---
title: "Latest developments in the US-Iran conflict! What will long-term high oil prices bring? What major events to watch for next week?"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/279152916.md"
description: "The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, with market expectations that high oil prices will reshape the global asset pricing logic. High oil prices may suppress the valuations of technology stocks while activating investments in energy and resource sectors. The A-share market has already shown a flow of funds towards sectors such as electricity, coal chemical, and new energy. The U.S. is increasing its military presence in the Middle East, while Iran is considering allowing tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with settlements in RMB. Macroeconomists point out that although the U.S.-Israel alliance initially gained military advantages, it has failed to achieve its core objectives, and the direction of the war is influenced by multiple strategic games"
datetime: "2026-03-15T10:52:23.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279152916.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279152916.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279152916.md)
---

# Latest developments in the US-Iran conflict! What will long-term high oil prices bring? What major events to watch for next week?

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OSCixZRTsQFlPkQKGZP2wRT0E3yHxRM8zOXzAbz_EVERIAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Value Line | **Source** Next Week Preview | **Column** Bian Jiang | **Author** Qian Tang | **Editor**

**Value Line Overview**

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate over the weekend, creating a tense situation!

The anticipated "lightning war" is shifting towards a mutually exhausting "long-term quagmire," and the rise in oil prices is gradually becoming a high-probability event.

This will reshape the global asset pricing logic: on one hand, high oil prices suppress the valuations of technology growth stocks through inflation expectations; on the other hand, it is reactivating the investment value of "physical assets" represented by energy and resources, with clear benefits for sectors like coal, green energy, and oil services.

From this week's A-share market leaderboard, funds have already voted with their feet—power construction, coal chemical, and new energy sectors are leading the market. Under the expectation of a "war of attrition," the market is shifting from chasing "growth narratives" to embracing "hardware realities."

Next week, aside from the war, what major global events are worth paying attention to?

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OtXzGddYAaK0lJRxS546HNP6_Eo9Ad5rtzifMhoXlirw0AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) "Lightning War" Evolves into "War of Attrition"

The direction of the U.S.-Iran war remains the focus of global investors.

According to the latest news updates, the conflict between the two sides continues to be tense.

The U.S. has begun to deploy more Marine Corps troops and warships to the Middle East. After the new hardline leadership in Iran took office, they blocked the Strait of Hormuz and continued to strike U.S. military bases and Israel.

The air defense system at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq has been destroyed, and the U.S. is offering rewards for information on Iran's new Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, Iran is considering allowing a limited number of tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided that the oil cargoes they carry must be settled in Renminbi.

**Macroeconomist Ren Zeping analyzes:**

From the battlefield situation, although the U.S.-Israel alliance achieved initial results due to military advantages, destroying a large number of Iranian military targets and weakening their air defense system, they failed to achieve the core objectives of paralyzing the opponent's command system and eliminating counterattack capabilities. High-intensity military operations are quickly depleting precision-guided munitions stocks, raising concerns about the long-term combat capabilities of the U.S. military.

Iran's determination and resilience in battle have exceeded expectations; after suffering setbacks in leadership, they quickly completed a power transition and continued to retaliate through asymmetric warfare methods, striking U.S. military bases and missile defense systems, and expanding the conflict across multiple fronts with the help of the "Resistance Arc." This strategy of attrition, leveraging small forces against larger ones, gradually offsets the military technological advantages of the U.S. and Israel.

The ultimate direction of the war is the result of multiple games interacting. Among them, domestic political pressure in the U.S. is particularly critical. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the rising costs of war are causing public dissatisfaction, and the increase in oil prices further exacerbates the pressure on people's livelihoods, which will force Trump to seek a dignified exit. At the same time, the sustainability of ammunition stocks, the production capacity of Iran's underground facilities, and the extent of proxy wars will all affect the duration and ultimate direction of the conflict **Comprehensive judgment indicates that as both sides continue to exhaust their resources, future conflicts may shift from high-intensity confrontations to a state of military stalemate, political maneuvering, and third-party mediation coexisting. After incurring significant costs, both sides may reach a fragile balance. The U.S. and Israel may reduce military intensity under the pretext of achieving "** **phased objectives** **, while Iran may use this opportunity to consolidate its regional influence and internal regime.**

The challenge facing the U.S.-Israel alliance is how to control losses within a limited time window and avoid getting bogged down in a long-term quagmire; while Iran's strategic core is to drag the war into a phase of consumption that the opponent cannot bear through sustained resistance, thereby striving for better negotiation leverage.

**Market participants have also noted:**

What we are currently witnessing is a diminishing influence of the United States, as well as an Iran that operates on a "you hit me, I hit them" basis. In other words, the constraints of the old order are weakening, while the feedback loop of direct confrontation is strengthening, making it increasingly easy for the situation to continue evolving along paths of mutual retaliation and escalation.

If we acknowledge that U.S. influence is marginally declining and that it will move towards a sort of "Monroe Doctrine"\-style North American contraction in the future, then the real optimal solution for the U.S. has never been to expand its front but to retract it. For the current U.S., what is most needed is to recuperate, rebuild industrial capacity, and promote the return of manufacturing, rather than continuing to reinforce positions after being trapped in high-cost external fronts.

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OV_YLmPoGGWxQa7vwLVg0rc-y0G0XtQFul5cT8yZHrXykAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)****What will high oil prices bring?****

As the market gradually accepts the prediction that the U.S.-Iran conflict will shift from "blitzkrieg" to "war of attrition," the long-term rise of the oil price center becomes a core variable affecting global asset pricing. This not only means that fueling up has become more expensive but will also reshape the valuation system and industry landscape of the capital market through complex transmission chains.

1.  Suppression of high valuations in technology

Long-term high oil prices significantly suppress the valuations of technology stocks, especially growth-style tech stocks. The transmission path has many similarities to the period of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

Dongxing Securities analysis points out that the transmission path of this round of conflict to A-shares has certain similarities with the Russia-Ukraine conflict: rising oil price center — inflation expectations — marginal tightening of Federal Reserve policy — deterioration of dollar liquidity — pressure on growth stocks. The current industrial trends and liquidity environment in the market share many similarities with 2022. The year 2022 marked the beginning of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, while 2026 is at the tail end of a loosening cycle, with absolute interest rates still remaining high. The already high fiscal deficit has been exerting continuous upward pressure on inflation, and the oil price shocks brought about by geopolitical factors will further disturb inflation expectations, potentially even directly leading to a "pause" in the interest rate cut process.

In terms of industrial trends, the core growth tracks of both periods face pressure from mismatched growth momentum and capital expenditure. In 2022, the new energy industry transitioned smoothly from a high-speed growth phase to a mature phase, with a weakening of prosperity; while currently, the penetration rate of AI Agents is rapidly increasing, but the deep application in the downstream real economy has not yet scaled, leading investors to question whether the continued high expenditure in the upstream computing hardware sector can deliver profits In this context, if oil prices continue to rise, it will trigger a re-examination of inflation and liquidity in the market, challenging the logic of technology growth stocks and putting pressure on valuations.

1.  Which sectors will benefit or withstand pressure?

High oil prices are not entirely negative; they will reshape the profit patterns of different industries along three main lines: cost push, substitution effect, and industrial restructuring. Based on analyses from institutions like Huatai Securities, the following four categories of sectors exhibit significant characteristics of benefiting or withstanding pressure:

**First Category: Direct Beneficiaries - Oil and Gas Extraction**

This is the most direct and certain beneficiary sector of rising oil prices. Upstream resource companies have resource reserves, and when oil prices rise, product prices increase directly, significantly expanding profit margins. Since the beginning of the year, the Shenwan Petroleum and Petrochemical Index has led the market in growth, fully reflecting this logic.

**Second Category: Substitution Effect - Coal, New Energy Vehicles, Green Electricity**

Long-term high oil prices will strengthen the consensus on energy security and accelerate the substitution process for fossil energy.

Coal: As the dominant energy source in the country, its value as a "ballast" for energy security becomes prominent when oil and gas prices are high, and the economics of coal chemical routes also improve.

New Energy Vehicles: Huatai Securities analyzes that the demand for fuel vehicles may face downward risks, but driven by energy efficiency advantages, the incremental growth of new energy vehicles is expected to form an effective hedge. High oil prices will widen the full lifecycle cost gap between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, stimulating consumption of new energy vehicles.

Green Electricity (Photovoltaics, Energy Storage, Hydrogen Energy): GF Securities points out that soaring oil and gas prices once again emphasize energy security, making the transition to green energy urgent. Photovoltaic storage systems are not only an economic choice but also a "strategic insurance" for ensuring energy supply. High oil prices will enhance the economics of photovoltaic installations and accelerate the development of cutting-edge fields like green hydrogen.

**Third Category: Strong Price Transmission Ability - Oil Services, Cement, Chemical Raw Materials**

These industries are in the midstream of the industrial chain and have the ability to smoothly pass on the pressure of rising upstream costs to downstream, and may even benefit from structural opportunities triggered by rising oil prices.

Oil Services: High oil prices will stimulate oil and gas companies to increase capital expenditures, directly driving the operational volume and equipment demand of oil service companies.

Coal Chemicals: When oil prices exceed a certain point, the cost advantages of coal-to-olefins and coal-to-liquid routes will become apparent. Currently, domestic coal prices are constrained by supply guarantee and price stabilization policies, with controllable increases, allowing the price difference of coal chemical products to continue to expand. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East may affect the supply of overseas chemical products, freeing up market space for domestic companies.

Chemical Raw Materials: The prices of some chemical products are highly correlated with oil prices, and companies with cost transfer capabilities have gross profit margins that exhibit a positive β coefficient to oil prices.

**Fourth Category: Defensive Consumer Staples - Livestock, Retail**

These industries have a lower correlation with the macroeconomic cycle and energy prices, with relatively inelastic demand. In the context of high oil prices triggering inflation expectations and market volatility, sectors such as livestock, food and beverages, and retail, due to their defensive attributes, are likely to become a "safe haven" for funds, demonstrating strong resilience against declines.

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OtxTeJ66lVopiXp5E7taujYnIP8nmDSx10to3ilEifMYQAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)****A**** Share weekly trading data, where is the market's main line? **This Week's A-Share Market Capitalization Growth Rankings**

1.  Top 10 Companies with Market Capitalization Over 50 Billion This Week

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oi11Cb4LUTjX86L0Y5_vrrXWS3FIr1YpBhFK0eKxFpG-gAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  Top 10 Companies with Market Capitalization Between 10-50 Billion This Week

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OgXi3h1L3KJNXSfMCJNAch_EERmC4Tsafh5S3nZOOfBOAAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  Top 10 Companies with Market Capitalization Under 10 Billion This Week

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OAg8t9ycuDhIjd2Y9CxSm-BYXxE3WhVS-id_0z8771814AA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  Top 10 Companies with the Largest Declines This Week

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O19dZBm18AniImQdQCcPVMN70qYdMPjDqHdqoyu_wpqhcAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

Last week, the value line mentioned a strategy of using the coal chemical sector, which benefits from oil, to hedge against the high valuation of technology stocks. Notably, Baofeng Energy, which was analyzed in detail, rose 21% this week.

Data shows that the large-cap stocks with the highest growth this week are mainly in the sectors of power construction, coal chemical (chemicals), and new energy green electricity, with the major catalysts being the power shortage and high oil prices.

At the same time, there were news stimuli for wind power and lithium batteries this week:

Recently, the UK government announced the cancellation of import tariffs on 33 wind power components, reducing the tax rate on core components such as wind turbine blades and cables to 0. This move aims to accelerate the construction of offshore wind power projects in the North Sea, expected to attract investments of over £10 billion, directly benefiting domestic wind power companies with cost and capacity advantages.

**Analysis of the Logic Behind the Rise of Dajin Heavy Industry:** The company holds a leading position in the European offshore wind power infrastructure market and has formed strategic, long-term partnerships with several leading offshore wind power developers in Europe. In addition to manufacturing offshore engineering products, the company has independently developed high-end deck transport vessels that can meet the customized transoceanic transport needs of global wind power projects. In October 2025, the first 40,000-ton deck transport vessel will be successfully launched at the company's shipbuilding base in Panjin, with plans to use its own transport vessels for overseas shipping tasks in 2026. Furthermore, the company has established operations in three ports in Europe: Denmark, Germany, and Spain, with its own vessels, shipping, and managed terminals enhancing its delivery capacity and profitability.

On March 12, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) ruled that active anode materials from China are sold in the U.S. at less than fair value and receive subsidies from the Chinese government, but the import of anodes has not significantly hindered the establishment of related industries in the U.S. Therefore, no anti-dumping or countervailing duties will be imposed on imports of this product from China; this ruling reversed the U.S. Department of Commerce's February proposal to impose anti-dumping duties of 93.5%-102.72% and countervailing duties of 66.82%-66.86% on imported anode materials from China This week, the giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) saw its Hong Kong stock surge by 20%, reaching a new high since its listing.

Next week, the focus will still be on the situation of the war and oil prices. The strategy remains the same as last week, balancing investments in technology assets and sectors benefiting from high oil prices.

After all, high oil prices are a double-edged sword; while they suppress some overvalued technology sectors, they also reactivate the investment value of "physical assets." The market is shifting from chasing "growth narratives" to embracing "hardware realities," with HALO assets characterized by heavy assets and low elimination rates (such as energy, resources, and utilities) undergoing a systematic revaluation.

For investors, under the expectation of a "war of attrition," it is particularly important to understand and adapt to this "return to reality" asset pricing logic.

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OWMxaOG1DTPX4TerZhzgEjq041WgB87oUz0EFQHxkkyasAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) What major events should we pay attention to next week?

**1\. GTC Conference: Jensen Huang's Three New Cards**

At 2 AM Beijing time on March 17, Jensen Huang's keynote speech will reveal three cards: first, the Feynman chip architecture roadmap, based on TSMC's 1.6nm process, representing NVIDIA's sprint at the limits of chip technology; second, the Rubin Ultra high-power GPU, with computing power approximately 3.3 times that of the current GB300, capable of reducing the training time for trillion-parameter models from 3 months to 2 weeks; third, the first quantum switch CPO solution will be implemented, achieving double bandwidth and a 30%-50% reduction in power consumption, with 2026 designated as the "commercial year of silicon photonics."

Historical data shows that NVIDIA's stock price has an 80% probability of rising during the GTC conference, and the linkage effect on the A-share computing chain is usually most evident within 3 trading days before and after the conference.

**2\. Private Credit: Risks More Concealed than in 2008**

The total scale of the private credit market is about $2 trillion, with corporate loans provided by private funds rather than banks. Due to the lack of public market pricing, risks are extremely difficult to identify in a timely manner. Currently, three triggers are igniting: first, asset quality deterioration, with high oil prices raising costs and sustained high interest rates leading to a systematic decline in the debt repayment ability of small and medium-sized enterprises; second, concentrated exposure of fraud risks, with several companies recently revealing cases of the same batch of assets being pledged multiple times and inflated in value; third, the accelerating impact of AI, which severely hits the software service sector, and these companies are the core borrowing group in private credit.

1.  The progress of China-U.S. economic and trade consultations is also worth paying attention to.

Impact on Chinese assets: For A-shares, if the GTC conference exceeds expectations, the computing chain will experience emotional catalysis; however, if the private credit crisis in the U.S. escalates and triggers a correction in U.S. stocks, A-shares will find it difficult to remain unaffected. Regarding the RMB exchange rate, if the GTC drives U.S. tech stocks up, the dollar may be strong in the short term; but if the crisis triggers risk aversion, gold and U.S. Treasuries may strengthen instead.

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/GTEb9jqFtwcIK-mAi68CES8E6COR4jwAuw_Vpq8SFL72QAA/0?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

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