBUY.US.md) - [RTH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RTH.US.md) - [UGE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGE.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Walmart Joins U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol, Taking Major Step to Advance Sustainable Cotton Sourcing | WMT Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282696216.md) - [Walmart is refreshing the look of Great Value, its largest private label brand](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282821412.md) - [Guyasuta Investment Advisors Inc. 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