---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three major index futures mixed, oil prices rise over 3%, Morgan Stanley steadfastly adheres to the Federal Reserve's June rate cut script"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/279429720.md"
description: "U.S. stock index futures are mixed, with oil prices rising over 3%. Morgan Stanley maintains its prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June, despite the surge in oil prices leading to a weakening of market expectations for the extent of the rate cut. Analysts point out that the rise in oil prices may be temporary and is unlikely to lead to a significant crash in the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 is less than 5% away from its all-time high"
datetime: "2026-03-17T12:19:21.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279429720.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279429720.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279429720.md)
---

# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three major index futures mixed, oil prices rise over 3%, Morgan Stanley steadfastly adheres to the Federal Reserve's June rate cut script

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  As of March 17 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results before the market opened. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 0.04%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.06%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.17%.

![11.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260317/1773749498930606.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was up 0.32%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.78%, the French CAC 40 index was up 0.66%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 0.43%.

![12.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260317/1773749505894707.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 3.63%, priced at $95.82 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 3.00%, priced at $103.22 per barrel.

![13.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260317/1773749510409755.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**As oil prices soar, reshaping the rate cut path, Morgan Stanley remains steadfast in its June rate cut script for the Federal Reserve.** Despite the surge in oil prices triggered by the situation in the Middle East prompting traders to significantly reduce their expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts this year, Morgan Stanley still maintains its forecast—that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in June and announce another cut in September. In contrast, the "CME FedWatch Tool" shows that traders generally predict only one rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, with the timing of the cut significantly pushed back to September instead of the previously anticipated first half of the year. In its latest research report, Morgan Stanley stated that if oil prices remain between $125 and $150 per barrel for an extended period, it will significantly drag down consumer spending and require support from the Federal Reserve. The bank's global chief economist, Seth Carpenter, noted that inflation driven by rising oil prices is likely to be temporary, stating, "If the situation worsens to the point of impacting economic growth, this will actually further lower the potential inflation trend over time, especially core inflation."

**Even if oil prices exceed $100, a crash is unlikely? Wall Street strategists say the probability of a bear market in U.S. stocks is very low.** CFRA Research's chief investment strategist, Stovall, stated that despite the skyrocketing oil prices due to the Middle Eastern conflict, the turmoil in the energy market is unlikely to lead to a significant crash in the U.S. stock market. The stock market has faced sell-offs due to increasing concerns about rising inflation, slowing economic growth, and the potential evolution into "stagflation." Nevertheless, the S&P 500 index is currently less than 5% away from its historical high of 7002 points set at the end of January. If the index falls below the 5% threshold this week, it will have been over 47 days since it set a new high, which is inconsistent with historical trends. Stovall indicated that while investors should not rule out the risk of a larger decline in the index, the fact that it has taken so long to undergo a preliminary pullback sends a clear signal: the market is "very likely" to experience some degree of correction But the probability of falling into a bear market is minimal.

**"AI disrupts everything" severely impacts software outlook! Morgan Stanley sounds the alarm on direct lending, private credit default rates may rise to 8%.** Morgan Stanley recently stated that as the rapid development of AI technology continues to disrupt the global software industry's profit growth outlook, the default rate in the direct lending sector will quickly rise to 8%. The Morgan Stanley market analyst team, including Joyce Jiang, indicated in a report that although artificial intelligence has not yet impacted the fundamentals of private credit in a "substantive and precise way," the high leverage in the software industry and the looming maturity wall may significantly push the direct lending default rate close to levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. Direct lending itself is the most core and prevalent sub-sector within private credit.

**The dollar reclaims the "safe-haven throne," but this rebound may be short-lived!** The dollar has gained some breathing room in recent weeks, strengthening against all major currencies and regaining its status as a safe-haven asset during times of market stress. Currently, the dollar index is near a 10-month high. While other traditional safe-haven currencies (like the yen) have performed poorly, the dollar has shown defensive characteristics. However, analysts warn that this situation may be difficult to sustain. AJ Bell's investment director, Mould, stated, "The fundamental issues that led to the dollar's weakness before the Middle East conflict have not disappeared. These issues include the elusive U.S. government strategy, massive fiscal deficits, and political pressure on central bank independence." HSBC analysts also noted that there are still reasons not to be fully optimistic about a strong dollar, especially since the drivers that propelled the dollar's rebound in 2022 are no longer present.

**The next few weeks will determine life or death! Moody's: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, a U.S. recession is unavoidable.** Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi stated that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to tanker transport, the U.S. economic outlook will continue to deteriorate, despite the fact that U.S. oil and gas production is roughly in line with consumption. Zandi believes that if the situation does not change in the coming weeks, a U.S. recession will become unavoidable. Even before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, Moody's machine learning-based leading indicators had shown a 49% probability of the U.S. entering a recession within the next 12 months. Zandi expects that the next data release from this model will show a recession probability reaching or exceeding 50%. Weak employment data is the main reason for the deteriorating U.S. economic outlook, but Zandi pointed out that many other economic indicators have also declined in recent months.

**Reaching a three-year high! U.S. diesel prices return to the $5 era, facing severe inflation pressure on the "economic lifeline."** Due to the ongoing disruption of supply from the Iran war, U.S. diesel prices have surpassed $5 per gallon for the first time since December 2022, putting further pressure on many regions in the U.S. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average retail price of gasoline reached $5.044 per gallon on Monday, significantly rising since the outbreak of the conflict. Diesel is the lifeblood of U.S. freight, agriculture, and construction, and any increase in retail prices will have a ripple effect on the overall economy. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the price of home heating oil, which is largely interchangeable with diesel, has also risen above $5 per gallon For Trump, the continued rise in fuel prices may affect the outlook for the midterm elections later this year.

## Individual Stock News

**Not just GPUs! NVIDIA (NVDA.US) launches LPU and CPU products at GTC 2026, fully laying out every aspect of AI data centers.** NVIDIA officially kicked off the GTC conference in San Jose, California, unveiling multiple new chips and platforms, from the next-generation Groq 3 language processing unit (LPU) to the Vera central processing unit (CPU) cabinet designed to compete with Intel and AMD. It is reported that NVIDIA launched a total of five large server cabinets, each targeting different scenario needs within AI data centers. Jensen Huang expects that NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip architecture Blackwell and the next-generation Rubin products will generate at least $1 trillion in revenue by the end of 2027. This figure far exceeds Huang's $500 billion sales forecast given in October 2025, further highlighting that the wave of investment in AI infrastructure is still rapidly expanding.

**AMD (AMD.US) steps into the rack-level AI infrastructure era! Strong partnership with Tianhong Technology (CLS.US) to build the Helios computing cluster.** AMD announced a deep cooperation with Tianhong Technology, aiming to launch the AMD Helios rack-level AI computing infrastructure platform to compete with NVIDIA's NVL72 rack-level AI platform in the global AI data center market. The two companies stated in a press release that when this AI computing platform is launched, Tianhong Technology will be responsible for the research, design, and manufacturing of high-performance network switches for vertical large-scale expansion within the AMD Helios rack-level AI computing cluster architecture. Helios is crucial for AMD's revenue and profit outlook, as AMD gradually shifts its competitive focus to cabinet-level systems similar to NVIDIA's NVL72, with the large-scale launch of the Helios AI computing cluster by the end of 2026 essentially confronting NVIDIA's "rack-level AI infrastructure" head-on.

**Kraft Heinz (KHC.US) seeks growth through new avenues after halting spin-off: launching a series of healthier products to boost underperforming brands.** Kraft Heinz is officially launching a series of healthier products to boost some of its underperforming brands; this is the first phase of measures taken after the company paused its spin-off plans to revive growth. CEO Steve Cahillane stated that the launch of these new products is part of the company's strategy to revitalize growth for three previously underperforming brands that have shown improvement after recent investments. He stated that the company aims to provide "evidence" to customers and investors that Kraft Heinz can turn around its business by replicating similar initiatives across other brands. The newly launched food products will test whether Cahillane's bet is correct, that investing in Kraft Heinz's product development and vigorously promoting higher-protein, healthier foods can help revive sales.

**Huya (HUYA.US) Q4 revenue increased by 16.2% year-on-year, turning from profit to a loss of 8.4 million yuan.** The financial report shows that Huya's total revenue in Q4 was 1.7385 billion yuan (approximately $248.6 million), a year-on-year increase of 16.2% Among them, game-related services, advertising, and other revenues amounted to 592.5 million RMB (approximately 84.7 million USD), a year-on-year increase of 59.4%. Under Non-GAAP accounting standards, the net loss attributable to the company was 8.4 million RMB (approximately 1.2 million USD), compared to a net profit of 1.2 million RMB in the same period last year. As of the time of publication, Huya's stock fell over 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

**Tencent Music (TME.US) released its annual performance, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.06 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 66.4%.** Tencent Music announced its fourth-quarter results for the three months ending December 31, 2025, with total revenue of 8.64 billion RMB (same unit), a year-on-year increase of 15.9%; online music service revenue of 7.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%; net profit attributable to equity holders of the company of 2.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; diluted earnings per American Depositary Share of 1.41 RMB. For the fiscal year 2025, the group achieved total revenue of 32.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; online music service revenue of 26.73 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%; net profit attributable to equity holders of the company of 11.06 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 66.4%; it plans to distribute an annual cash dividend for the fiscal year 2025, totaling approximately 368 million USD.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. February seasonally adjusted existing home sales index month-on-month

## Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: ZTO Express (ZTO.US)

Wednesday pre-market: Huazhu (HTHT.US), Macy's (M.US), Weibo (WB.US), Yuanbao (YB.US), Youke Lian (UCL.US)

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