--- title: "Morningstar: Maintains fair value forecast for Alibaba-W at HKD 251, expects rapid e-commerce profitability to advance by one year" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280239711.md" description: "Morningstar maintains the fair value estimate for Alibaba-W at HKD 251, expecting the fast e-commerce business to achieve positive cash flow in fiscal year 2028 and profitability in fiscal year 2029. The company believes the market underestimates the short-term profit pressures from AI and fast e-commerce investments and their potential growth space. Alibaba's goal is to achieve an average annual growth rate of over 40% in external revenue from cloud computing and AI businesses over the next five years. Despite last quarter's adjusted EBITA falling short of expectations, Morningstar remains optimistic about Alibaba's long-term prospects" datetime: "2026-03-24T01:50:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280239711.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280239711.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280239711.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280239711.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280239711.md) # Morningstar: Maintains fair value forecast for Alibaba-W at HKD 251, expects rapid e-commerce profitability to advance by one year According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Morningstar released a research report stating that it maintains a fair value forecast of HKD 251 for Alibaba (09988, BABA.US) in the Hong Kong stock market and USD 258 in the US stock market. The stock currently appears to be undervalued, as the market seems to overly underestimate the short-term profit pressures brought by artificial intelligence (AI) and rapid e-commerce investments, while also underestimating the potential growth space brought by AI monetization. Morningstar stated that Alibaba's goal is to achieve a compound annual growth rate of over 40% in external revenue from cloud computing and AI businesses over the next five years, reaching RMB 690 billion, with long-term adjusted EBITA profit margins expected to rise to 20%. The company anticipates that its rapid e-commerce business will achieve positive cash flow in the fiscal year 2028 (ending in March) and become profitable in the fiscal year 2029. The firm maintains its forecast of RMB 656 billion in cloud revenue for Alibaba in the fiscal year 2031 and keeps its expectation of a 20% adjusted EBITA for the fiscal year 2035, consistent with Alibaba's targets. Strong growth will primarily be driven by AI cloud, model-as-a-service (MaaS) products, and AI applications. The firm believes Alibaba is likely to achieve its rapid e-commerce business goals. Based on company guidance, the firm has moved up its expectation for turning losses into profits by one year to the fiscal year 2029. Alibaba will continue to expand its share of the gross merchandise volume (GMV) in the rapid e-commerce business, increase average order value, and enhance profit per order. Last quarter's adjusted EBITA was below expectations, but the firm essentially maintains its outlook for mid-term adjusted EBITA unchanged, as it remains optimistic about Alibaba's long-term prospects. 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