--- title: "San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly: Employment data is not sufficient to trigger a rate cut; decisions still need to be cautious due to inflation and oil price risks" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/278125698.md" description: "San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stated that despite the latest U.S. employment report being weaker than expected, raising concerns about the labor market, this does not mean the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates immediately. She pointed out that current inflation is still above target, and oil prices have risen due to the situation in the Middle East, necessitating cautious decision-making. Daly mentioned that maintaining interest rates is a policy option to gather more economic data. She emphasized that one month of data is insufficient to make policy decisions, and more time is needed to confirm trends" datetime: "2026-03-06T15:00:34.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278125698.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278125698.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278125698.md) --- # San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly: Employment data is not sufficient to trigger a rate cut; decisions still need to be cautious due to inflation and oil price risks According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, stated that the latest U.S. employment report, which was weaker than expected, has indeed raised her concerns about the state of the labor market, but this does not mean that the Federal Reserve needs to respond immediately by cutting interest rates. Given that inflation remains above target and the Iran conflict is pushing up oil prices, monetary policy faces "two-way risks," and decision-making must remain cautious. In an interview on Friday, Daly mentioned that the Federal Reserve had already cut interest rates last year, and one current policy option is to keep rates unchanged to gather more economic data before making a judgment. She said, "We have another policy option, which is to keep rates stable while obtaining more information." Daly pointed out that the latest employment data has indeed raised her concerns and may indicate that the labor market is weaker than previously expected. If the "breakeven" number of new jobs needed to maintain stability in the job market is about 30,000, then the latest data has fallen below this level. However, she emphasized that one month's data is insufficient to make policy decisions. She stated that the Federal Reserve cannot ignore this employment report, but it also cannot adjust policy based solely on a single data point. Factors such as strikes, extreme weather, and population benchmark revisions may affect data interpretation, so more time and additional data are needed to confirm trends. Regarding inflation, Daly noted that the U.S. inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and the recent rise in oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East may also bring new inflationary shocks. If energy prices continue to rise, consumers will directly feel the cost pressure. At the same time, she believes that current wage growth does not show signs of overheating. Ideally, wage growth should roughly equal the inflation rate plus productivity growth, and there have been recent signs of improvement in productivity. In terms of policy outlook, Daly emphasized that the key to current decision-making is weighing risks. There are signs of a slowdown in the labor market, but inflation has not fully receded, and the uncertainty brought by rising oil prices makes the policy path face "two-way risks." Therefore, the Federal Reserve needs to remain stable and should not act hastily before obtaining more data. Daly also stated that there is currently no evidence that the U.S. economy is overheating. 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