--- title: "Oil prices are about to be adjusted! They may return to the \"9 yuan era\"" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280034885.md" description: "According to the refined oil price adjustment schedule, the domestic retail price limit for refined oil will undergo a new round of adjustments on March 23, with the price of 92-octane gasoline expected to return to the \"9 yuan era.\" The significant increase in international crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment of domestic refined oil retail prices by up to 2,200 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.73 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline. Analysts point out that this price adjustment will be the largest increase of the year, with private car owners needing to spend an additional 86.5 yuan to fill up 50 liters of 92-octane gasoline" datetime: "2026-03-22T00:56:10.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280034885.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280034885.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280034885.md) --- # Oil prices are about to be adjusted! They may return to the "9 yuan era" According to the refined oil price adjustment schedule, at 24:00 on March 23 (next Monday), the domestic retail price limit for refined oil will welcome a new round of adjustment. The latest forecast data on international crude oil price changes tracked by institutions indicates that the adjustment range for this round of refined oil retail price limit will far exceed the adjustment red line requirement of 50 yuan/ton, and it is highly likely that the retail price limit for refined oil will be raised. Based on calculations, the price of domestic 92-octane gasoline may fully enter the "9 yuan era." **Refined oil retail price limit may face an increase** Since the current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, which has led to an expanding positive range for the domestic reference crude oil price change rate. Meng Peng, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, stated that recently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has remained tense, and market concerns about reduced crude oil supply have intensified, pushing international crude oil prices to maintain a strong performance in a high range. As a result, during the current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil, the average international crude oil price has surged compared to the previous cycle, starting with a high positive value for the reference crude oil change rate, which has continued to rise overall. Zhuochuang Information's monitoring model shows that as of the close on March 19, which is the 9th working day of the current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil, the reference crude oil change rate was 45.21%. If calculated based on this, the corresponding increase in domestic refined oil retail prices would be approximately 2000 yuan/ton. Meng Peng indicated that there is only 1 working day left until the opening of the current price adjustment window, and the short-term crude oil change rate may continue to rise, with the final corresponding increase in domestic refined oil retail prices likely reaching around 2200 yuan/ton. If calculated this way, the price per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0# diesel would increase by 1.73 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.87 yuan, respectively. If the retail price limit for refined oil is implemented at this level, the price of domestic 92-octane gasoline will fully enter the "9 yuan era." At that time, private car owners will need to spend an additional 86.5 yuan to fill a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline. Liu Ting, an analyst at Longzhong Information, also stated that the increase in the domestic refined oil retail price limit for this round is no longer in doubt. According to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the corresponding increase for this round of refined oil is approximately 2000 yuan/ton. If implemented at this level, it means that this round of refined oil price adjustment will welcome a "five consecutive increases," while also refreshing the largest increase in price adjustments this year. Since 2026, the domestic refined oil retail price limit has undergone five rounds of adjustment windows, with "four increases and one pause," resulting in an increase of 1160 yuan and 1120 yuan per ton for domestic gasoline and diesel prices, respectively, compared to the end of 2025. **Wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel have risen significantly** Since the current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil, the wholesale prices in the refined oil market have risen sharply. Data monitored by Longzhong shows that as of March 19, the average market price for domestic 92-octane gasoline was 9479 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.8% compared to the previous pricing cycle; the average market price for diesel was 7977 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.9% compared to the previous pricing cycle Liu Ting stated that the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East geopolitical situation have hindered navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a supply gap in the international crude oil market, with international crude oil prices continuing to rise, and Brent crude futures prices surpassing $100 per barrel. Additionally, concerns about domestic crude oil supply shortages persist, making the assurance of domestic retail supply a sales focus for large state-owned enterprises, with significant increases in wholesale prices of refined oil. Looking ahead to the future of crude oil prices, Meng Peng indicated that in the short term, under the influence of geopolitical factors, international crude oil prices are likely to remain at high levels. Liu Ting also mentioned that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is still hindered, and concerns about supply risks in the crude oil market continue, with international crude oil prices likely to maintain high levels in the short term ### Related Stocks - [159199.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159199.CN.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [159181.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159181.CN.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [603353.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603353.CN.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OXY.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Oil futures lose ground in early US trading](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287089289.md) - [Asia Naphtha/Gasoline-Naphtha prices fall in tandem with Brent](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287056749.md) - [Europe Gasoline/Naphtha-Gasoline refining margins edge higher](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286950210.md) - [Capital Economics sees oil at $150 per barrel through 2027 in an extreme case](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286549728.md) - [Oil rises more than 1% after drone attack on UAE nuclear power plant](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286683769.md)