Trump Eases Threats Against Iran; Crude Oil Once Plunged Over 14%, Industrial Metals Rebound

The U.S.-Iran conflict entered its fourth week, with Trump announcing a pause in threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure and claiming progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, triggering sharp fluctuations in global markets.

According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump said on the 23rd that he had ordered a five-day suspension of all military strikes on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure, provided that ongoing meetings and discussions are successful.

This statement quickly reversed the bullish crude oil positions that had been pushed higher overnight due to strike threats. Brent crude fell by more than 14% intraday, eventually closing below $100. Later, CCTV reported that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on social media, denying any dialogue with the United States.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures eventually closed down 9.7% on the day, and Brent crude prices closed below $100 for the first time in nearly two weeks.

(West Texas Intermediate crude futures rebounded after plunging)

Meanwhile, London Copper Prices jumped by the largest margin in nearly two months, and risk appetite has recovered somewhat. Industrial metals are seen as a barometer of the global economy, having been previously weighed down as the Middle East conflict dampened risk appetite in financial markets and exacerbated concerns about global inflation and growth.

(Silver and copper with industrial attributes closed higher yesterday)

Trump's "TACO": The Usual Script Plays Out Again

This diplomatic pivot continues Trump's consistent negotiation strategy.

Last Friday, Trump signaled that "the war will end sooner than expected" and followed up on Saturday with a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

By Monday morning, Wallstreetcn mentioned that Trump told the media the U.S. had engaged in dialogue with the Iranian leadership, saying:

"We are talking to someone we believe is a most respected 'leader.'"

When asked by reporters if the Iranian participant in the talks was the Supreme Leader, Trump said, "No." Trump added:

"Once a deal is reached, oil prices will fall like a stone; his goal is to have as much oil in the market as possible."

Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets at Scotiabank, stated bluntly in a research report:

"You can judge for yourself whether progress has truly been made in negotiations, or if Trump chose to back down in the face of the market and Iran's response."

He also pointed out that this round of market volatility was amplified by positional adjustments and has limited actual signal content.

Goldman Sachs' Rich Privorotsky also summarized the consistency between Trump's behavior over the past 72 hours and his historical playbook: creating bargaining space through extreme pressure and then providing an "off-ramp" in exchange for results that can be promoted domestically.

Before Trump's post on Monday, major Wall Street investment banks had already been raising their oil price forecasts. Goldman Sachs now expects the average crude oil price this year to be $85 per barrel, up from its previous forecast of $77.

Analysts pointed out that if a de-escalation is achieved, some Middle Eastern production is expected to gradually recover, but whether this materializes largely depends on when shipowners are willing to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Multi-pronged Approach, Risk Appetite Rebounds

For weeks, U.S. officials have continued to use verbal intervention to cool the energy markets.

Wallstreetcn mentioned that the U.S. Energy Secretary said a release of the strategic petroleum reserve is possible, though the probability is low.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated at CERAWeek that the U.S. has initiated a release of 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which could be expanded to 3 million barrels per day if necessary. Wright said the oil price increase was not yet sufficient to trigger "meaningful demand destruction." Wright said:

"The market has its own logic; rising prices are a signal to all market participants capable of increasing production."

London Copper Prices jumped significantly intraday, eventually closing up nearly 2.5% at $12,221.

(London Copper Prices jumped significantly intraday)

Previously, copper prices had fallen to more than three-month lows as the Middle East war weighed on global risk appetite and heightened inflation and growth concerns.

(London Copper Prices once fell to near mid-December last year levels)

Data from research firm Mysteel Global showed that domestic refined copper inventories fell sharply over the past week, decreasing by 78,700 tons to 486,200 tons, marking the largest weekly decline of the year. Analysts believe that low prices stimulated demand to some extent.