--- title: "Breakfast | Three major U.S. stock indices reversed two consecutive declines, with the Nasdaq closing up over 1%" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/278457571.md" description: "Trump hinted that the US-Iran conflict may soon come to an end, the three major US stock indices reversed two consecutive declines, with the Nasdaq closing up over 1%; chip stocks rose nearly 4%; crude oil plummeted to close down 6%, US Treasury prices hit a daily high, and the dollar turned to decline" datetime: "2026-03-10T00:29:41.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278457571.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278457571.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278457571.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278457571.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278457571.md) # Breakfast | Three major U.S. stock indices reversed two consecutive declines, with the Nasdaq closing up over 1% ## Market Overview **Trump hints that the US-Iran conflict may soon end**, **crude oil plummets**, **US stocks accelerate rebound**, **US Treasury** prices **hit daily highs**, **US dollar turns down**. The three major US stock indices reversed two consecutive declines, with the Nasdaq closing up over 1%; **chip stocks** rose nearly 4%, **outperforming the market**, with SanDisk up over 10%, AMD up over 5%, and Nvidia up nearly 3%, leading the tech giants; after reports of reaching a sales agreement for weight loss drugs with Novo Nordisk, Hims & Hers surged over 40%. Trump stated that the conflict with Iran is basically over, and crude oil, which had approached $120 during Asian trading, turned down during US trading, with **US oil, which had risen over 30% during the day, dropping over 10% at one point**; US Treasury yields hit daily lows, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling over 10 basis points from its daily high; the dollar index, which had reached a three-month high during the day, turned down and hit a daily low, while the offshore yuan turned up and had recovered to 6.90, rising over 400 points from its daily low. Metals showed mixed results. Gold retreated, with spot gold dropping 3% at one point, but later erased most of its losses; silver turned up after initially dropping nearly 6%, with spot silver later rising over 2%. London tin rose over 1% for two consecutive days, London copper rebounded from a two-week low, while London aluminum fell nearly 3%, dropping from a nearly four-year high. During the Asian session, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks opened low and rose high, with **“lobster” concept stocks exploding**, oil and gas stocks narrowing their gains, and the Hang Seng Index approaching positive territory, with large model stock MINIMAX soaring over 23%. ## Key News > **China** > > **China's February CPI year-on-year growth** expanded to **1.3%**, the highest growth rate in nearly three years, while **PPI year-on-year decline** continued to narrow to 0.9%. > > Major players are collectively entering the market; after Alibaba and ByteDance, **Tencent** has also launched its own “little lobster,” pioneering “WeChat direct connection.” > > **CATL's Q4** revenue increased by 36.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company **surging 57.1%**, marking the largest increase in two and a half years, with a planned annual dividend of 31.5 billion yuan. > > **Overseas** > > **Trump** stated that the US military actions against Iran will “soon” end, **but “will not” end this week**, and will lift some sanctions to stabilize international oil prices. > > **After the G7 meeting**, it was stated that oil reserves will not be released for now, but they are “ready at any time” to take necessary measures to support global energy supply; reports indicate that the US **supports the G7 in releasing 300 to 400 million barrels of oil reserves**. > > **Middle East** “production cut” data: **production has been reduced by 2 million barrels per day**, and it will exceed 4 million barrels per day before Friday. Reports indicate that storage space is under pressure, and **Saudi Arabia** has begun to cut oil production. Saudi Arabia has rarely supplied crude oil in the spot market, listing 4.6 million barrels. **Qatar's** LNG expansion plan has been postponed to 2027, adding uncertainty to global natural gas supply. > > **Iran** warns that oil prices may rise above $200, potentially maintaining triple digits for a long time. Reports indicate that the US and Israel have **“for the first time shown significant differences”**: the US is dissatisfied with Israel's attack on Iranian oil facilities > > **Asia's Energy Defense Battle Upgrades**, releasing oil reserves, canceling fuel tariffs, and setting price caps on oil. > > **Jensen Huang Calls on DRAM Manufacturers to Expand Production**: Buy as much as you can; Samsung and SK Hynix have been selected as suppliers of NVIDIA's Rubin HBM4, with shipments expected to start in March. > > Lobster is back with a new offering: **OpenClaw 3.8 is Coming**. ## Market Closing Report **US and European Stock Markets**: The S&P 500 index closed up 0.83% at 6795.99 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.50% at 47740.80 points, and the Nasdaq closed up 1.38% at 22695.946 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.63% at 594.92 points. **A-shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.67% at 4096.60 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 0.74% at 14067.50 points. The ChiNext Index closed down 0.64% at 3208.58 points. **Bond Market**: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury was about 4.10%, down about 4 basis points during the day; the yield on the 2-year Treasury was about 3.54%, down about 2 basis points during the day. **Commodities**: WTI April crude oil futures closed up 4.26% at $94.77 per barrel. Brent May crude oil futures closed up 6.76% at $98.96 per barrel. COMEX April gold futures closed down 1.07% at $5103.7 per ounce. COMEX May silver futures closed up 0.25% at $84.523 per ounce. LME copper closed up about 0.7% at $12954 per ton. LME tin closed up about 1.2% at $50685 per ton. LME aluminum closed down about 1.7% at $3386 per ton. ## Key News Details **Global Highlights** **China** China's February CPI Year-on-Year Growth Rate Expands to 1.3%, Hitting the Highest Growth Rate in Nearly Three Years, PPI Year-on-Year Decline Continues to Narrow to 0.9%. The month-on-month CPI growth rate in February expanded from 0.2% to 1%, the highest in nearly two years, mainly due to the concentrated release of consumer demand during the long Spring Festival holiday, with significant increases in service prices. The month-on-month PPI growth rate remained flat compared to January, and the year-on-year decline narrowed, characterized mainly by rising prices in domestic related industries driven by the upward trend in international non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices, and increased demand in some industries driven by growth in computing power - The Guolian Minsheng Taochuan team stated that both CPI and PPI exceeded expectations in February. The main reason for the CPI increase was the "longest Spring Festival in history," which led to a concentrated release of service consumption, combined with consumption promotion policies and rising international oil and gold prices, resulting in a record high month-on-month growth rate for core CPI. The decline in PPI narrowed to -0.9%, benefiting from the transmission of international oil prices and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, which improved the bargaining power of midstream and downstream sectors. With demand stabilizing and supply optimizing, PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter, and the GDP deflator index has shown signs of recovery. The giants are collectively entering the market. After Alibaba and ByteDance, Tencent has also launched its own "little lobster"! The war of AI Agents has shifted from a technical competition to "who can truly enable ordinary people to use it." - Can WeChat raise lobsters now? Tencent released three lobsters in one day, and this final move is quite fierce. Tencent has launched the powerful AI tool QClaw, which introduces the killer feature of "WeChat direct connection." With just a WeChat message, AI can remotely control your computer to automatically create reports, write code, and post tweets. It has zero deployment threshold and all data is localized. This is not only a revolutionary office tool but also signifies that WeChat is evolving into an all-powerful "super interface." - Can a monthly salary of 20,000 support raising "lobsters"? Behind the explosive popularity of OpenClaw, costs are often underestimated. Beyond hardware, the model API calls represent the largest long-term expense, with a complete task potentially consuming thousands of tokens, and some users have bills exceeding a thousand yuan for six hours of use. Coupled with security risks, configuration thresholds, and "nurturing" investments, lobsters are far from being a cheap tool that is ready to use out of the box. CATL's Q4 revenue increased by 36.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders surging by 57.1%, marking the largest increase in two and a half years, with a planned annual dividend of 31.5 billion yuan. In Q4 2025, CATL's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 23.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.1%, the largest increase in two and a half years, with annual revenue of 423.7 billion yuan and net profit of 72.2 billion yuan, significantly outpacing revenue growth. In Q4, the global market share of power batteries rose to 43%, with installed capacity increasing by 30% year-on-year, and sales of energy storage batteries ranked first globally. The company invested 22.1 billion yuan in R&D, with new products like the second-generation supercharging battery leading in technology. The total cash dividend for the year is approximately 31.5 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 44%. With the outbreak of war in the Middle East, China's wind power orders have gone crazy. The escalating conflict in the Middle East has intensified Europe's strategic anxiety over energy security. As the local supply chain in Europe shows signs of fatigue in the face of urgent demand, even facing the embarrassment of core suppliers having contracts terminated, China's wind power equipment chain, which possesses advantages in cost, scale, and delivery certainty, Became the "substitute" in this energy restructuring. **Overseas** Trump claims the war with Iran is "basically over", U.S. oil significantly retreats from daily highs. Trump stated that the war with Iran could end soon, progressing "much faster" than his initial estimate of 4 to 5 weeks. "I think this war is basically over, it's almost done. Iran has no navy, no communication system, and no air force." - Trump described the military action against Iran as a "short-term operation." The U.S. is collaborating with Israel to conduct military operations against Iran, and Iran's drone and missile capabilities are being "completely destroyed." He also stated that the U.S. and its allies will continue military actions until the enemy is "completely defeated." - Trump said at a news conference that the U.S. military action against Iran will "end soon" and some sanctions will be lifted to stabilize international oil prices. - Reports: U.S. and Israel "first major disagreement": U.S. dissatisfied with Israel's attack on Iranian oil facilities. According to Xinhua News Agency citing U.S. media, the U.S. is unhappy with the Israel Defense Forces' attack on Iranian fuel storage facilities, believing that the scale of the strikes "far exceeds U.S. expectations," which could have counterproductive effects such as driving up oil prices. Reports cited U.S. and Israeli officials stating that images of burning fuel storage facilities could disturb the oil market and further increase energy prices. - Bank of America Hartnett: For Trump to win the midterm elections, the U.S.-Iran war must "de-escalate" by March. Rising oil prices have pushed Trump's economic approval rating down to 40% and inflation approval rating down to 36%, and the midterm elections may force him to cool down the U.S.-Iran conflict by March. Investors should sell crude oil at the $90/barrel price level, sell dollars when DXY is above 100, and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds at a 5% yield level, as risk assets are expected to bottom out in March. G7 stated after the meeting that it will not release oil reserves for now, but is "ready at any time" to take necessary measures to support global energy supply. The Japanese finance minister stated that G7 finance ministers unanimously agreed to continue closely monitoring the energy market; the IEA director called for the release of reserves. The IEA director mentioned that the G7 finance ministers' meeting discussed all possible options, including releasing reserves. The finance minister of France, the G7 rotating presidency, stated that the G7 has not reached that point yet, and currently, there is no substantial supply shortage in Europe and the U.S. An official from the European Commission stated that releasing reserves is one of the options being considered by the EU. Trump is reportedly considering export restrictions and tax exemptions to stabilize oil prices, claiming to have plans to address oil prices. The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that the U.S. government is discussing coordinating the release of reserves - Media reports that G7 plans to coordinate the release of strategic oil reserves. Three G7 countries, including the United States, support a joint release of oil reserves; some U.S. officials believe that **releasing 300 to 400 million barrels** of reserves would be an appropriate scale, which accounts for about 25% to 30% of the total reserves of IEA member countries, which is 1.2 billion barrels. Other media reports that G7 energy ministers will hold an online meeting this Tuesday. The U.S. position is that a joint release of 300-400 million barrels of oil by the G7 is appropriate. Middle East "production cut" data: has reduced production by 2 million barrels per day, expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day before Friday. Report: Storage space under pressure, Saudi Arabia begins to cut oil production. Saudi Arabia rarely supplies crude oil in the spot market, listing 4.6 million barrels! Saudi Aramco breaks the long-standing contract trading practice and unusually sells crude oil in the spot market through a bidding process. Currently, bids have been issued for Arab Super Light, Arab Heavy, and flagship Arab Light crude oil, with a total listing volume of about 4.6 million barrels for the three grades recently. The bidding price is set above the premium level of the March OSP. Iran warns oil prices may rise above $200, could maintain triple digits for a long time. Macron states that France may send troops to the Strait of Hormuz; Iran claims that as long as the U.S. and Israel continue their strikes, achieving security in the strait is unlikely, warning that tankers passing through the strait must be particularly cautious. Wang Yi has spoken on the phone with the foreign ministers of Kuwait and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia reports that one of its largest oil fields has been attacked by drones, warning that Iran will be the biggest loser if it continues to attack neighboring countries. Putin states that high commodity prices are temporary and urges Russian companies to seize the opportunity to use additional income to reduce debt. Trump will hold his first press conference since the actions against Iran, stating that it is not yet time for U.S. troops to enter Iran to "protect" nuclear materials. Qatar's LNG expansion plan postponed to 2027, adding uncertainty to global natural gas supply. Due to unprecedented production stoppage at the Ras Laffan plant caused by Iranian drone attacks, Qatar Energy has postponed the commissioning of the North Gas Field East Expansion Project to after 2027. This project is designed to have an annual production capacity of 32 million tons and is a key component of new global LNG supply in this decade. If the production stoppage lasts no more than one month, the first exports are expected to be realized early next year; if the situation escalates and the stoppage is extended, commissioning will be further delayed. The expected supply surplus in the market will be postponed accordingly, and the global supply-demand balance will face reassessment - Qatar LNG production halt impacts global supply, Morgan Stanley: Natural gas surplus in 2026 may be "erased". Morgan Stanley warns that this production halt will eliminate most of the expected supply surplus in 2026, and if the halt lasts more than a month, the market will shift to a shortage, with LNG prices potentially rising above $30 per million British thermal units. It also postponed the forecast for the first batch of cargoes from Qatar's North Field expansion project to the first quarter of 2027, thereby reducing this year's supply forecast by about 1 million tons. - Goldman Sachs: Qatar LNG supply disruption exceeds expectations, exports may "drop to zero" until late March, fully recover in May. Goldman Sachs warns that the Middle East conflict will cause Qatar LNG exports to halt until late March, followed by a slow ramp-up in April, with full recovery to the normal level of 79 mtpa (million tons per year) not expected until May. In response to this impact, Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its second-quarter TTF price forecast from €45 to €63 per megawatt-hour, and the JKM forecast from $16 to $23 per million British thermal units. While the U.S. market remains insulated, the Asia-Europe market will face fierce competition for gas supplies, with signs of industrial demand damage already appearing in some emerging economies in Asia. Asia's energy defense battle escalates, releasing oil reserves, canceling fuel taxes, setting price caps. The Middle East conflict has triggered a surge in oil prices, prompting several Asian economies to rapidly implement a series of energy emergency measures. Vietnam is cutting taxes and loosening restrictions to secure supply through market mechanisms; South Korea is reinstating oil price controls for the first time in 30 years; Japan is preparing to release strategic reserves; Bangladesh is reducing demand by closing universities and restricting fuel sales. If high oil prices persist, whether the government subsidy gap can be sustained will be a critical risk variable in this cost crisis. Jensen Huang urges DRAM manufacturers to expand production: Buy as much as you can. Jensen Huang stated at the Morgan Stanley Technology Conference that whatever capacity DRAM manufacturers expand, NVIDIA will use it all. With NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin platform adopting more complex HBM4 specifications, the consumption of memory resources has doubled, and the three major DRAM manufacturers' capacity expansions still struggle to fill the gap. - Samsung and SK Hynix selected as NVIDIA Rubin HBM4 suppliers, expected to start shipping in March. The memory competition for NVIDIA's next-generation AI flagship Vera Rubin has already begun—both Samsung and SK Hynix have made it onto the HBM4 supplier list, with mass production expected to start as early as this month. In terms of technical standards, NVIDIA has set a requirement for a transmission rate of 10Gb/s that exceeds industry standards by 25%, with Samsung already gaining an advantage by passing dual-level certification first, while SK Hynix is still catching up Lobster is back with a new release: OpenClaw 3.8 is coming. The update speed of OpenClaw is astonishing, with version 3.8-beta.1 released the day after version 3.7. This update focuses on five major areas: adding local backup and verification mechanisms to ensure data security; optimizing the silent waiting configuration for Talk voice mode; expanding model compatibility to millions of tokens and enhancing Brave search; conducting targeted slimming for macOS and Android; and completing comprehensive security reinforcement in areas such as script execution and SSRF protection. **Research Report Highlights** On OpenClaw, a whole “AI hardware” ecosystem is emerging. The OpenClaw craze is giving rise to a hardware ecosystem. From Rokid glasses, Light Sail Technology's headset and watch, to Weita Power's robotic dog, various hardware is actively integrating with OpenClaw. In this architecture, OpenClaw acts as the AI operating system, responsible for understanding and planning; hardware becomes the sensory and execution organs. The open-source community further drives the ecological explosion, allowing developers to embed OpenClaw into low-cost devices, transforming hardware from passive tools into active partners. Carriages, energy-saving lamps, and “slow living”: Every energy crisis in history has been a “forced upgrade” of human lifestyles. What truly drives technological qualitative changes is often not the abundance of energy, but the scarcity of energy. a16z's latest interview: It's too early to declare SaaS dead; the biggest bottleneck for AI implementation is no longer model intelligence. a16z interviews Atlassian CEO: AI is not the end of SaaS, but a catalyst for industry differentiation; software that handles complex real-world business processes will not disappear, and AI will instead grant them significant growth. The current biggest bottleneck for AI implementation is human trust in AI. Future software competition will not only depend on model capabilities but also on the barriers of business logic and the psychology of pricing. **Domestic Companies** Under the stimulus of “lobster,” in the first two months of the year, MiniMax's annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 50%, and the usage of M2 model tokens increased sixfold. Morgan Stanley stated that driven by the "lobster effect" (OpenClaw ecosystem), MiniMax's commercialization accelerated beyond expectations. Its ARR skyrocketed from $100 million to $150 million in just two months, an increase of over 50%; the usage of M2 model tokens surged sixfold in February compared to December, with the reasoning cost per token simultaneously dropping by over 50%. The upcoming M3 model aims for top global capabilities, with expectations for even higher gross margins Tonghuashun's revenue in 2025 is expected to grow by 44% year-on-year to 6.029 billion, with net profit surging by 76%, contributing over 60% in the fourth quarter. Tonghuashun's 2025 performance greatly exceeded expectations, with annual revenue of 6.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.00%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.79%. With the A-share market warming up, both institutional and individual investors are working together, and the company's revenue in the fourth quarter reached 2.768 billion yuan, accounting for about 46% of the annual total; net profit attributable to shareholders in the fourth quarter was 1.999 billion yuan, accounting for about 62% of the annual total. **Overseas Macro** Inflation panic reignites, expectations for two rate hikes by the ECB this year have been fully digested! Soaring energy prices have raised inflation concerns, and the interest rate swap market is currently pricing in two 25 basis point rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year, with the first hike expected as early as June, while last week the market only anticipated one rate hike. The money market is pricing in a 15 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England this year, and before the US-Iran conflict, the market also expected two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Bank of England this year. **Overseas Companies** The competitive landscape of AI platforms is quietly changing, with Claude's monthly traffic surging by 63%, but Google's moat remains unfathomable. On the web: In February, Claude ranked first with a 63% month-on-month growth due to model upgrades, ChatGPT grew by 7% month-on-month, and Gemini grew by 17% month-on-month. On mobile: Claude grew by 54% month-on-month, ChatGPT grew by 4% month-on-month, and Gemini grew by 12% month-on-month. Bank of America believes that AI is driving the expansion of complex search demand, putting Alphabet in a favorable competitive position. At the JP Morgan conference in South Korea, SK Hynix: The memory upcycle is expected to last longer than anticipated. JP Morgan maintains an overweight rating on SK Hynix, with a target price of 1.25 million won, implying a 35% upside from the current price. Management released multiple strong signals at the conference: a severe supply-demand gap, low channel inventory, and simultaneous growth in shipments and production, indicating that the upcycle will last longer than expected. Meanwhile, long-term agreements (LTA) are becoming a key tool for locking in revenue certainty. Apple raises inventory for foldable iPhone by 20%, TSMC and Hon Hai receive more orders. Apple has increased the inventory target for its first foldable phone supply chain by about 20%, with key components expected to start shipping from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter of this year, and the official product launch is scheduled before the end of the year. The new device features a unique liquid metal hinge and is positioned in the high-end market at a price of $2,000 Optical communication company Applied Optoelectronics announces receipt of first 1.6T transceiver order from hyperscale customer, stock price surges 15%! AOI announced that it has received the first mass production order for 1.6T data center optical transceivers from a long-term major hyperscale customer, with a value exceeding $200 million, marking the official entry of the 1.6T product into large-scale commercial use. Shipments are expected to start in Q3 2026 and be completed in Q4. The company is simultaneously advancing the expansion of its factories in Taiwan and Texas, USA, aiming to exceed a combined monthly production capacity of 500,000 units for 800G/1.6T by the end of the year. ## Today's News Preview **China's import and export data.** Japan and South Korea's Q4 GDP. U.S. February existing home sales. The U.S. Department of Commerce will hold a U.S. robotics manufacturing event. **Oracle**, Nio earnings reports. EIA releases short-term energy outlook report ## Related News & Research - [Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited Class H (3750) Receives a Buy from DBS](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278471797.md) - [Micron To Rally Around 42%? 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