--- title: "EMEA Morning Briefing: Markets Brace for Further Iran Fallout" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/279207067.md" description: "European stock futures rise as U.S. futures recover from early declines, influenced by reports of a coalition to escort tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions in Iran. The oil market faces disruption risks, with potential impacts on financial conditions and equities. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady interest rates, with the dollar's strength linked to the Middle East crisis. Oil futures rise due to supply concerns, while gold prices fall as inflation worries grow. The FOMC meeting will be closely watched for reactions to rising energy prices." datetime: "2026-03-16T05:30:28.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279207067.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279207067.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279207067.md) --- # EMEA Morning Briefing: Markets Brace for Further Iran Fallout MARKET WRAPS Watch For: No major economic updates expected; trading updates for Standard Life, MTN Group Opening Call: European stock futures were higher after Asia stocks were mixed. U.S. Treasurys edged higher, the dollar weakened. Gold fell and oil rose. Equities: European futures were higher as U.S. futures bounced back from early declines. The turnaround may have been influenced by a Wall Street Journal report late Sunday that the Trump administration is poised to announce that multiple countries have agreed to help escort tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz, though it was unclear if that might happen before or after the end of hostilities. Trump later told reporters he has "demanded" that about seven countries send warships to maintain the flow of oil, asserting that since they are dependent on Persian Gulf oil, "these countries come in and protect their own territory, because it is their own territory." "The oil market is now flirting with the outer edge of disruption risk," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said. "Every uptick in oil tightens financial conditions. Every tightening of conditions feeds back into equities. The market stops behaving like a calm pricing mechanism and starts behaving like a stress test." Forex: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady as the Iran war forces it to maintain a cautious approach but that probably won't have much dollar impact, said strategists in Unicredit's The Investment Institute. The dollar is almost completely driven by the Middle East crisis, they said in a note. The conflict should keep the dollar firm due to its safe-haven role, with the currency showing a positive correlation to U.S. stock volatility. Factors behind the dollar's past weakness, including uncertainty over the U.S. economy, Fed policy and tariffs, are being overshadowed by war, they added. Bonds: Treasury yields edged higher as traders remained worried that the conflict in the Middle East will push up energy prices and perhaps trigger broader inflation. Traders revised lower their bets that the Fed will resume cutting interest rates this year. Roughly since the start of the Iran war, the two-year yield, sensitive to expectations for Fed policy action, has marked its largest two-week rise since fall 2024. Energy: Oil futures were higher in early trade on supply disruption concerns. President Trump announced Friday that the U.S. had bombed military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, home to Iran's main terminal for exporting oil. Trump threatened to strike Iran's oil infrastructure sites next if Tehran doesn't allow tankers to transit freely through the Strait of Hormuz. "The more alarming reality is that the worst is likely yet to come," Rystad Energy said in an email. Rystad Energy's analysis indicates that, in a worst-case scenario, Middle East crude production could fall to around six million barrels per day, a regionwide reduction of 70% from pre-conflict baseline. Metals: Gold fell in early trade as rising energy prices spurred by the Middle East conflict exacerbate inflation worries. "This has resulted in a rise in U.S. Treasury yields to multiweek highs, weighing on nonyielding assets such as gold," said Exness' Eric Chia in an email. Also, "risks of persistent high energy prices could limit the Fed's ability to shift toward a more accommodative stance, keeping gold sensitive to geopolitical developments," the financial markets strategist added. The FOMC will hold a two-day meeting starting Tuesday, where investors are likely to closely monitor how policymakers react to the recent jump in energy prices. \- Iron ore is lower as the black metal's price has been strong, and investors may take profit at elevated levels, Nanhua Futures analysts said in a research note. They point out that inventories at ports remain high. Although supply has declined slightly due to weather, it remains within a normal range, they said. TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES White House Tries to Build Coalition on Iran to Address Energy Crisis WASHINGTON-President Trump and top aides spent the weekend framing their Iran operation as a resounding military success while imploring other countries to join their effort to resolve a worsening energy crisis related to the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration as soon as this week plans to announce that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the waterway, which runs along the Iranian coast, U.S. officials said. The U.S. and potential coalition countries are still discussing whether those operations would begin before or after the war ends. Oil Industry Warns Trump Administration That Fuel Crunch Will Likely Worsen American oil executives delivered a bleak message to Trump officials in recent days: The energy crisis the Iran war has unleashed is likely to get worse. In a series of White House meetings Wednesday and recent conversations with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the CEOs of Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips warned that the disruption to energy flows out of the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway would continue to create volatility in global energy markets, according to people familiar with the matter. Iran War Hits Europe With an Energy Shock It Can't Afford to Absorb An energy shock from the war in the Middle East is set to deliver a punishing blow to Europe's economy, in a bitter twist for a region that had been hoping to accelerate growth this year after a long stretch of stagnation that angered voters across the continent. Policymakers are scrambling to provide relief, but their options are more limited than during Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago. Government debt and borrowing costs were lower then, and European households and businesses had money from pandemic stimulus programs. Airline Executives Urge Congress to End Partial Government Shutdown Top executives of major carriers, including Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines, are urging Congress to restore funding to the Department of Homeland Security and pass bills guaranteeing that air-traffic controllers and airport security officers get paid during government shutdowns. "Once again, air travel is the political football amid another government shutdown," the executives wrote in an open letter to Congress published Sunday online and in the Washington Post. OpenAI's Bid to Allow X-rated Talk Is Freaking Out Its Own Advisers In January, OpenAI's handpicked council of advisers on well-being and AI met with the company's representatives for an update about a controversial new feature called "adult mode." Citing the need to "treat adult users like adults," OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman had last year floated the idea of enabling erotic conversation in its ChatGPT chatbot and dropping its ban on such X-rated content. Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com Expected Major Events for Monday 00:01/UK: Mar Rightmove House Price Index 05:30/NED: Jan International trade 06:00/FIN: Jan Balance of Payments 07:00/ROM: 4Q Employment and unemployment 07:00/NOR: Feb External trade in goods 08:00/CZE: Feb PPI 08:00/CZE: Jan Import & export price indices 09:00/CZE: 4Q Quarterly Balance of Payments 09:00/BUL: Feb CPI 09:00/CZE: Jan Monthly Balance of Payments 09:30/UK: S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index 09:30/UK: Annual CPI Basket of Goods and Services annual review 11:00/FRA: 4Q OECD Quarterly National Accounts G20 GDP growth 13:00/POL: Jan Balance of Payments 16:59/SWI: 3Q Locational & Consolidated banking statistics 16:59/SWI: 4Q International debt securities statistics 16:59/SWI: 4Q Exchange-traded derivatives statistics 16:59/SWI: 3Q Domestic debt securities statistics All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones. Write to us at newsletters@dowjones.com We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions. This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today. 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