--- title: "The first round of adjustments in 2026 is stronger than expected — Minimalist Investment Research" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280013003.md" description: "The first round of adjustments in 2026 was stronger than expected, and the A-shares faced negative feedback during the traditional adjustment periods in February and March-April. The article analyzes the performance of the SSE Index over the past 20 years, pointing out that February is a month of gains, while March-April is a month of adjustments, influenced by policy expectations and the annual report window. Historical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have impacted the market. Despite the risks faced by the market, it is expected to bottom out in April, and the current adjustment is not new" datetime: "2026-03-21T06:58:14.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280013003.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280013003.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280013003.md) --- # The first round of adjustments in 2026 is stronger than expected — Minimalist Investment Research February is traditionally the "red plate month," while March-April is the traditional "risk month." The adjustment script always contains "new things," but there are no new developments in the A-shares. Since the market has shown negative feedback, we can only find positive drivers ourselves. Today's article presents facts and data; I hope everyone will have expectations for the future after reading it. **No New Developments in A-shares** Data from the past 20 years of the SSE Index shows that February is traditionally a red plate month, mainly because funds are betting on policy expectations for the National Two Sessions. March-April is traditionally an adjustment month, for various reasons: the realization of policy expectations from the Two Sessions, the approaching annual report window, etc. Of course, there have also been several major events from overseas. The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022: On February 24, 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, and the SSE Index fell by 1.7% on that day, subsequently dropping as much as 17.77% over the next 41 trading days. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023: On March 8, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) reported a massive loss and declared bankruptcy on March 10, becoming the largest bank failure in the U.S. since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. The SSE Index fell by a maximum of 3.77% over 17 trading days. The China-U.S. tariff dispute in 2025: The SSE Index fell by a maximum of 11.58% over 15 trading days from March 17 to April 7. Wait, did we miss the adjustment in 2024? The "snowball" product knock-in event in 2024 saw the SSE Index drop by a maximum of 11.46% over 25 trading days, while the CSI 500 saw a maximum drop of 21.3%. Coupled with the decline at the beginning of 2024, which started from the adjustment in August 2023, market funds had no profit margins, and risks were greatly released, leading to a mid-term rally from February to May 2024. However, during the window period from March to April 2024, there was still a fluctuation over 24 trading days, and after hitting the bottom in April, the market continued to rise until late May. Therefore, the adjustments in March-April are not new; they are just different scripts performing the same long-short logic. This time, whether it is the situation in the Middle East or the failure of interest rate cut expectations, I believe it will not change the objective rule of hitting the bottom in April. Since the adjustment on March 3 of this year, the SSE Index has taken 14 trading days, with a maximum cumulative drop of 5.75%, and the gap at 3977 has been filled I also compiled the maximum drawdown from March to April 2017 to 2026, as shown in the figure below. Based on the adjustment magnitude of 2025, it may not have reached the bottom yet; if we consider the average adjustment magnitude, there is not much room for further adjustments. **Optimists Always Profit** Since the "9·24" market, I have repeatedly emphasized a phenomenon — the pricing power of A-shares lies internally rather than externally. Whether we measure it using the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's shareholding or the Central Huijin Investment's shareholding, we can draw the same conclusion — domestic capital has absolute pricing power over A-shares. In the same U.S.-China tariff dispute, A-shares fell for 11 months in 2018; by 2025, they only fell for 13 trading days. Additionally, this year marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the current adjustment provides a low-entry opportunity for those incrementally supported industries. I have said too much about this aspect and will not elaborate further. In summary, pessimists are always correct, while optimists always profit. ▲Image source: Screenshot from Guolian Minsheng Securities research report **How to Alleviate Worries** From a professional perspective, investing boils down to stock selection, timing, and position control, but from the perspective of ordinary investors, emotional management must also be added. Why do professional investors not pay much attention to emotional management? Because they convert the "unknown" into probabilities through data statistics and then implement it into positions through calculating odds (Kelly formula). Therefore, one way to alleviate emotions is to review past market performances on how they emerged from pessimism and to revisit one's past success stories. Moreover, A-shares represent a diverse ecosystem of competition, not just retail investors vs. institutional investors. If you continuously analyze investments using the latter's binary game approach, it is easy to fall into a "Cthulhu-like" anxiety. The so-called institutional investors are intangible and indescribable; the more you study them, the more confused your thinking becomes. Reorganize your investment system to be useful in the next market cycle. My investment framework is quite simple, let me share it. Index investment — smile curve: buy in segments during the downturn window and wait for the slow bull to reach new highs. Track investment - see if there is policy support. New energy, semiconductors, AI, robotics, low-altitude economy, etc., which one hasn't had sustained heat for two years, and how many waves can be made behind it? The commercial space sector proposed last year has now undergone many adjustments; will this track continue to adjust? Event investment - look for certainty driven by events. Focus only on time nodes and event-driven factors. For example, February is a traditional red plate month, so layout should begin in January. Major holiday anniversaries may even require starting to build positions six months in advance. Three strategies of a minimalist investment research system; focusing on just one can lead to a qualitative leap in your investment thinking. Investors interested in the minimalist investment system can follow the WeChat public account "DaoDaHao." Let's simplify the subsequent behavioral scenarios: Either vent your emotions and lament the difficulty of the market, but negative energy will accumulate until someone can't hold on and cuts losses at the bottom, leading to the market bottoming out; Or motivate yourself, stabilize your emotions. Since individual emotions are worthless in the face of the overall market, rely on yourself and encourage yourself. The market is cyclical; whether you break down or not, the cycles are objective facts. If this cycle wasn't traded well, just do well in the next cycle. It's just about identifying a main line's "thread" and trading along that "thread." That's all for today; wish everyone a pleasant weekend. 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