--- title: "Stop talking about overcapacity! The US-Iran war exposes the truth: there is a huge gap in global new energy, and many countries are targeting China's advanced industrial chain" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280498478.md" description: "The US-Israel war has triggered fluctuations in fossil energy prices, exacerbating the energy security crisis. International experts at the China Development Forum pointed out that there is not an oversupply of global new energy, but rather a significant gap. China, with its complete new energy industrial chain and technological advantages, has become a core force in filling the global gap. Experts warn that the risks of over-reliance on fossil fuels are becoming apparent, with global oil reserves only sufficient to last three to four months. The surge in energy prices will lead to economic losses and intensified inflation. Countries like Vietnam are accelerating their transition to new energy to ensure energy security" datetime: "2026-03-25T15:08:18.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280498478.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280498478.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280498478.md) --- # Stop talking about overcapacity! The US-Iran war exposes the truth: there is a huge gap in global new energy, and many countries are targeting China's advanced industrial chain Every reporter: Zhang Hong, Zhang Rui The image is suspected to be AI-generated Recently, the Israel-Hamas war has caused drastic fluctuations in fossil energy prices, and the energy security crisis continues to be highlighted. In response to the claim of "China's new energy capacity surplus," several international authoritative experts explicitly refuted this at the China Development Forum 2026 annual meeting and reached a consensus. The experts pointed out that the current global new energy supply is not excessive; rather, it faces a significant gap. Whether in developed economies or developing countries, the demand for new energy is far from being met. With the world's most complete new energy industrial chain, leading technology, and cost advantages, China has become a core force in filling the global gap and ensuring world energy security. The key issue in the new energy industry is not "too much," but "far from enough." **1** Over-reliance on fossil fuels Risks highlighted "The situation in the Middle East highlights the risks of over-reliance on fossil fuels. Therefore, countries that have invested heavily in renewable energy such as wind and solar are less affected by the crisis," said John Quelch, the American president of Duke Kunshan University, in an on-site interview with the Daily Economic News reporter (hereinafter referred to as the reporter). In March, the Israel-Hamas war escalated, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz was obstructed, and international crude oil prices surged, with Brent crude oil briefly exceeding $120 per barrel, an increase of over 60% compared to before the conflict. As a key raw material in the upstream manufacturing sector and a core energy source required for freight and computing power, the drastic fluctuations in crude oil prices quickly transmitted across various industries. John Quelch believes that the current situation is extremely severe. Global oil reserves are only sufficient to last for three to four months, with a daily supply interruption of 20 million barrels, accounting for one-fifth of global daily crude oil consumption. Once reserves are depleted, it will lead to severe economic losses. The surge in energy prices will affect all industries, resulting in cost-push inflation that is difficult to dissipate in the short term and significant interest rate hikes. Increased oil expenditures will significantly impact international trade and reduce investment enthusiasm. **2** New energy supply Gap evident For this reason, more countries and enterprises are refocusing their attention on new energy. On March 20, Vietnam announced it would accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, build charging infrastructure, and promote the use of biofuels to reduce dependence on imported oil products and ensure national energy security. On the same day, market rumors indicated that the Tesla team plans to procure a large scale of Chinese photovoltaic equipment, involving several listed companies. This news was confirmed by a photovoltaic company, which revealed that the contract scale is in the gigawatt range The CEO of Rio Tinto Group, a global comprehensive mineral resource supplier, Jakob Stausholm, stated at the forum that whether it is artificial intelligence data centers, electric vehicles, or the industrialization process of emerging economies, a stable power supply is essential. Therefore, energy must be affordable, reliable, and must also be green and clean energy. Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the School of Public Policy at The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), told reporters that from the perspective of the current energy crisis, the development of new energy globally is far from sufficient. There is a huge demand for new energy in many developing countries, and the supply of new energy from developed economies such as Europe and the United States is also far from meeting actual needs. From an objective demand perspective, the development of global new energy has just begun, and the gap remains enormous. Li Xiang, Deputy Director of the Ordos Institute of Energy Research at Peking University, who previously served as a project officer at the International Energy Agency (IEA) China Liaison Office, revealed in an interview that he still has a lot of cooperation and communication with the IEA. In response to similar geopolitical shocks, the IEA's approach is: first, in the short term, for countries with high external dependence and high fossil energy ratios, ensuring stable supply is the primary task; second, advocating for OECD countries to strengthen oil interconnection agreements to ensure short-term supply security; third, focusing on enhancing the resilience of energy supply in the medium to long term; and fourth, the long-term goal (after 2030) is to significantly increase the proportion of renewable energy and new power systems in energy supply, gradually reducing dependence on fossil energy, especially oil and gas, and transitioning to a new energy system centered on wind and solar storage. **3** Supply Gap Transmission to Upstream Wei Jieming, Chairman of the Singapore multinational commodity trading company Trafigura, believes that the signals from the demand side are very clear. "Every solar panel, every wind turbine, and every battery module relies on the mining, processing, and transportation of metals, and the quantity of metals required is enormous. Every gigawatt of offshore wind power requires up to 5,000 tons of zinc, and every gigawatt of solar power generation requires about 9,000 tons of aluminum. The metal content of an electric vehicle is about four times that of a traditional fuel vehicle, especially copper. As the scale of electric vehicles expands in Europe, South America, Asia, and other regions, the demand for related metals will continue to rise with the increase of millions of vehicles. According to the IEA, total demand for metals is expected to increase sixfold by 2050; for lithium and cobalt, the increase will be close to 40 times," Wei Jieming pointed out. Jonathan Price, President and CEO of Canadian mining company Teck Resources, believes that the global demand for metal resources related to new energy is increasingly exceeding supply, and it is expected that by 2035, the related supply-demand gap will approach 30% **4** Multinational Companies Focus on China's New Energy At a critical juncture for filling gaps, multinational companies have shown a strong interest in China's new energy. The president and CEO of Danfoss Group, a global leader in electrification, digitalization, and smart manufacturing based in Denmark, Fang Jian, stated in an interview with reporters from Daily Economic News that data centers not only provide strong momentum for the high-quality development of the digital economy but have also become a strategic hub connecting digital infrastructure and energy systems, with their importance increasingly highlighted. Although data centers are often seen as "energy guzzlers," through technologies such as energy efficiency improvements, waste heat recovery, and flexible scheduling, they can shed their identity as a single energy-consuming entity and achieve deep integration with energy systems, fully unleashing their collaborative value as "new energy assets." China plays a crucial role in the global energy transition and has deeply integrated the concept of green and low-carbon development into its long-term national development strategy. With a comprehensive energy policy system, China has built the world's largest installed capacity and power supply capability for renewable energy, laying a solid foundation for the deep integration of data centers and energy systems. The "East Data, West Computing" project, a visionary national strategic layout, cleverly connects the rapidly growing computing power demand in the east with the abundant clean energy resources in the west, effectively promoting the integrated development of the digital economy and green energy, showcasing the Chinese path of collaborative evolution between digital infrastructure and energy systems. China's practices not only serve its own high-quality development but are also expected to provide a replicable and scalable "green computing power" new model for the world. "We are increasingly utilizing solutions developed in China to help reduce emissions throughout our entire operational process," said Qiao De. Wei Jieming pointed out that China's solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries support energy security in Europe and Northeast Asia, and promote energy accessibility in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Countries in these regions that would have taken decades to build energy capacity can now transition much more rapidly. The CEO and executive director of CLP Holdings Limited, one of the largest private power companies in the Asia-Pacific region based in Kowloon, Hong Kong, Jiang Dongqiang, stated that Hong Kong has always imported electricity from Daya Bay, with the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant meeting about 1/4 of local electricity demand for a long time. In the context of a complex international situation and fluctuating energy supply, the advantages of nuclear power in terms of supply reliability and price stability have become more apparent. Renowned climate change economist and professor at the London School of Economics, Nicholas Stern, pointed out that China's energy transition investment in 2024 will exceed that of the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom combined, which is remarkable and demonstrates leadership. China's solar capacity has driven a threefold increase in global installed capacity. Some say there is overcapacity in China, but I believe it is not a matter of overcapacity, but rather whether (China's new energy) can effectively meet the world's enormous demand Coincidentally, Zheng Yongnian also pointed out that the development of new energy globally is far from sufficient, so the key to "anti-involution" actually lies in "going out." **5** Can China's new energy become the "new anchor point" for global energy security? Zheng Yongnian believes that if the international community wants to develop new energy, it must inevitably cooperate with Chinese enterprises, as China is in a leading position globally in the photovoltaic industry. Wang Huiyao, chairman of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) and former counselor of the State Council, pointed out in an interview with reporters from the Economic Journal that China is in a leading position in the new energy sector, being the largest manufacturer of photovoltaic, wind power equipment, and energy storage batteries in the world, and will continue to play a leading role in the future. At the same time, China will also share its development achievements with the world, providing new development directions and support for many developing countries through technology transfer and innovation. This is an important area where China will make greater contributions to the world in the future. What leading advantages does China's new energy industry have? Technology Zhang Chuanwei, founder and chairman of Mingyang Group: 80% of the world's solar power installations and over 60% of wind power equipment and technology come from China. Cost Wei Jieming: China manufactures the vast majority of solar panels in the world, and the cost of solar power generation has decreased by more than 90% since 2010, with battery cell costs also rapidly declining. Zhang Chuanwei: In recent years, the unit cost of offshore wind power in China has decreased by 60%, with the price per kilowatt-hour reaching 0.3 yuan, and solar power costing less than 0.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour. In Djibouti, a northeastern African country, 400MW of new energy can meet the entire country's energy demand, but in the past, it relied on long-term electricity purchases at a price equivalent to 1.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour, and using new energy can reduce the cost by half. Li Xiang: From the perspective of industrial competitiveness, China has high-quality products and significant cost advantages in wind power, photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and energy storage. The demand from foreign enterprises for Chinese wind and solar products and new energy electric vehicles has significantly increased, indirectly creating greater overseas investment opportunities for Chinese companies. Currently, as global energy security issues become more prominent, countries with insufficient oil self-sufficiency need to accelerate energy transformation, which requires a large amount of advanced and cost-controllable equipment, providing a good opportunity for Chinese enterprises to go abroad. Scale National Energy Administration: By the end of 2025, China's total installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 2.34 billion kilowatts, establishing the world's largest renewable energy system. Full industry chain, full scenario coverage Li Xiang: The issue of energy security is far more complex than just installed capacity. Taking photovoltaics as an example, its power generation has obvious time characteristics: more generation at noon and less in the early morning and evening; more in summer and less in winter. Its volatility means that even with a huge installed capacity, it cannot ensure continuous supply during every peak energy usage period. Therefore, in addition to wind and solar installations, it is also necessary to match energy storage resources, demand-side response mechanisms, and inter-regional grid mutual assistance capabilities. For example, turning some originally inflexible loads, such as steelmaking and coal chemical industries, into adjustable flexible loads; For example, transmitting wind and solar power from the northwest region to East China, or transmitting hydropower from the southwest to the central region, can be achieved by constructing cross-regional major corridors to realize energy mutual assistance. Currently, China occupies a significant portion of the global market in wind power, energy storage, especially in the photovoltaic industry chain, and is the only country in the world with a relatively complete new energy industry chain, supported by a strong manufacturing base. Zhang Chuanwei: China's new energy coverage ranges from onshore to offshore, from ultra-high temperatures to ultra-low temperatures, from grid-connected to off-grid, from green electricity direct supply to zero-carbon parks, and from large bases in "deserted areas" to deep-sea typhoon zones, constructing a complete industrial ecosystem of "wind, solar, storage, and hydrogen" under different climate environments, resource endowments, operating conditions, and application scenarios, compatible with global new energy equipment technology and overall solutions. Policy Certainty Li Xiang: Compared to other countries, China has a firm stance on low-carbon issues. Under the "3060" carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, China has consistently and resolutely promoted related work, with the carbon market construction continuously deepening, and carbon quota indicators for high energy-consuming and high-emission industries gradually tightening. The "14th Five-Year Plan" has clearly proposed a target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17%, reflecting China's firm commitment to emission reduction. This strategic determination is particularly valuable in a world of turmoil. While other countries' policies are fluctuating, China continues to steadily advance in the low-carbon direction, and will undoubtedly occupy an advantageous position in the low-carbon field and international cooperation in the future. Zheng Yongnian: The current world situation is full of uncertainties, while China's development increasingly shows certainty. China is responding to global uncertainties with its own certainty. Because of this, not only are entrepreneurs coming to China, but many political figures from European countries and Canada have also recently visited China. Development cannot be separated from certainty; without certainty, how can there be development? Reporter | Zhang Hong, Zhang Rui Zhang Yiming Visual | Liu Qingyan Typesetting | Zhang Yiming Overall planning | Li Biao, Yi Qijiang **** **｜Daily Economic News nbdnews original article｜** **Reprinting, excerpting, copying, and mirroring without permission is prohibited.** Daily Economic News ### Related Stocks - [159875.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159875.CN.md) - [516160.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/516160.CN.md) - [02809.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02809.HK.md) - [09809.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09809.HK.md) - [ICLN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ICLN.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [IEA says solar and wind to surpass nuclear in 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286370655.md) - [Solar set to overtake coal by 2032 amid AI power boom](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286954888.md) - [ZAWYA: Energy Development Oman raises additional funding in the international capital markets](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286757157.md) - [Sitharaman, US envoy Gor discuss deepening India-US economic partnership](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287091160.md) - [UK Moves To Ban New North Sea Oil & Gas Licenses Permanently](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286646374.md)