--- title: "Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.: Expectations for easing have significantly retreated, and U.S. stocks are accelerating their decline" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280230952.md" description: "Soochow Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report indicating that the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the escalation of the US-Iran conflict have led to a rapid decline in US stocks. In the short term, expectations for easing have disappeared, and the market is no longer pricing in future interest rate cuts for the first time. The global macro policy has shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes, and without favorable geopolitical developments, US stocks may test lower support levels. This week, developed markets fell by 2.0%, with the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 dropping by 2.1%, 2.1%, and 1.9%, respectively" datetime: "2026-03-24T00:35:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280230952.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280230952.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280230952.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280230952.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280230952.md) # Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.: Expectations for easing have significantly retreated, and U.S. stocks are accelerating their decline According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Soochow Securities released a research report stating that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting has signaled a hawkish stance, combined with the further escalation of the US-Iran conflict, leading to a rapid decline in US stocks. In the short term, the bank believes that the Fed's decision marks the temporary end of the "era of easing." This week, the global central bank week has come to a close, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have basically disappeared. This is the first time since the Fed entered a loosening cycle after 2024 that the market is no longer pricing in rate cuts for the next few quarters. There has been a shift in global macro policy from "rate cut expectations" to "pricing in rate hikes." If there are no substantial geopolitical positives next week, US stocks may test lower support levels. ## The main points from Soochow Securities are as follows: **Market Review for This Week (March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026): Developed markets led the decline (-2.0%), emerging markets fell (-0.4%).** US Stocks: This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the decline, falling 2.1%, the NASDAQ fell 2.1%, and the S&P fell 1.9%. By sector, energy and financials rose, while materials and utilities led the decline. The proportion of S&P 500 constituents that rose was 32%, with a marginal increase, led by APA, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Delta Air Lines, and Western Digital. **The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting signaled a hawkish stance, combined with the further escalation of the US-Iran conflict, leading to a rapid decline in US stocks.** Specifically: **First, the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates but expressed a hawkish stance.** The Fed's March interest rate meeting maintained interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. The dot plot basically maintained the policy guidance from December last year, indicating one rate cut within the year, but more voters showed a hawkish tendency (especially Waller no longer opposed not cutting rates). **Regarding future economic outlook, it raised the forecasts for economic growth and inflation, while maintaining its judgment on the unemployment rate.** The focus of this meeting was on the press conference, where Powell maintained a cautious hawkish stance against the backdrop of rising oil prices. He stated that the impact of developments in the Middle East remains unclear, and it is still too early to make economic judgments based on this. **Regarding inflation**, he stated that it is not the stagflation of the 1970s, most long-term inflation expectations are stable, and the energy supply shock is one-off, with some oil price shocks reflected in core inflation. **Regarding interest rates**, he stated that there would be no rate cuts before progress is made on inflation, and the possibility of future rate hikes cannot be ruled out, although current rate hikes remain a low-probability event. **Second, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict.** Geopolitical conflicts have significantly escalated, with the scope of attacks spreading from military targets to Gulf energy infrastructure. Israel launched an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, causing damage to Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities and triggering a large-scale fire; Iran characterized this round of escalation as "war entering a new phase," declaring the oil facilities of the three Gulf countries as legitimate targets for attack, escalating the conflict to the core energy area. The Trump administration publicly distanced itself from Israel's unilateral actions; at the same time, the US is considering sending thousands more troops to the Middle East, including air and naval forces to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. In terms of energy supply, Saudi Arabia has redirected oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with daily export volumes restored to about 4.19 million barrels, and the detour emergency plan is showing initial effectiveness. Although the geopolitical conflict has cooled after escalating from energy attacks on Friday. For example, Trump requested Israel to "postpone" further strikes on Iranian gas fields, distancing itself from the attack on the South Pars gas field, and plans to release strategic oil reserves a second time to stabilize high energy prices, etc The conflict remains at a high intensity, and the attack on the Qatar Ras Laffan base is expected to significantly weaken LNG export capacity, with the existing energy security barriers in the Gulf region still under challenge. **Outlook: In the short term, the bank believes that the Federal Reserve's decision marks the temporary end of the "easing era."** This week, the global central bank week has concluded, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have largely disappeared. This is the first time since the Fed entered its easing cycle after 2024 that the market is no longer pricing in rate cuts for the coming quarters. **There has been a shift in global macro policy from "rate cut expectations" to "pricing in rate hikes."** Although expectations have significantly contracted, the Federal Reserve remains the only central bank among the G10 that still retains a "very weak" possibility of rate cuts in market pricing. In contrast, the rate hike expectations for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have significantly heated up. The core reason for the Fed's "coldness" is that the damage to Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities is expected to take 3-5 years to repair, and this prolonged rise in energy costs locks in the path for inflation to decline, causing the Fed to shift its focus from employment to inflation, making rate cuts more difficult. Additionally, after the large-scale liquidation on "Quadruple Witching Day" on Friday, the market will enter a policy vacuum period. **If there are no substantial geopolitical positives next week, U.S. stocks may test lower support levels.** **Key data and events to watch next week** In terms of fundamentals: 1) On March 24, Japan's February CPI year-on-year and the Eurozone's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 2) On March 26, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 21 (in ten thousand). In terms of earnings reports: 1) On March 25, reports from Kingsoft Cloud and Zhihu-W; 2) On March 26, report from Pony.ai. **Risk Warning**: The U.S. economy rapidly falling into recession, Federal Reserve policies exceeding expectations, global geopolitical risks exceeding expectations, fluctuations in Trump policies, historical experience not representing the future, and risks of statistical and measurement errors ### Related Stocks - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Avrg ETF Tr (DIA.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [ProShares Short S&P500 (SH.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SH.US.md) - [ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QLD.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF (MGV.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MGV.US.md) - [iShares Core S&P US Value ETF (IUSV.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IUSV.US.md) - [ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDS.US.md) - [ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/QID.US.md) - [iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [iShares US Broker-Dealers&Secs Exchs ETF (IAI.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAI.US.md) - [SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSO.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [ROI-Why $100 oil won't break the American consumer: McGeever](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280166425.md) - [What are iShares Core S&P 500 ETFs?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279499494.md) - [Here's the smartest way to invest in the S&P 500 in March](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279997438.md) - [U.S. stock index futures extend gains; S&P 500 e-mini futures up 2.7%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 2.6%, Dow futures up 2.7%](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280151266.md) - [LIVE MARKETS-Leveraged ETF flows signal tug-of-war between Nasdaq bulls and bears](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279437205.md)