--- title: "Tencent Holdings Q4 2025 performance outlook: Revenue and profit may see double-digit growth; market focuses on the latest AI strategy, AI budget, and capital expenditures" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/279518805.md" description: "Tencent Holdings will announce its Q4 2025 results on March 18, expecting double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit. According to forecasts from 8 brokerages, net profit is estimated to be between RMB 50.863 billion and RMB 58.917 billion, with a year-on-year change of -0.9% to 14.8%; revenue is expected to be between RMB 191.627 billion and RMB 197.739 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% to 14.7%. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley both predict that profit and revenue will grow year-on-year, and the company will share its latest artificial intelligence strategy" datetime: "2026-03-18T02:07:01.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279518805.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279518805.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279518805.md) --- # Tencent Holdings Q4 2025 performance outlook: Revenue and profit may see double-digit growth; market focuses on the latest AI strategy, AI budget, and capital expenditures According to Zhitong Finance APP, after the market close on March 18, Tencent Holdings (00700) will announce its performance for the fourth quarter of 2025. Driven by the stable performance of the evergreen game "Honor of Kings," the rising revenue from secondary games like "Delta Force," and growth in advertising revenue, a comprehensive forecast from eight brokerages indicates that **Tencent's net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 50.863 billion and RMB 58.917 billion, compared to RMB 51.324 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.9% to an increase of 14.8%, with a median of RMB 53.616 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. A comprehensive forecast from 14 brokerages suggests that Tencent's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 191.627 billion and RMB 197.739 billion, compared to RMB 172.446 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.1% to 14.7%, with a median of RMB 193.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.** ## Revenue and Profit May See Double-Digit Growth Specifically, Citigroup predicts that Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the fourth quarter of last year will increase by 17% year-on-year to RMB 64.7 billion, with a profit margin of 33.7%. Quarterly revenue is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year to RMB 191.9 billion. Among this, online game revenue is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to RMB 56.7 billion, with local and international game revenue increasing by 14% and 18% year-on-year to RMB 37.8 billion and RMB 18.8 billion, respectively. Online advertising revenue is expected to increase by 17% year-on-year to RMB 41 billion, while financial technology and enterprise service revenue is expected to increase by 7% year-on-year to RMB 59.8 billion. This includes RMB 14.2 billion in cloud business revenue and RMB 45.5 billion in financial technology revenue, which increased by 18% and 3% year-on-year, respectively. The bank noted that the company has recently restructured its artificial intelligence team and accelerated the model update process, expecting management to share the latest AI strategy during the earnings release and hoping to see upgrades in the AI WeChat ecosystem. Morgan Stanley predicts that Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the fourth quarter of last year will increase by 11% year-on-year to RMB 61.2 billion, with quarterly revenue expected to increase by 12% year-on-year to RMB 192.7 billion. Among this, value-added service revenue is expected to increase by 12% year-on-year, and online game revenue is expected to increase by 16.7% year-on-year, reflecting growth of 12.5% and 25.4% in domestic and international games, respectively, benefiting from an estimated total revenue growth of 17% in the first three quarters of last year based on deferred revenue, and considering the non-recurring income from copyright sales and acquisitions in the third quarter of last year. According to SensorTower data, "Delta Force" achieved a new revenue high in November last year, while the annualized revenue of the mobile game "Valorant" remained stable, offsetting declines in evergreen games such as "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Dungeon & Fighter." The bank predicts that quarterly advertising revenue will increase by 18.5% year-on-year, mainly driven by upgrades in AI advertising technology. Due to weakness in financial technology, it is expected that financial technology and enterprise service revenue will grow by 7.5% year-on-year. Business payments will drag down financial technology revenue. Despite GPU supply constraints, enterprise service revenue growth is still expected to accelerate to 17% If we estimate based on market expectations, Tencent's total revenue for the entire year of 2025 is expected to approach 750 billion yuan, with non-IFRS core profit around 260 billion yuan. Compared to the data for 2024, this indicates that Tencent maintains a robust double-digit growth on a large base, demonstrating strong growth sustainability. Recently, the market has expressed concerns about Tencent's development in artificial intelligence, but with Tencent announcing the formal integration of the QQ open platform into the OpenClaw AI agent platform, it has sparked a new wave of enthusiasm among Chinese internet users. This is expected to quickly educate its users on using AI agents, allowing it to accumulate user behavior data, which will aid in the development and evolution of systems and agent platforms within the future WeChat ecosystem. The market is paying attention to Tencent's latest AI strategy, AI budget and capital expenditures, whether AI mini-programs will connect e-commerce, transportation, and local life scenarios, as well as management's comments on macro outlook, regulatory environment, game product line planning, advertising market sentiment and load, and the latest performance of video accounts and WeChat AI search. JP Morgan believes that investors should focus on AI signals that can simultaneously influence market sentiment and fundamentals: this year's capital expenditure intensity and progress, GPU/AI chip procurement and supply visibility, specific progress and iteration frequency of foundational model quality (especially multimodal and reasoning capabilities), and empirical evidence of monetization driven by distribution through WeChat search, information flow, and mini-program workflows, as well as improvements in advertising technology efficiency, such as targeted delivery, creative automation, and return on investment, and the impact of expanding these plans on profit margins and operating costs. ## Major Banks Optimistic About Future Stock Prices In terms of target price, Citigroup stated that the Chinese government has announced a ban on installing OpenClaw AI applications on state-owned office computers. Globally, professional users have tended to run AI agents on standalone machines as a best security practice. Given the widespread popularity of smartphones in China and the limited ownership of personal computers, the bank believes some users may have attempted to install OpenClaw on office computers, prompting government action. Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Holdings, with a target price of HKD 783. The bank believes that Tencent's "WorkBuddy" allows AI agents to operate in its secure cloud environment, which is likely to be viewed as a safer solution in China, as it bypasses the risks of local machine installation. Specifically, Tencent's dominant communication platforms QQ and WeChat provide unique ecosystem advantages that allow users to seamlessly manage AI agents. This integrated approach leverages widely adopted communication applications, providing Tencent with a relatively strong positioning compared to its peers in the evolving AI agent landscape. The bank maintains a constructive view on Tencent's competitive position and its upcoming AI developments leveraging existing ecosystem advantages. CITIC Securities International pointed out that Tencent Holdings has recently actively integrated OpenClaw, with intensive actions in the AI agent field, including the official launch of the all-scenario AI agent WorkBuddy, the internal testing of the one-click deployment tool QClaw, and the personal WeChat also awaiting integration with OpenClaw to realize agent functions. The bank maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tencent, with a target price of HKD 766 CICC believes that the market has previously been concerned about Tencent's relatively conservative investment in AI, its large models being in a relatively lagging state, and the slow progress of AI application implementation. On the other hand, there are worries that if Tencent aggressively invests to catch up, it may put pressure on profits, leading to a pessimistic narrative that continues to suppress short-term valuations. Although Tencent's investment attitude in the AI field has been relatively stable within the industry since 2023, starting from the second half of 2025, the company has gradually formed a proactive catch-up stance through the introduction of top AI talent, actively optimizing its AI organizational structure, and adjusting resource allocation. It maintains an "outperform industry" rating and a target price of HKD 700. Looking ahead to 2026, the firm believes that Tencent is expected to enter a catch-up mode in the large model field, and its exploration at the application level is also expected to accelerate. The intensive rollout of products such as WorkBuddy and QClaw is a reflection of its proactive response speed. Meanwhile, the unique ecosystem of WeChat is expected to further unleash its advantages in Agent scenarios. If Tencent can deliver results better than market expectations, its narrative logic may experience a valuation reversal similar to Google's in 2025. Finally, it should be noted that AI innovation itself requires long-term investment and carries output uncertainty, but the firm believes that the market underestimates the importance of Tencent's solid foundational business in supporting long-term innovation ### Related Stocks - [KWEB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KWEB.US.md) - [TCTZF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TCTZF.US.md) - [TCEHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TCEHY.US.md) - [00700.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00700.HK.md) - [03033.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03033.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [AI adoption in Singapore hits 64%, only 18% reach advanced stage: HubSpot](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282779040.md) - [These Allbirds AI jokes are as fire as the company's stock price](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282954479.md) - [Beneficient Expands AI Fund Exposure Through Preferred Stock](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282340438.md) - [SPAC AI Strategy files for a $100 million IPO, targeting AI and digital technologies](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282887804.md) - [Core AI and Allianca Group Form Strategic Joint Venture | CHAI Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282685079.md)