--- title: "UBS lowers Q1 delivery expectations, but Tesla's stock price may not show a \"selling cars\" demeanor" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/279911644.md" description: "UBS has lowered its delivery forecast for Tesla in the first quarter of 2026 to 345,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. This forecast is below Bloomberg's expectation of 371,000 units but aligns with the expectations of buy-side institutions. Although the impact of delivery volumes on stock prices has weakened, investors are more focused on the development of autonomous driving and artificial intelligence businesses. Tesla is expected to announce delivery data on April 2, and market sentiment remains the main driver of stock prices" datetime: "2026-03-20T08:46:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279911644.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279911644.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279911644.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279911644.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279911644.md) # UBS lowers Q1 delivery expectations, but Tesla's stock price may not show a "selling cars" demeanor According to Zhitong Finance APP, UBS recently released a research report on Tesla (TSLA.US), predicting that Tesla's delivery volume in the first quarter of 2026 will be 345,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. This figure is a downward adjustment from the bank's initial forecast of 360,000 units for the first quarter of 2026 and is 7% lower than Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 371,000 units (the company's aggregated market consensus data is not yet available and is expected to be released next week). However, the bank believes that this forecast aligns more closely with the expectations of buy-side institutions, which range from 330,000 to 350,000 units. Currently, the actual delivery data may be slightly lower than the bank's forecast, but the possibility of a delivery surge at the end of the quarter cannot be ruled out. The bank also predicts that the company's energy storage deployment in the first quarter will be 15.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%. Tesla is expected to announce its first-quarter delivery data for 2026 on April 2. Does delivery volume still impact the company's stock price? Perhaps not as much as before. Investor discussions about Tesla's traditional automotive business and fundamentals have significantly decreased. In the bank's view, the company's stock price is now dominated by narratives and future potential related to autonomous driving taxis, Optimus humanoid robots, and other artificial intelligence businesses. Recently, market attention has also increased regarding the Gigafactory and solar business. Therefore, the progress and latest developments of these new businesses are more critical to the stock price. Recent investor feedback indicates that updates on autonomous driving taxis and Optimus are progressing slower than expected, and related information disclosures have been relatively bland. After NVIDIA released the Alpama autonomous driving platform and companies like Waymo accelerated their autonomous driving business layout, the market increasingly believes that Tesla is struggling to establish a sustainable competitive advantage in the autonomous driving taxi sector. Although the bank believes that market sentiment will remain the core driver of the company's stock price (its impact far exceeds that of vehicle delivery volumes), Tesla's cash flow is still primarily supported by its traditional automotive business, and this cash flow is the source of funding for the company's growth investments, with Tesla's capital expenditure reaching $20 billion this year. The bank's adjustment to the forecast for the first quarter of 2026 delivery volume is mainly based on the following factors: The demand for electric vehicles in the U.S. is weakening, and production of the Model S and Model X is gradually decreasing (however, the bank expects that these two models will still maintain deliveries in the coming quarters). According to estimates from automotive data companies, Tesla's delivery volume for January and February was 78,600 units, a 6% decrease compared to the delivery levels in the first two months of the first quarter of 2025 and a 2% decrease compared to the first two months of the fourth quarter of 2025. Currently, Tesla has launched a 72-month 0% interest loan plan for the Model Y, offers a 30-day trial service of autonomous driving (supervised mode) for all new Tesla models, and as of March 31, owners can transfer their existing vehicle's autonomous driving (supervised mode) rights to newly purchased Tesla vehicles. In addition, Tesla's new Model 3 has introduced a leasing plan with a monthly rent of $399 and a down payment of $3,000. European market: In the first two months of this quarter, the delivery volume in the top eight European markets decreased by about 4% year-on-year, but the bank believes that overall demand is basically stable, and market performance in other European countries may have some uplift. So far this quarter, the German market's delivery volume has increased by 32% year-on-year, France by 24%, while the UK has seen a year-on-year drop of 41% and the Netherlands a staggering 56% decline In addition, the delivery base in the European market for the first quarter of 2025 is already low, and deliveries in the European market are typically concentrated in the third month of the quarter. The delivery performance of major European countries in the first two months of this quarter is as follows: Germany: up 32% year-on-year, up 42% month-on-month France: up 24% year-on-year, up 30% month-on-month United Kingdom: down 41% year-on-year, down 27% month-on-month Netherlands: down 56% year-on-year, down 63% month-on-month Belgium: down 8% year-on-year, up 36% month-on-month Spain: up 73% year-on-year, up 5% month-on-month Italy: up 20% year-on-year, down 2% month-on-month Norway: down 19% year-on-year, plummeting 81% month-on-month Chinese market: Affected by the timing of the Spring Festival, the base in the same period of 2025 is relatively low. In the first two months of this quarter, Tesla's wholesale volume increased by 36% year-on-year, but decreased by 14% month-on-month. Wholesale volume better reflects production conditions as it includes export data. So far this quarter, Tesla's export volume has surged by 112% year-on-year and increased by 45% month-on-month. This data also provides a basis for the company's delivery forecasts in other regions. Excluding exports, the domestic retail delivery volume in China decreased by 6% year-on-year and plummeted by 42% month-on-month in the first two months of this quarter. Tesla has extended the validity period of its 7-year ultra-low interest rate and 5-year interest-free financing plan to March 31, 2026. The company believes that, apart from the three core markets of the U.S., Europe, and China, Tesla's delivery volume in other regions will achieve growth ### Related Stocks - [GraniteShares 1.25x Long Tsla Daily ETF (TSL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [Tesla, Inc. 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