---
title: "Goldman Sachs: Expects that the continuous increase in oil and gas prices will drag down global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points and raises the probability of a U.S. economic recession"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280274776.md"
description: "Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the outlook for oil and natural gas prices has been further raised, which will increase global overall inflation by 1 percentage point, raise global core inflation by 0.2 percentage points, and drag down global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points. In an extremely adverse scenario, the impact will be amplified two to three times. The bank noted that while the impact of energy on U.S. growth may be smaller, this coincides with tightening financial conditions and a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is expected that U.S. economic growth will be below trend levels, the unemployment rate will rise, and the probability of a 12-month economic recession has been raised to 30%. The bank still expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December, but has postponed the expectation for the Bank of England to cut rates until 2027, and anticipates the European Central Bank to raise rates in April and June"
datetime: "2026-03-24T07:41:05.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280274776.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280274776.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280274776.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280274776.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280274776.md)


# Goldman Sachs: Expects that the continuous increase in oil and gas prices will drag down global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points and raises the probability of a U.S. economic recession

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the outlook for oil and natural gas prices has been further raised, which will increase global overall inflation by 1 percentage point, raise global core inflation by 0.2 percentage points, and drag down global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points. In an extremely adverse scenario, the impact will be magnified two to three times.

The bank indicated that while the impact of energy on U.S. growth may be smaller, this coincides with tightening financial conditions and a weakening of fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is expected that U.S. economic growth will be below trend levels, the unemployment rate will rise, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has been raised to 30%. The bank still expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December, but has postponed the expectation for the Bank of England to cut rates until 2027, and anticipates that the European Central Bank will raise rates in April and June

### Related Stocks

- [Fidelity MSCI Financials ETF (FNCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FNCL.US.md)
- [The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md)
- [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHR REP 1/1000TH PFD SER A (GS-A.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-A.US.md)
- [The Financial Select Sector SPDR® ETF (XLF.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLF.US.md)
- [iShares US Broker-Dealers&Secs Exchs ETF (IAI.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAI.US.md)
- [Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VFH.US.md)
- [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PRF SER C (GS-C.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-C.US.md)
- [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP REP 1/1000TH PRF D (GS-D.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-D.US.md)

## Related News & Research

- [Allworth Financial LP Buys 3,775 Shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $GS](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280013102.md)
- [Goldman Sachs is shaking up how it cuts low performers this spring](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279833121.md)
- [Corporate quarterly reports could become thing of the past under Trump plan](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279937175.md)
- [ANALYSIS-Wall Street banks with large trading units may be biggest winners under US capital plan](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279921786.md)
- [Goldman Sachs is set to initiate small rounds of head count cuts starting next month - Business Insider](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279833659.md)