--- title: "Everbright Securities: How to view the significantly lower-than-expected non-farm data in February?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/278238915.md" description: "Everbright Securities analyzed the February 2026 U.S. non-farm data, reporting a decrease in employment of 92,000, far below the expected 59,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The analysis pointed out that strikes in the healthcare sector and severe weather were the main influencing factors. Despite the disturbances, future employment data may continue to deteriorate, affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations will also limit the space for rate cuts" datetime: "2026-03-08T01:18:06.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278238915.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278238915.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278238915.md) --- # Everbright Securities: How to view the significantly lower-than-expected non-farm data in February? According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Everbright Securities released a research report stating that on March 6, 2026, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the non-farm data for February 2026: non-farm employment increased by -92,000, expected 59,000, and the previous value was revised from 130,000 to 126,000; the unemployment rate for February was 4.4%, expected 4.3%, previous value 4.3%; average hourly wage increased by 3.8% year-on-year, expected to increase by 3.7%, previous value increased by 3.7%. From the perspective of interest rate cuts, the current Federal Reserve faces a trade-off between "stagnation" and "inflation," and there is uncertainty about interest rate cuts in the short term. However, if the job market continues to deteriorate, it may become a "constraint variable" for the U.S.-Iran situation. After the non-farm data was released, Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the employment data, but inflation expectations under rising oil prices will also limit future interest rate cut space. Under the constraints of the domestic economic situation in the U.S., the possibility of Trump taking swift action to actively ease the Middle East situation cannot be ruled out, creating policy space for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts in mid-year. ## The main points of Everbright Securities are as follows: How to view the significantly lower-than-expected non-farm data for February? In terms of reasons, the non-farm data this time was below expectations due to temporary disturbances from strikes in the healthcare sector and weather factors. On one hand, employment in the healthcare sector was the main drag on this non-farm data, mainly affected by the strike at the Kaiser Permanente in California and Hawaii. On the other hand, a winter storm swept through the northeastern U.S. at the end of February, leading seven states, including New York and New Jersey, to declare a state of emergency, which may affect employment performance in industries such as construction and offline services. It must be acknowledged that although the weakening of the February non-farm data has disturbance factors, with the further deterioration of the Middle East situation and rapid rise in oil prices, there is a risk of further deterioration in future employment data. From the perspective of interest rate cuts, the current Federal Reserve faces a trade-off between "stagnation" and "inflation," and there is uncertainty about interest rate cuts in the short term. However, if the job market continues to deteriorate, it may become a "constraint variable" for the U.S.-Iran situation. After the non-farm data was released, Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the employment data, but inflation expectations under rising oil prices will also limit future interest rate cut space. Under the constraints of the domestic economic situation in the U.S., the possibility of Trump taking swift action to actively ease the Middle East situation cannot be ruled out, creating policy space for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts in mid-year. **New non-farm employment unexpectedly declined, with weakening employment in the goods and services sectors** (1) Education and healthcare: In February, the healthcare sector saw a decrease of 19,000 jobs, far below the previous value of +116,000, mainly affected by strike events, and this was the main drag on this non-farm data. (2) Offline services and construction: The winter storm swept through the northeastern U.S. in February, with the construction industry (-11,000, referring to the number of new jobs in February, the same below), leisure and hospitality (-27,000), and transportation and warehousing (-11,000) all performing weakly. **Labor participation rate declined, unemployment rate increased** The labor participation rate in February was 62.0%, down from the previous value of 62.1%, indicating a decrease in employment willingness among the middle-aged group. In terms of the unemployed population, the number of unemployed increased by 209,000 in February, driving the U3 unemployment rate (= number of unemployed / labor force) up to 4.4%. Structurally, the number of temporary unemployed persons (increased by 79,000, previous value was a decrease of 83,000) significantly increased, reflecting a decrease in demand for labor by enterprises, while the number of permanent unemployed persons (increased by 30,000, previous value was an increase of 38,000) changed little From the perspective of interest rate cuts, the current Federal Reserve faces a trade-off between "stagnation" and "inflation." There is uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in the short term, but if the job market continues to deteriorate, it may become a "constraint variable" for the U.S.-Iran situation. After the non-farm payroll data was released, Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the employment data, but inflation expectations under rising oil prices will also limit future interest rate cut space. Given the constraints of the domestic economic situation in the United States, it cannot be ruled out that Trump may seek a quick resolution to actively ease the situation in the Middle East, creating policy space for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts in mid-year. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that after the release of the non-farm data, the market expects one interest rate cut in September 2026, with a probability of 42.3%, and a 95.5% probability of pausing interest rate cuts in March 2026. **Risk Warning:** U.S. economy falls short of expectations; international trade frictions intensify; geopolitical situation evolves beyond expectations ## Related News & Research - [A look at the incredible 11-day rally in the Nasdaq](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282876019.md) - [Coca-Cola (KO) Keeps Delivering as Markets Turn Ugly. The Bull Case Still Holds](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282954653.md) - [Google’s SpaceX Stake Revealed for the First Time, What to Know About Google, SpaceX and Musk](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282943946.md) - [Anthropic faces outages amid Coinbase and Bitcoin exposure](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282894974.md) - [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Q1 Preview: What Could 12th Straight Double Beat Mean With Shares Near All-Time Highs?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282878796.md)