---
title: "Learning from history, the US stock market is still \"too optimistic,\" with too little pressure on Trump?"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/278186252.md"
description: "The current decline in U.S. stocks is insufficient; historical data shows that rising oil prices put pressure on U.S. stocks. Bloomberg statistics indicate that since 1990, the correlation between oil prices and U.S. stocks has turned negative. The WTI crude oil price has surpassed $85 per barrel, meaning that oil prices have risen more than 50% since last December. Analysts believe that U.S. stocks face greater downside risks, especially as oil prices approach $100"
datetime: "2026-03-07T01:13:28.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278186252.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278186252.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278186252.md)
---

# Learning from history, the US stock market is still "too optimistic," with too little pressure on Trump?

From past oil shocks, the current decline in the U.S. stock market is still far from sufficient.

According to Bloomberg statistics, since 1990, there have been several significant geopolitical events that have impacted oil prices, and the U.S. stock market has rarely been spared. As energy costs rise, its correlation with oil prices has turned negative. This analysis measures the 60-day correlation between the S&P 500 index and WTI crude oil futures during conflicts (or shortly after the onset of prolonged conflicts).

Currently, the decline in the U.S. stock market is minimal, and the surge in oil prices has just begun to exert pressure on risk assets. This week, the WTI crude oil price breaking above $85 per barrel means that oil prices have risen more than 50% since the low point last December, reaching overbought levels not seen since 1990.

The U.S. stock market will face greater downside risks, especially as oil prices approach the concerning $100 mark.

### Related Stocks

- [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md)
- [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md)
- [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md)
- [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md)
- [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md)
- [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md)

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