---
title: "Trump's statement ignites expectations! The market bets that the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran being reached in the short term is slightly above 50%"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280190515.md"
description: "With the changes in the Middle East situation, market expectations for a ceasefire in the Iran conflict have risen, with the likelihood of reaching a ceasefire agreement slightly above 50%. According to Polymarket data, the probability of achieving a ceasefire by April 30 has risen to about 51%. Trump stated that the U.S. is expected to reach an agreement with Iran \"within five days or even sooner,\" boosting market risk appetite and driving U.S. stocks higher. Although Iran denies negotiations, the market still holds expectations for a short-term easing of tensions. In the long term, the market is more confident about achieving a ceasefire within the year"
datetime: "2026-03-23T15:56:23.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280190515.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280190515.md)
---

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# Trump's statement ignites expectations! The market bets that the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran being reached in the short term is slightly above 50%

With new signs of change in the Middle East situation, market expectations for a ceasefire in the Iran conflict have significantly increased. The latest data shows that the market has begun to bet that the likelihood of reaching a ceasefire agreement in the short term is slightly above 50%.

According to data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, as of the time of writing, the probability of contracts targeting "a ceasefire before April 30" has risen to about 51%, marking the first time it has exceeded 50% in recent times. Previously, this contract had been hovering in the 30% to 40% range since mid-March.

This rapid rise in expectations has been primarily driven by the latest statements from U.S. President Trump. Trump previously stated that the U.S. is expected to reach an agreement with Iran "within five days or even sooner." This remark temporarily boosted market risk appetite, driving U.S. stocks higher, while also leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in international oil prices.

However, market sentiment later experienced fluctuations. Iran denied any negotiations with the U.S., but Trump countered that the two sides "had a dialogue last night." Amidst the conflicting messages, while the probability of a ceasefire has retreated from its intraday high, it remains above 50%, indicating that the market still holds some expectations for a short-term easing of tensions.

According to Polymarket's rules, a "ceasefire" must be formally announced and mutually agreed upon by both the U.S. and Iran to stop direct military conflict. Informal communications, behind-the-scenes negotiations, or unilateral pauses in military actions are not considered as reaching a ceasefire agreement.

From a longer-term perspective, the market is more confident about achieving a ceasefire within the year. Data shows that traders expect: a probability of about 76% for a ceasefire by December 31, 2025; 66% by June 30; 61% by May 31; about 52% by April 30; while the probability of reaching an agreement by March 31 is only 22%.

Analysts point out that the current fluctuations in the prediction market reflect investors' high sensitivity to geopolitical prospects. Trump's statements have a significant short-term impact on market expectations, but the actual ceasefire process still depends on the progress of negotiations between the two sides and the evolution of the conflict

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