---
title: "Why did Mengniu, whose profit is one-third of YILI, \"not listen to the advice\" to invite Ma Yili as a spokesperson?"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/278853485.md"
description: "Mengniu and YILI are fiercely competing in their Spring Festival marketing, with YILI hiring Ma Yili as their spokesperson, while Mengniu did not adopt the suggestion and chose other spokespersons. Although Mengniu has optimized its marketing expenses, due to a decline in revenue, it is expected that the net profit in 2025 will only be between 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion yuan, lower than market expectations. Mengniu's stock price rose slightly, while YILI's stock price performed better"
datetime: "2026-03-12T09:07:07.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278853485.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278853485.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278853485.md)
---

# Why did Mengniu, whose profit is one-third of YILI, "not listen to the advice" to invite Ma Yili as a spokesperson?

**In the first half of 2025, the revenue difference between Mengniu and YILI was 20.366 billion yuan.**

Author | Yao Yue

Editor | Yu Xing

Source | Yema Finance

The Spring Festival marketing has always been the annual highlight for YILI (600887.SH, abbreviated as YILI) and Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK, abbreviated as Mengniu), this pair of "old rivals." Yema Finance noticed that as the Year of the Horse approached, enthusiastic netizens first suggested **YILI invite actress Ma Yili as a spokesperson, with the slogan "Drink YILI in the Year of the Horse,"** and then netizens also supported **Mengniu—inviting Ma Yili as well, with the slogan "Yili also drinks Mengniu."**

As a result, **YILI** "took the advice" and indeed invited Ma Yili, while also **forming a diverse "Ma surname artist" lineup consisting of Ma Yili, Ma Sichun, Ma Long, and Ma Dong, and even invited Elon Musk's mother—Maye Musk—for its product Jindian,** prompting netizens to exclaim: the connections are terrifying, playing the Ma surname spokespersons to the ceiling! Meanwhile, **Mengniu**, which "did not take the advice," **also invited Li Dan, Law Kar Ying, and Wang Xiaoli, focusing on the concept of "laughter brings good fortune,"** which was creative but slightly less luxurious compared to YILI's combination of "top flow" and "national recognition."

Recently, with the release of Mengniu's 2025 performance forecast, the outside world saw the reason behind Mengniu's "not taking the advice"—**despite continuously strengthening the optimization of marketing expenses and controlling fixed costs, the profit margin has been further squeezed due to declining revenue,** while continuing financial cleanup, with a projected net profit of 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, and some institutions pointed out that if impairment impacts are excluded, its net profit would still be below market expectations.

As of the close on March 12, Mengniu's stock price rose by 0.56%, closing at HKD 16.12 per share, with a total market value of HKD 62.5 billion; YILI's stock price rose by 1.02%, closing at CNY 26.71 per share, with a total market value of CNY 169 billion.

**01**

**Why did Mengniu's profits soar while revenue shrank?**

Recently, Mengniu announced its 2025 performance forecast—this is the second annual report submitted by the new president Gao Fei, and also the report for his first complete year in office—profits soared, while revenue shrank.

This seemingly contradictory performance forecast is, in fact, the result of proactive financial cleanup + passive scale contraction.

According to the announcement, **Mengniu expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025.** Compared to 105 million yuan in 2024, **this figure represents an increase of more than 12 times year-on-year, but it is not due to explosive growth in the main business, but rather based on an extremely low base**—in 2024, Mengniu has made a large impairment provision for previously acquired assets such as Bellamy and Modern Dairy, with a cumulative impairment amount of 4.645 billion yuan, resulting in a net profit attributable to the parent company of 105 million yuan for the year, a new low in recent years.

In 2025, Mengniu will continue to make large-scale impairment provisions, with a one-time impairment of 2.2 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for idle assets, accounts receivable, and inefficient businesses. This means that Mengniu's profit could have been higher, but **Guoyuan International's research report points out that if this impairment impact is excluded, Mengniu's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 would actually be around 3.6 billion to 4 billion yuan, still about 10% lower than the market's previous expectations.**

Haitong International's research report believes that Mengniu's current performance fluctuations are a dual reflection of risk clearance and structural optimization. After the impairment is realized, Mengniu's asset quality will be further optimized, and it is expected to face the industry recovery in 2026 with a lighter load.

On the other hand, the surge in book profits is accompanied by a shrinkage in revenue.

According to the announcement, **Mengniu expects its full-year revenue in 2025 to decline by 7% to 8% year-on-year.** Based on the revenue base of 88.675 billion yuan in 2024, this means that Mengniu's revenue scale in 2025 will shrink to about 81.5 billion yuan, **falling back to the level of 2021 (88.141 billion yuan).** Moreover, on a quarterly basis, **the revenue decline in the second half of 2025 is expected to be between 7.1% and 9.1%, showing no significant signs of recovery.**

According to Guoyuan International's research report, the decline in Mengniu's revenue in 2025 is mainly affected by weak demand for liquid milk (Mengniu's revenue pillar business) and the continuously changing market competition environment.

The shrinkage in revenue further squeezes profit margins. **Mengniu admitted in the announcement that the decline in revenue** has weakened economies of scale. **Despite continuously strengthening the optimization of marketing expenses and controlling fixed costs, its operating profit margin in 2025 is still expected to decline by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, falling to a range of 7.9% to 8.1%.**

**02**

**Mengniu and YILI in the first half of 2025**

**Revenue difference of 20.366 billion**

Although both are referred to as the "duopoly of the dairy industry," a significant gap has already opened up between Mengniu and YILI.

**In terms of scale, the gap between the two has widened to 27.1 billion yuan in 2024, with YILI maintaining a revenue scale above 100 billion, while Mengniu hovers around the 90 billion mark.** The larger gap lies in profitability; in 2024, YILI's net profit of 8.453 billion yuan is about 80 times that of Mengniu. Even excluding Mengniu's large impairment factors in 2025, the restored net profit of about 3.8 billion yuan still shows a gap of more than two times compared to YILI's 2024 level **In the first half of 2025,** in terms of **revenue**, YILI reached 61.933 billion yuan, Mengniu reached 41.567 billion yuan, with a **difference of 20.366 billion yuan**; in terms of **net profit**, YILI achieved 7.235 billion yuan, Mengniu achieved 2.046 billion yuan, with **Mengniu being 28.28% of YILI, about one-third.**

Source: Canned Image Library

What is the difference between Mengniu and YILI?

Looking at the business segments, in the first half of 2025, under pressure, Mengniu's liquid milk achieved revenue of 32.19 billion yuan, while YILI's liquid milk revenue was 36.13 billion yuan. Thus, the key to the 20 billion yuan revenue gap is not here.

The real difference lies in the milk powder business. In the first half of 2025, Mengniu's milk powder business revenue was 1.68 billion yuan, while YILI's milk powder business revenue was 16.578 billion yuan, with **YILI's milk powder business volume being nearly 10 times that of Mengniu.**

At the same time, **in the first half of 2025, YILI's milk powder revenue proportion increased to 26.76%.** In contrast, **Mengniu**, although it has been making strides in fresh milk and cheese in recent years, with its premium fresh milk brand Daily Fresh experiencing growth against the trend, still **relies on liquid milk for about 80% of its revenue.**

Dairy industry analyst Song Liang believes that over the past 20 years, the development of liquid milk from nothing to safety and quality upgrades has created giants like YILI and Mengniu. However, today, the high proportion of liquid milk has become a core structural risk. After 2019, China's dairy product consumption entered a phase of saturation, especially with the slowdown in liquid milk growth. However, the consumption structure is undergoing significant adjustments: the proportion of non-direct drinking milk (such as industrial milk for catering) and solid dairy products (such as milk powder and cheese) continues to rise. This means that the era of purely relying on liquid milk expansion has ended, and dairy companies must transition to a product structure with high added value and diversification.

**03**

**Former "insiders" become fierce competitors,**

**What is the impact of Junlebao's IPO sprint?**

It is worth mentioning that behind the current gap between Mengniu and YILI, another well-known dairy company—Junlebao Dairy Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as: Junlebao) is considered a key variable.

In 2010, Mengniu invested 469 million yuan to acquire 51% of Junlebao's shares, becoming Junlebao's largest shareholder. In 2014, Junlebao officially entered the infant formula milk powder sector and quickly joined the dairy industry's "100 billion club" (with sales exceeding 10 billion). However, in 2019, Mengniu stated that it would "focus on the development strategy of star dairy products" and sold all of its 51% stake in Junlebao for 4.011 billion yuan In 2010, the acquisition price was 469 million yuan, and nine years later it was sold for 4.011 billion yuan. **The sale of Junlebao brought substantial investment returns to Mengniu, but at that time, under the guidance of the "double hundred billion" target, the real purpose behind this move sparked much discussion.**

When selling Junlebao, it was stated that there would be a strategic focus. **After selling Junlebao, Mengniu continued to seek development in the milk powder business.** In September 2019, driven by then-president Lu Minfang, **Mengniu acquired the Australian milk powder brand Bellamy for approximately 7.1 billion yuan (1.46 billion Australian dollars) at a high premium. However, the subsequent development of Bellamy did not meet expectations,** and at the beginning of 2025, Mengniu made a significant impairment provision for Bellamy.

**"The milk powder business is the crown jewel of the dairy industry!"** Song Liang stated, **the gross profit margin of the milk powder business is very high.** In the past, we have seen that the gross profit margin of infant formula milk powder is very high, and in the future, the gross profit margin of adult functional nutritional milk powder will also be very high, so the milk powder business is a battleground for competitors. **From another perspective, the milk powder business also represents a company's R&D level, determining the height of a company's barriers.**

Image source: Canned Image Library

Since becoming independent, Junlebao has been growing stronger, and now for Mengniu, the former "insider" has become a "formidable opponent." Junlebao is even currently making a push as a "breaker" to challenge the bipolar market structure of YILI and Mengniu.

**At the beginning of the year, Junlebao officially submitted its main board listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange,** standing at the threshold of an IPO, with funds raised for capacity expansion, brand building, R&D innovation, and digital transformation. **Behind it are several well-known institutions such as Sequoia China, Spring Capital, Ping An Capital, Hebei Broadcasting, and Moutai Jinshi.**

Starting from the yogurt business, Junlebao has now grown into a comprehensive dairy product enterprise covering various fields such as infant milk powder, low-temperature fresh milk, room temperature liquid milk, and cheese. According to a Frost & Sullivan report, based on **the retail sales in the Chinese market in 2024, the "Junlebao" brand has become one of the most well-known dairy brands in China, ranking third among comprehensive dairy companies.**

**As the "pursuer" behind Mengniu, Junlebao's core businesses such as low-temperature yogurt and fresh milk highly overlap with Mengniu's basic market.** In 2024, Junlebao ranked second in China's low-temperature liquid milk market, with a market share of 14.5%; third in the Chinese fresh milk market, with a market share of 10.6%; and second in the Chinese low-temperature yogurt market, with a market share of 17.2%.

In the milk powder sector, which Mengniu urgently needs to strengthen, **Junlebao's infant formula milk powder products launched in 2014 had a market share of 5% in 2024, ranking among the top three domestic infant formula milk powder companies.** In the first nine months of 2025, Junlebao's revenue from milk powder was 3.345 billion yuan, accounting for 22.1% of its total revenue **Song Liang stated that once Junlebao goes public, it will not only impact Mengniu, but will also create a tripartite structure in the Chinese dairy industry, especially in northern China, greatly establishing a mutual check-and-balance relationship. At the same time, it will achieve a higher quality of competition in the market.**

However, it is also worth noting that to completely challenge the bipolar structure, Junlebao still needs time. According to the retail revenue in 2024, Junlebao's market share is 4.3%.

**04**

**Can Gao Fei make Mengniu soar?**

In March 2024, Mengniu Dairy completed an important senior management change. After Lu Minfang, who had been at the helm for eight years and had not completed his term, suddenly stepped down, Gao Fei, a veteran of Mengniu who grew from the sales front line and had created the popular product Telunsu, took over as the new president.

At that time, Mengniu's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 had declined by 9.31% year-on-year to 4.809 billion yuan, and the previously proposed "double hundred billion" target had not yet been achieved. Meanwhile, the high-priced acquisitions of assets like Bellamy in previous years had not become growth engines but instead posed goodwill risks.

**After taking office, Gao Fei proposed the "One Body, Two Wings" strategy—** the so-called "One Body" refers to solidifying the basic market of liquid milk while promoting the upgrade from basic nutrition to functional nutrition; **the so-called "Two Wings" includes the diversification of product structure,** expanding from the past reliance on ambient liquid milk to low-temperature fresh milk, cheese, milk powder, and other segmented categories to meet the segmented demands under consumption upgrades; **the other wing is the internationalization of market layout,** extending the advantages of the Chinese market globally through overseas acquisitions and resource integration.

After Gao Fei took office, Mengniu's key financial measure was "clearing": it made large impairment provisions for two consecutive years. Although overall revenue has declined for two consecutive years, in the first half of 2025, revenue from ice cream, cheese, and "other" segmented businesses achieved double-digit growth, and revenue from the milk powder business also increased by 2.46% year-on-year.

However, based on the previous analysis, Mengniu still faces threefold pressure—first, its reliance on its main business remains unresolved; second, the milk powder segment still needs improvement; third, there are pressures from channels and inventory, with impairment provisions for accounts receivable for two consecutive years, which is seen as reflecting challenges in the cash flow of distributors to some extent.

Currently, **industry insiders believe that signals of a turning point in the dairy market are beginning to emerge.** As of the end of January 2026, the price of fresh milk in major production areas has declined for more than four consecutive years, dropping to 3.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 30.6% from the peak in 2021. With upstream farming continuously suffering losses and the reduction of dairy cow inventory accelerating, many institutions expect the turning point for raw milk prices to arrive in 2026. Once milk prices stabilize and rise, it will effectively compress the low-price competition space of small and medium brands, promote the restoration of terminal pricing order, and benefit leading enterprises in regaining market share.

This image may have been generated by AI Source: Canned Image Library

How can Mengniu seize the opportunity presented by the upcoming cyclical dividend?

Song Liang stated that the "one body, two wings" strategy clearly outlines Mengniu's transformation direction. The core focus is on the milk powder business—whether it is infant formula or functional milk powder aimed at adults and the elderly, both are the largest and highest value-added segments in the functional nutrition track. "Overall, **this strategy is Mengniu's attempt to break free from its reliance on liquid milk and seek new growth drivers during the industry's saturation period. Whether it can achieve breakthroughs in functional nutrition, especially in the milk powder sector, will be the key to the success or failure of this strategy.**"

Yuan Shuai, co-founder of the New Smart Manufacturing Productivity Salon, indicated that in the face of signals of a turning point in the dairy market, Mengniu needs to take multiple approaches to seize the cyclical dividend. **First, it should optimize its revenue structure and increase investment in high value-added categories such as milk powder and cheese, enriching its product matrix and reducing reliance on liquid milk. Second, it should strengthen brand building,** enhancing brand influence among young consumers through digital marketing and user operations, and expanding the market through emerging channels such as social e-commerce and live streaming sales. **At the same time, it should strengthen supply chain management, improve production efficiency, and reduce operating costs,** providing greater flexibility in product pricing. In addition, Mengniu needs to enhance technological research and development, developing more high-quality and personalized products based on consumer demand to improve product competitiveness, thereby quickly capturing market share and achieving revenue and profit growth when the market cycle rebounds.

**Do you like dairy products? Do you often buy Mengniu, YILI, or other brands?** Feel free to leave a comment

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