--- title: "The Middle East undergoes new changes, and U.S. stocks have fallen for 5 consecutive weeks! Tomorrow, how will A-shares perform?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/280895732.md" description: "The complexity of the Middle East situation has led to a continuous decline in the US stock market for five weeks, while the A-share market has shown some recovery after experiencing fluctuations. Although indicators such as the SSE Index have accumulated losses this week, 2,220 stocks have risen, demonstrating market resilience. Analysts believe that the A-share market may face volatility in the short term, but the possibility of a rebound cannot be ruled out. Investors should adopt coping strategies and focus on market support levels rather than emotional trading" datetime: "2026-03-29T04:18:16.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280895732.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280895732.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280895732.md) --- # The Middle East undergoes new changes, and U.S. stocks have fallen for 5 consecutive weeks! Tomorrow, how will A-shares perform? Every reporter: Xiao Ruidong Every editor: Zhao Yun In the past trading week (from March 23 to 27), the A-share market experienced some fluctuations. The good news is that although the market overall still accumulated a decline this week (as indicated by the SSE Index, Wind All A, and other indicators), the weekly candlestick formed a long lower shadow, suggesting that it may have passed the "most dangerous moment," and sentiment has shown good recovery. ##### Wind All A Weekly Candlestick In terms of individual stocks, 2,220 stocks rose this week, marking the "best" performance since March. In terms of sectors, the lithium battery industry chain and other directions have also shown relatively sustained profit effects. The bad news is that the **Middle East situation, which seemed to ease during Friday's trading and once supported the strength of the Asia-Pacific market, became complicated after the close,** even leading to another sharp decline in U.S. stocks. As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.67%, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 2.15%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.73%. Thus, **the three major U.S. stock indices recorded a five-week losing streak.** Among them, the NASDAQ fell 3.23% this week, the S&P 500 index fell 2.12%, and the Dow fell 0.90%. As of the time of writing, there are no obvious signs of easing from the weekend news (which will be summarized below). **This actually poses a dilemma for investors:** It is known that the market's sharp decline on Monday (which was also a three-day decline) was corrected in the following four days—**"there is a bottom below"** has thus been confirmed. ##### SSE Index Weekly Candlestick **So next week, will the market be affected by the weekend situation and once again stage a "bottom-fishing rebound"?** **If so, will Monday's script be "bottom-fishing," or will the correction be completed directly during the trading session?** **If not, how long do you think the seesaw effect of "oil rising and stocks falling" will continue?** Indeed, this is a short-term speculative point, but the strategy of "not predicting, only responding" is actually more suitable for many people at present. To put it more straightforwardly, if the market needs to adjust further, we can also **believe in the resilience of A-shares and take action at the most likely support level (which is also the most likely rebound point),** rather than impulsively chasing highs or selling out of emotion **Zhongtai Securities** believes that since March, the A-shares have experienced fluctuations and declines, going through a process of "adjustment - rebound - secondary decline." The index trends are dominated by overseas factors, with the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and stagflation trading being the main themes for the month; in the technology sector, upstream resilience is prominent, while in the cyclical sector, the energy chain is strengthening. Looking ahead, **the short-term market may still face fluctuations, but there is no systemic risk of significant decline.** Structurally, it may revolve around sectors with strong independence and prosperity. Therefore, in terms of allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to the defensive attributes of dividend assets and to layout recovery varieties after the marginal convergence of geopolitical risks. **Guosen Securities** research report believes that this round of bull market began on September 24, 2024, and the macro background is similar to the bull market that started on May 19, 1999, both driven by macro policies aimed at combating deflation. **Bull markets often turn into bear markets during times of macroeconomic deterioration and excessive market sentiment, and currently, neither of these conditions is met.** Compared to historical bull market peaks, the current bull market's time and market sentiment have not yet reached extremes. From the perspective of the duration of the rise, the three typical A-share bull markets mentioned earlier lasted more than 24 months, with the Wind All A average rising by 151%; as of March 23, this round of market has only lasted 18 months, with the Wind All A index rising by 58%, indicating there is still considerable room compared to historical bull market durations. From the perspective of market sentiment, as of March 23, the overall A-share PE is 21.7 times, and the risk premium rate is 2.8%, which is still somewhat lower than the historical bull market peaks in 2007, 2010, 2015, and 2021, indicating that current market sentiment has not yet reached extremes. **So how should we understand this round of pullback?** It states that according to wave theory, a bull market can be divided into 5 waves, with waves 1, 3, and 5 being upward waves, and waves 2 and 4 being pullback waves. Therefore, the severe adjustment that occurs in the later stages of a bull market corresponds to the 4th wave adjustment. From a technical analysis perspective, the Shanghai Composite Index at 2689 points on September 24, 2024, is the starting point of the 1st wave of this bull market, and the 3040 points on April 7 of last year correspond to the starting point of the 3rd wave rise, while the market is currently likely in the 4th wave adjustment phase. If we compare this round of bull market originating from "924" in 2024 with the bull market of "519" in 1999, the adjustment since January 2026 may be similar to the adjustment from August 2000 to February 2001. "If the current low caused by geopolitical conflicts is the bottom area for the market for the year, there may be new highs in the future from the perspective of amplitude." Next, let's **take a look at the weekend news.** **(1) Middle East Situation** On the evening of March 27, Beijing time, the news of **"US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian steel mills and supporting power plants"** directly triggered a decline in US stocks. Earlier, the news that "Iran said it had turned back three ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz" had already begun to raise market tensions. Here, we summarize media reports and roughly outline the subsequent timeline (as of the morning of March 29, Beijing time). **(2) Other News** **In response to the turmoil in the energy market, Russia plans to implement a temporary ban on gasoline exports starting April 1.** **In the first three months of this year, the total value of innovative drug licensing transactions in China exceeded $60 billion, approaching half of the total for the entire year of 2025.** **China's nuclear medicine field has achieved a key breakthrough.** The Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, relying on the large scientific facility China Spallation Neutron Source, has recently achieved the first mass production of medical-grade alpha isotopes at the curie level, which will accelerate the transition of China's self-developed alpha nuclear medicine from laboratory to clinical application. **The search volume for the term "Token" reached a peak of 77,000 times in one day, an increase of 1850% compared to last year's average daily search volume.** **Company Announcements** Great Wall Motors: Plans to use no more than 43.5 billion yuan of its own funds to purchase low to medium-risk financial products. BYD: Plans to use no more than 60 billion yuan of its idle funds for entrusted wealth management. TCL Technology: Plans to use no more than 35.5 billion yuan of its own funds for entrusted wealth management in 2026. Next week's news will mainly focus on two major events. **March 31, Tuesday** **March PMI data will be released.** Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from January; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from January; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from January. Analysts indicated that in February, seasonal factors were still affecting the manufacturing sector, leading to a slowdown in manufacturing operations. However, this slowdown is temporary, and positive changes are still accumulating. In March, as the impact of the Spring Festival holiday gradually fades and temperatures rise, factories and construction sites will fully resume operations, and the economy and society will return to normal operating conditions. **April 1, Wednesday** **According to the announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, starting from this date, the VAT export rebate for products such as photovoltaics will be canceled.** Analysts believe that this cancellation of the rebate was anticipated by the industry. The cancellation of export rebates will exert short-term pressure on exporting companies, accelerating the internal motivation for companies to engage in global capacity layout, thereby promoting the Chinese photovoltaic industry to gradually move away from the "low-price competition" model towards a "technology pricing" high-quality development track. In the future, the penetration speed of advanced technology routes such as TOPCon 3.0, BC, and perovskite will accelerate, ushering the industry into a new development stage driven by technology. 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