---
title: "The \"anti-involution\" trend is expected to promote the healthy development of the coking coal industry, with the coal ETF Guotai (515220) rising over 1.2% during the trading session"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280561311.md"
description: "The trend of \"anti-involution\" is expected to promote the healthy development of the coking coal industry, with the coal ETF Cathay (515220) rising over 1.2% during intraday trading on March 26. Zheshang Securities pointed out that global coking coal supply is contracting, with an expected CAGR of -0.7% for global coking coal production from 2025 to 2030. The increase in domestic pig iron production and the recovery in demand for building materials may help to rectify the supply-demand mismatch in coking coal. Overseas factors, such as Russia's suspension of coal exports, will also impact supply. The coking coal/crude oil price ratio is at a ten-year low, indicating that coal prices are undervalued, and it is expected that companies will actively replenish their inventories. This ETF tracks the China Securities Coal Index, reflecting the overall performance of the coal industry"
datetime: "2026-03-26T03:33:12.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280561311.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280561311.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280561311.md)
---

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# The "anti-involution" trend is expected to promote the healthy development of the coking coal industry, with the coal ETF Guotai (515220) rising over 1.2% during the trading session

The "anti-involution" trend is expected to promote the healthy development of the coking coal industry. On March 26, the Coal ETF Guotai (515220) rose over 1.2% during trading.

Zheshang Securities pointed out that global coking coal supply is contracting, with key coal-producing countries experiencing a decline in supply or limited incremental growth. It is expected that the global coking coal production CAGR from 2025 to 2030 will be -0.7%. Meanwhile, the crude steel production CAGR during the same period is expected to be 0.9%, with coking coal demand steadily increasing, presenting a "weak supply and strong demand" pattern, and the price center is expected to rise. Domestically, the increase in pig iron production, the recovery in construction material demand, and the rise in national cement prices are driving construction material demand, while the resumption of production in steel mills may restore the mismatch between coal and coke supply and demand.

On the overseas front, the inverted pricing of overseas coking coal continues, Russia has suspended coal exports, and a decrease in overseas coal imports is expected; overseas steel prices are running at high levels, which is likely to increase domestic steel exports. In addition, the coking coal/crude oil price ratio is at a ten-year low, and coal prices are relatively undervalued; the rise in crude oil prices is also driving an improvement in coking profits, and companies are expected to actively replenish their inventories. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industry self-discipline and capacity regulation, and the "anti-involution" trend may continue, promoting the healthy and orderly development of the coking coal industry.

The Coal ETF Guotai (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed company securities involved in coal mining and processing from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets as index samples, using an equal-weight distribution method to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry. This index has high dividend attributes and strong cyclical characteristics, with constituent stocks covering sub-sectors such as thermal coal and coking coal, allowing it to accurately reflect the dynamic changes in the coal industry.

Daily Economic News

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