--- title: "Prysm: High inflation and unclear Federal Reserve path, investment deployment should avoid being disturbed by short-term fluctuations" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280245623.md" description: "Arif Husain from Prologis pointed out that recent market fluctuations mainly reflect position adjustments rather than changes in macro fundamentals. Investors should focus on long-term structural factors such as inflation pressures and fiscal deficits. Husain emphasized that the performance of traditional safe-haven assets is being challenged, market differentiation is intensifying, and investment opportunities arise from the relative value of countries and sectors. Adam Marden, on the other hand, holds a cautious view on the inflation outlook, believing that AI has not been able to lower inflation in the short term, and the Federal Reserve's policy path remains uncertain, with future decisions relying on market conditions and economic data" datetime: "2026-03-24T02:43:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280245623.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280245623.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280245623.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280245623.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280245623.md) # Prysm: High inflation and unclear Federal Reserve path, investment deployment should avoid being disturbed by short-term fluctuations According to Zhitong Finance APP, recent market volatility is prompting investors to reassess the macro environment and examine the role of fixed income in their portfolios. Arif Husain, Global Head of Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO, stated that investors should not overly focus on short-term geopolitical shocks. Recent market fluctuations reflect more of a repositioning rather than a fundamental shift in macro fundamentals. In fact, the core drivers that existed before the outbreak of conflict remain unchanged, including inflationary pressures and worsening fiscal deficits. In this context, investors should avoid being disturbed by short-term volatility and focus on the changes in these structural factors over the next 6 to 12 months. He also reminded that in recent years, the market's existing perceptions of traditional safe-haven assets are facing challenges. Government bonds, once regarded as a "safe haven," have failed to provide a stabilizing hedge during periods of market stress, and the correlations between different assets have become harder to predict. In such an environment, investment opportunities are more likely to arise from relative value between countries and sectors, rather than single-direction bets, reflecting an increase in global market divergence. Taking the US dollar as an example, Husain pointed out that its recent strength may not purely reflect safe-haven demand, but is more driven by positioning and commodity factors (such as oil prices denominated in dollars). Analyzing from a more fundamental level, the core factors affecting the dollar have not changed, and the dollar is still inclined to weaken in the medium to long term. Adam Marden, Co-Portfolio Manager of PIMCO's Flexible Global Bond Strategy, shared the following views on inflation prospects, Federal Reserve policy, and market structural changes. Regarding inflation, Marden is cautious about the claim that "artificial intelligence has a deflationary effect." He believes that while AI may enhance productivity in the long run, there are no signs in the short term that it is lowering inflation; rather, it may exert upward pressure on yields by driving real economic growth and increasing input costs (such as a significant rise in memory prices). In terms of monetary policy, he indicated that there is still uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path, and future decisions will continue to rely on market conditions and economic data. If market volatility persists, it is possible that the Federal Reserve may prefer to maintain support for the market rather than reduce its balance sheet. Looking ahead to the next 6 to 12 months, he expects the global yield curve may experience "bear flattening." The factors that have driven down global inflation, led by China, are fading, while rising oil prices are bringing inflationary pressures. 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