--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The gains of the three major stock index futures narrow, Iran: A ceasefire and negotiations are not feasible at this stage" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280475339.md" description: "U.S. stock index futures narrowed their gains as Iran rejected the ceasefire plan proposed by the United States. Dow futures rose 0.75%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.73%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.91%. Meanwhile, major European stock indices generally rose, while WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell. Despite the tense situation in the Middle East, Wall Street remains optimistic about U.S. stock growth, expecting S&P 500 earnings to increase by 20%" datetime: "2026-03-25T12:48:08.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280475339.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280475339.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280475339.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280475339.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280475339.md) # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The gains of the three major stock index futures narrow, Iran: A ceasefire and negotiations are not feasible at this stage 1. On March 25th (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures surged over 1% before the market opened after the U.S. submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran aimed at ending the war, but the gains narrowed after Iran stated it would not accept the ceasefire. As of the time of publication, Dow futures were up 0.75%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.73%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.91%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260325/1774442313858240.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of publication, the German DAX index was up 1.75%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 1.43%, the French CAC 40 index was up 1.67%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 1.63%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260325/1774442374248964.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil was down 4.29%, priced at $88.39 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 4.46%, priced at $95.76 per barrel. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260325/1774442403876913.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **The U.S. proposes a 15-point ceasefire plan, Iran claims that a ceasefire and negotiations are not feasible at this stage.** According to reports, the U.S. government has submitted a "15-point ceasefire plan" through Pakistan to Iran aimed at completely ending the conflict. Subsequently, Trump publicly praised the negotiation process, stating that both sides are engaged in "productive" communication and noted that Iran has begun to show a rational dialogue posture. However, Iran responded by stating that it would not accept a ceasefire and would not enter into any negotiation process with a party that breaches agreements, as negotiating with the U.S. is illogical. Iran also confirmed that the U.S. is indeed intensifying efforts to facilitate a ceasefire. However, Iran does not accept a ceasefire, and under the current circumstances, both a ceasefire and negotiations are not feasible. **The only "consolation" amid geopolitical turmoil: Wall Street remains confident in the roaring growth engine of U.S. stocks, with Morgan Stanley expecting S&P 500 earnings to surge by 20%.** Despite the Middle East conflict stirring global markets this month, some investors still find solace in the growth engine of U.S. companies—this engine is not only intact but also showing robust momentum. Currently, Wall Street sell-side strategists are raising earnings expectations, ignoring concerns about soaring oil prices and potential impacts on consumer demand. Data shows that S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 20% over the next 12 months. Historically, this reading has only been higher than the current level when the U.S. economy is emerging from a recession. Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated in a client report on March 23rd: "This supports our judgment—that the likelihood of this round of rising oil prices ending the economic cycle remains very low." **Iran establishes new regulations for the Strait of Hormuz: vessels must submit crew and cargo details to obtain passage approval.** According to informed sources, vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian protection are required to provide lists of crew and cargo, as well as voyage details and bills of lading, to obtain approval from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Sources familiar with trade interactions indicate that this process remains specific and varies by vessel, but it suggests that as the conflict in the Persian Gulf enters its fourth week, Iran is increasingly striving to strengthen control over this vital maritime passage through a semi-formal system. Insiders report that Iran has requested fees from some (but not all) vessels. They state that these fee requests, communicated through intermediaries and varying in amount, typically target tankers, gas carriers, or other vessels carrying high-value cargo. **Oil prices soar amid disrupted shipping routes, prompting several Asian countries to stockpile aviation fuel in preparation for "supply cuts."** Following the rise in international oil prices due to the conflict in Iran, signs of stockpiling aviation fuel have intensified in several Asian countries, reflecting the increasing supply pressures faced by the aviation industry. The South Korean Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced on Wednesday that domestic airlines have received notifications of refueling restrictions from certain countries, and the government is discussing whether to redirect aviation fuel originally intended for export to the domestic market. The president of Philippine Airlines stated in an interview that the Southeast Asian country may soon implement a fuel rationing system. The Vietnam Civil Aviation Authority has also warned of a potential supply gap for aviation fuel starting in early April and has accordingly reduced flight frequencies. The ongoing conflict in Iran and persistently high oil prices are further exacerbating the procurement challenges for aviation fuel, intensifying the aviation industry's difficulties. **Gavekal Research: The safe-haven attributes of Chinese government bonds are becoming a new global reserve choice outside of U.S. Treasuries.** Research from Gavekal indicates that Chinese government bonds have performed robustly in the wake of recent geopolitical shocks, including the Iran conflict, and are emerging as a viable alternative reserve asset. The report challenges a core assumption of global reserve management, which posits that U.S. Treasuries and the dollar are the "safe havens." Analysts Charles Gave and Louis-Vincent Gave wrote in a report on Tuesday that during the recent tensions in the Middle East, Chinese sovereign bonds have remained strong. The report notes that long-term Chinese government bonds appreciated in the year following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and remained relatively stable in the 12 months following the outbreak of the Ukraine war. In contrast, the performance of U.S. Treasuries, adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations and gold prices, appears less favorable. ## Individual Stock News **Nanobiotix (NBTX.US), whose stock price has surged over 700% in a year, welcomes acquisition catalyst as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) shows interest.** Reports indicate that U.S. pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson is considering making an acquisition offer for a French cancer drug developer, leading to a nearly 7% increase in Nanobiotix (NBTX.US) stock on the Paris stock exchange on Wednesday, with a rise of over 15% in pre-market trading in the U.S. As of the time of publication, the stock has retreated to $4.34. Paris-based Nanobiotix currently maintains a partnership with global healthcare leader Johnson & Johnson, with both parties collaborating to develop and commercialize its next-generation core asset JNJ-1900 (NBTXR3) under a long-term licensing agreement signed in 2023 with the New Jersey-based pharmaceutical company **$6.7 billion acquisition of Terns (TERN.US)! Merck (MRK.US) intensifies cancer pipeline in response to Keytruda patent expiration.** Merck announced on Wednesday that it will acquire biotechnology company Terns Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion. The pharmaceutical giant is currently accelerating the expansion of its cancer drug product line to address the impending patent expiration of its blockbuster therapy Keytruda. Since 2021, Merck has nearly doubled the scale of its late-stage research and development pipeline through in-house development and significant acquisitions. This acquisition will allow Merck to obtain Terns' experimental drug TERN-701, which is being tested for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia—a cancer that originates in the bone marrow and leads to uncontrolled proliferation of leukemia cells. Merck's proposed acquisition price for Terns is $53 per share, a 6% premium over its latest closing price. As of the time of writing, Terns' stock price rose over 5% in pre-market trading. **Investors in the Apple supply chain focus on the "Apple AI narrative," which has finally reached a climax! The highly anticipated Siri AI may debut in June.** As a key component of its previously delayed launch last year, focusing on reintroducing a more personalized version of the Siri AI omnipotent voice assistant, Apple, the leading consumer electronics company in the U.S. with popular product lines like iPhone and iPad, is expected to launch a standalone Siri application and an "Ask Siri" operation button in the upcoming iOS 27 operating system. Apple is currently undergoing a thorough reconstruction of the Siri voice assistant based on cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology and plans to unveil the long-awaited first version of the Siri AI voice assistant at this year's Worldwide Developers Conference in June. **The AI data center chip race adds a new powerhouse! Arm (ARM.US) releases AGI CPU to challenge Nvidia and AMD, targeting $15 billion in sales.** Chip design company Arm Holdings will begin selling its own chips for the first time and expects this business to generate approximately $15 billion in annual revenue over the next five years. Arm announced on Tuesday at an event in San Francisco that Meta Platforms (META.US) will be the first major customer for its chip named AGI CPU. As part of this strategic shift, Arm has set ambitious sales targets for the coming years. The UK-based company expects the revenue from the new chip business to exceed its current focus on intellectual property sales. Arm stated that this will help achieve a total sales figure of approximately $25 billion within five years, which is five times the current amount. The expected earnings per share during this period will reach $9. **The largest IPO in history is approaching! It is reported that SpaceX plans to submit its IPO application as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion.** According to insiders, SpaceX plans to submit its initial public offering (IPO) prospectus to regulators later this week or next week. This confidential submission will officially finalize the IPO plans for the commercial space giant owned by Elon Musk, with the goal of going public in June According to the informed sources, the advisors involved in the preparation work expect that SpaceX may raise over $75 billion in its IPO, higher than the previously reported $50 billion. The company's latest valuation is $1.25 trillion (lower than the previously reported $1.75 trillion). The actual fundraising scale and valuation will be finalized a few weeks before the IPO. Once realized, SpaceX's IPO fundraising scale will break the $29.4 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019, becoming the largest IPO in history. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending March 20. The next day at 04:10 Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2026 Digital Assets Summit ## Related News & Research - [Laopu Gold Co. Ltd. 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