--- title: "BlackRock Fund: If the Middle East conflict reaches a clear conclusion, risk asset prices are expected to recover within 6 to 12 months" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/279904791.md" description: "BlackRock Fund stated that if the Middle East conflict reaches a clear conclusion, risk asset prices are expected to recover within 6 to 12 months. The fund is optimistic about U.S. stocks and hard currency bonds in emerging markets that benefit from the AI theme, particularly commodity-exporting countries like Brazil. Analysis indicates that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz significantly impacts the global supply chain, especially in Northeast Asia, which may lead to increased market volatility. Although the situation may worsen in the short term, economic and political pressures could prompt a de-escalation" datetime: "2026-03-20T07:52:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279904791.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279904791.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279904791.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279904791.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279904791.md) # BlackRock Fund: If the Middle East conflict reaches a clear conclusion, risk asset prices are expected to recover within 6 to 12 months According to the Zhitong Finance APP, BlackRock stated that the key issue currently lies in the duration of the Middle East conflict and its chain effects on the supply chain. Although the situation may worsen in the short term, driven by economic and political pressures, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen within weeks. If a clear resolution to the conflict emerges, prices of risk assets are likely to recover within 6 to 12 months. There is still optimism for U.S. stocks benefiting from the AI theme, as well as for hard currency bonds in emerging markets, which mainly focus on commodity-exporting countries like Brazil. BlackRock believes that the energy price surge triggered by the conflict has significantly different impacts across regions, with the core differences between oil and liquefied natural gas making Northeast Asia particularly vulnerable. Oil can be rerouted through other shipping lanes, while the transportation of liquefied natural gas heavily relies on regional infrastructure, and Northeast Asia depends on imports from the Strait of Hormuz for both. BlackRock's analysis shows that, for example, Japan imports about 70%-90% of its oil and 10%-15% of its liquefied natural gas through this strait. Some Asian countries are stockpiling energy, which could lead to tighter supplies and potentially exacerbate market volatility. Europe also faces risks; if the strait is blocked for months, the supply shock it experiences could be twice that of the U.S. The U.S. imports only about 4%-8% of its oil through this strait, far lower than the approximately 20%-45% for major economies like France, Italy, and Germany. This difference has already been reflected in market performance, with European and Asian stock markets declining more than U.S. stocks. However, another side of this feedback loop is beginning to emerge: the economic and political pressures brought about by such chain reactions may prompt a de-escalation of the situation. Last Monday's market performance confirmed this. After U.S. President Trump stated that the war could "end soon," oil prices experienced the most extreme intraday volatility in history. As attacks by Iran on energy shipping and facilities intensified, Brent crude prices rose again to around $100. Although Iran has gained leverage by restricting shipping, this will also impact its economy and could motivate Iran to end the conflict. Growing domestic dissatisfaction in the U.S. over high natural gas prices may also become a factor driving the situation toward de-escalation. BlackRock expects that if current oil prices persist for six months, it will significantly drag down global economic growth and raise inflation levels. BlackRock stated that almost no asset can completely avoid the recent supply shock. While the stock market has declined, government bonds and gold have not served as ballast. This is because, in the context of persistent inflation and high debt, investors demand more compensation for the risks associated with holding long-term bonds. 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