--- title: "CITIC Securities: Why Non-Farm Payrolls Saw a Significant Shift to Negative in New Employment" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/278214795.md" description: "CITIC Securities released a research report indicating that in February, the U.S. added non-farm payrolls significantly turned negative, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Although non-farm data is greatly influenced by technical factors, the actual employment situation may not be as weak as the data suggests. In the short term, the situation in Iran and oil price trends will be the focus of the market, which may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions" datetime: "2026-03-07T11:51:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278214795.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278214795.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278214795.md) --- # CITIC Securities: Why Non-Farm Payrolls Saw a Significant Shift to Negative in New Employment According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that in February, the U.S. added a significant negative number of non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.4%. However, the non-farm data for January and February was significantly disturbed by technical factors, and there are no signs of a sustained rise in the unemployment rate, which may have relatively limited impact on the market and Federal Reserve decisions. In the short term, the evolution of the situation in Iran and whether oil prices will remain high are more important factors affecting market sentiment. ## Guotai Junan's main points are as follows: **Non-farm Employment: Why the Unexpected Decline** In February 2026, the U.S. added -92,000 non-farm jobs, significantly lower than the market expectation of 55,000. From an industry structure perspective, the education and healthcare sectors saw the largest decline in employment, which is the main reason for the significant fluctuations in non-farm job additions over the past two months. On one hand, in February, over 30,000 employees of Kaiser Permanente went on strike, which had a negative impact on employment numbers. On the other hand, adjustments to the birth-death model may have also amplified the fluctuations in non-farm data for January and February. However, other employment data did not reflect a significant weakening risk in the U.S. job market; excluding the impacts of technical factors and strikes, the actual employment situation may not be as weak as indicated by the February non-farm job additions. **Unemployment Rate: Unexpected Rise** In February, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%. The rise in the unemployment rate occurred alongside a decline in the labor participation rate. The labor participation rate fell to 62% in February, significantly lower than the market expectation of 62.5%. Temporary unemployment and re-entrants are the main reasons for the rise in the unemployment rate. However, the current unemployment rate of 4.4% is still within the Federal Reserve's forecast range, and there is no sustained upward trend. Additionally, the U6 unemployment rate fell from 8.0% in January to 7.9%, which may reflect a relative improvement in the employment situation of marginalized groups in the U.S. **Oil Prices May Be the Main Focus of the Market in the Short Term** Overall, the U.S. employment data for February did not raise excessive concerns in the market. Compared to non-farm data, the evolution of the situation in Iran and whether oil prices will remain high may be more important factors affecting market sentiment. If the situation in Iran continues to escalate, leading to oil prices remaining high for an extended period and causing a significant rebound in inflation expectations, it may exert some pressure on the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace. **Risk Warning:** The escalation of the situation in Iran keeps oil prices high for an extended period ### Related Stocks - [IAI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAI.US.md) - [FNCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FNCL.US.md) - [XLF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLF.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [VFH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VFH.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Stock Market News Today, 4/8/26 – Futures Rally on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire; Oil Slumps Below $100](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282013446.md) - [BUZZ-Street View: In a shaky world, BlackRock’s breadth pays off](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282804870.md) - [LIVE MARKETS-US companies to post strongest Q1 EPS growth in four years](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282316120.md)